TATTALIN SATI NA SATI NA 01/02 - 05/02 | SHUGABAN MAGANGANUN KYAUTA YA FADI DUK FIFITA GDP NA TURAI DOMIN Q4 ZUWA A CIKIN SOSAI WANDA AKA YI tsammanin

Janairu 29 • Shin Yanayin ne Duk da haka AbokinKa • Ra'ayoyin 2286 • Comments Off akan SNAPSHOT NA MAKON SATI 01/02 - 05/02 | SHUGABAN MAGANGANUN KYAUTA YA FADI DUK GIF YADDA GDP YAYI SHI ZUWA Q4 ZUWA CIKIN KYAU WANDA AKA YI tsammani

Ya kasance mako guda na GDP a wannan makon. Karatun GDP na Tattalin Arzikin Amurka na GDP na ƙarshe na 2020 ya zo ne a -3.5%, mafi munin aiki tun 1946 da aka rubuta a lokacin bayan WW2.

Tsarin Q4 na cigaban GDP na Amurka ya shigo da kashi 4%, daidai akan hasashen da kuma dawowa daga mummunan saurin dawo da 33% COVID-19 wanda aka rubuta a Q3 kafin Amurka ta fara maimaita takamaiman bangarorin tattalin arziki (da al'umma).

A safiyar Jumma'a, Faransa da Jamus sun buga ƙididdigar GDP na Q4 2020. Manazarta da 'yan kasuwa suna duban waɗannan bayanan don nuna saurin dawo da Yankin Nahiyar Turai.

Jamus ta ba kasuwanni mamaki ta hanyar sanya adadi na ci gaba na 0.1% a cikin Q4, kodayake don 2020 tattalin arziƙin ya ragu da -5%. Faransa ta sami ragowar -1.3% raguwa a Q4, mafi kyau fiye da hasashen -4% kuma yana zuwa bayan rikodin 18% girma a Q3. GDP na Spain shima ya doke hasashe, yana zuwa da kashi 0.3% cikin ɗari na ƙarshen kwata na 2020.

Koyaya, duka biranen Faransa da na Jamus na baya-bayan nan game da annoba sun tattara ƙarfi a ƙarshen Disamba; sabili da haka, sabon alkaluman GDP ba za su iya nuna ci gaba mai ɗorewa ba Q1 2021 ma'auni zai kasance mummunan saboda sabon zagaye na kullewa a duk cikin ƙungiyar kasuwanci da yankin EU mafi girma. Kamar Burtaniya, Faransa da Jamus suma suna fuskantar koma bayan tattalin arziki sau biyu a cikin Q1 2021.

Icesididdigar kuɗaɗen Turai sun faɗi ƙasa lokacin da kasuwanni suka buɗe a ranar Juma'a amma sun sami koma baya sau ɗaya bayan da aka buga bayanan Eurozone GDP. Da karfe 9:30 na safe agogon UK DAX yayi ciniki -0.77%, CAC yayi kasa -0.88% da UK FTSE 100 down -0.69%. DAX da CAC yanzu suna kasuwanci a cikin yanki mara kyau kowace shekara, yayin da FTSE 100 ya karu da 0.50%.

Nan gaba ga kasuwannin hada-hadar Amurka suna nuna faduwa da zarar New York ta buɗe yau da yamma, SPX 500 sun yi ciniki -1.04% da NASDAQ 100 sun sauka -1.53%. Idan waɗancan matakan suka ci gaba a buɗewar kasuwar, waɗannan manyan kasuwannin Amurka za su juye da mummunan yanayi kowace shekara. A kowane mako SPX yana ƙasa -2.35%, kuma NASDAQ yana ƙasa -2.55%.

Matsakaiciyar siyarwa ta wannan makon a yawancin kasuwannin yammacin duniya na iya zama saboda dalilai huɗu.

1. Taron bada agaji na Biden ya kare. Masu sharhi da masu saka jari suna tunanin manyan ayyukan da dole ne shugaban ya gabatar a cikin tattalin arziki da zamantakewar al'umma, yayin gabatar da allurar rigakafi ga ɗaruruwan miliyoyin 'yan ƙasar Amurka.
2. Lockididdigar ɓangarorin daban-daban a cikin Turai da Amurka sun saɓa duk wani ci gaba na ci gaba. A halin yanzu, takaddama mara izini game da samar da rigakafi da rarrabawa sun ɓarke ​​tsakanin Burtaniya da EU.
3. Amfani da riba na iya faruwa. Bayan gagarumin ci gaban da aka samu a cikin 2020, ba abin mamaki ba ne idan masu saka jari da yawa (musamman masu saka jari na kasuwa) suka yi kwalliya a cikin kwakwalwar su kuma suka yi nesa da teburin.
4. Babban tashin hankalin da ake samu a ranar-ciniki zai iya zama mai ban tsoro. Yawancin 'yan kasuwa na Amurka sun sami dama ga kasuwar zaɓuɓɓuka ta hanyar dandamali na gameda kamar Robin Hood's don taimakawa tura hannun jari (musamman hannun jari na fasaha) zuwa manyan matakan. Yanzu da ana buga albashi yana da wuya a ba da hujjar kimantawa bisa ƙididdigar yawan kuɗin da ake samu.

USD ya tashi a cikin mako yayin da ɗanyen mai ke kula da ribar kwanan nan

Dalar Amurka ta sami riba mai tsoka tare da takwarorinta a cikin makon. Masu saka hannun jari da 'yan kasuwa a cikin USD sun sami ƙarfafawa daga shugaban Tarayyar Tarayyar Jerome Powell na kwanan nan game da manufofin kuɗin da yake niyyar kulawa. Fed bai kara shirin hada-hada / QE ba kuma Mr Powell shima ya nuna babu wani canji ga canjin kudi na 0.25% na yanzu akan matsakaiciyar lokaci.

Indexididdigar dala DXY ta kasance sama da 0.27% yayin zaman farko na ranar Juma'a kuma ya tashi sama da 0.57% kowane mako, yana riƙe matsayi sama da maɓallin 90.00 maɓallin-matakin a 90.70. EUR / USD ya yi ƙasa -0.54% kowane mako yayin ciniki kusa da lebur kuma kusa da maɓallin pivot na yau da kullun yayin zaman Landan-Turai na Jumma'a.

GBP / USD sun ƙaddamar da nasarorin da aka samu a cikin makon a ƙasa -0.11%. A farkon zaman ranar Juma'a masu hada-hadar kudin sun yi ciniki -0.38% yayin da suke barazanar keta S1.

Amintaccen tsari na JPY da CHF ya ɓace a wannan makon. USD / JPY ya tashi sama da 1.09% kowane mako sama da 0.51% a ranar. USD / CHF yana sama da 0.53% kowane mako kuma ya tashi 0.10% a ranar. USD kuma ya sake bayyana asarar da aka yi kwanan nan game da kuɗin antipodean a wannan makon; AUD / USD ya sauka -0.90%, kuma NZD / USD yana ƙasa -0.22% kowane mako.

Danyen mai ya tashi sosai a 2021. Man fetur don ci gaban duniya ya tashi da 8.25% YTD da 8.54% kowane wata. Wannan tashin ya ragu a wannan makon, ya koma zuwa 0.48%. Kasuwannin sun tanadi kaya a watannin hunturu da kuma isar da kayayyaki a Turai da Amurka, kuma bisa ga ra'ayin IMF a wannan makon ci gaban duniya ba zai dawo ba har sai an yi allurar rigakafin kuma an tabbatar da aiki.

Karafa masu daraja sun sami wadataccen arziki a wannan makon. Zinare yana ciniki kusa da lebur na mako, ƙasa -0.06% amma ya tashi 0.76% a ranar Juma'a a $ 1,853 a kowace oza. Azurfa ya tashi da ƙarfi a wannan makon, ya tashi da kashi 6.18% a mako kuma ya tashi sama da kashi 2.31% a ranar Juma’a don yin ciniki a $ 26.95 a cikin oza.

Abubuwan kalanda don saka idanu yayin makon farawa Lahadi, Janairu 31

On Litinin, Fabrairu 1, da yawa PMIs na IHS Markit masana'antu na Turai ana bugawa. Italiya, Faransa, Jamus da yankin Yammacin Turai ya kamata faduwa a watan Janairu.

Markit ya kuma yi hasashen Burtaniya ta bayyana koma baya. Koyaya, duk karatun kasashen yakamata ya kasance sama da matakan 50 wanda ke raba kwangila daga girma. Yarda da jinginar gida, lamunin mabukaci da farashin gidan ana bugawa don Burtaniya yayin zaman safiya, kuma yakamata duk karatun uku ya kasance kusa da adadi na baya.

Kasuwancin ISM na PMIs na Kanada da Amurka za'a buga su da rana. Kudin aikin gini a cikin Amurka na iya faduwa zuwa kashi 0.5% lokacin da adabin Disamba zai buga.

Kudin Aussie zai kasance cikin bin kadin yayin Talata ta Zama na Sydney kamar yadda RBA ya bayyana shawarar ƙimar sha'awa. Adadin ya kamata ya canza ba a 0.1% ba.

Yayin da aka bude zaman London-Turai, za a buga sabon alkaluman GDP na kasar Italiya. Manazarta sun yi hasashen faduwar shekara-shekara -5.8% da Q2 2020 na -2.3%. Reuters yayi hasashen ragu a cikin GDP na EA zuwa -6.0% a cikin 2020 da -2.2% na Q4.

Ayyukan PMH na IHS na Turai za a raba su yayin Ranar Laraba London-Turai zaman. Faransa, Spain, Italia da EA za su nuna faduwa a cewar masu sharhi a Reuters da Bloomberg.

Ayyukan PMI na Burtaniya zasu sami mafi munin lalacewa, ana tsammanin zai zo a 38.8 a cikin Janairu, ya faɗi daga 49.4 a cikin Disamba. Irin wannan faɗuwarwar na iya tasiri akan ƙimar GBP da takwarorinta lokacin da aka watsa bayanai. A cewar masu sharhi, hauhawar farashin Turai zai iya hawa zuwa 0.1% a kowace shekara kuma ya tashi da kashi 0.5% a cikin Janairu.

Ayyukan sabis na Markit ga Amurka ya kamata su nuna ci gaba a cikin Janairu, kuma haɗin zai iya shigowa a 58, da kyau sama da matakan raguwa na 50. Lambar aikin ADP ana hasashe a 50K, ingantaccen ci gaba dangane da -123K karatu a baya. Lafiyayyar Markit ɗin da aka ƙara don ƙarfafa lambobin aiki na iya tasiri tasirin darajar USD akan takwarorinta.

An gabatar da PMI na gini Alhamis ga Jamus da Burtaniya, ba a dakatar da ginawa ba yayin kullewar Burtaniya; saboda haka, karatun zai kasance sama da 50 a 54.6 a cewar masu sharhi. Bankin Ingila na Burtaniya zai bayyana kudurin sabon kudin ruwa kuma zai ba da shawara idan akwai wani canji ga shirin QE. Duk batutuwan manufofin kudi su kasance basu canza ba.

Adadin mako-mako na rashin aikin yi ga Amurka ana samun shi ta BLS a yammacin Alhamis, sabbin karatun sun faɗi ƙasa da 900K a mako, kuma fatan wannan yanayin zai ci gaba da nuna raguwa. A cewar manazarta, ya kamata umarnin masana'antu su nuna alamun ci gaba; ma'aunin zai tashi daga 1% zuwa 1.7% na Janairu. Kyakkyawan fata da waɗannan adadi biyu suka haifar na iya tasiri ƙimar USD.

On Jumma'a za mu karɓi na biyu na bayanan NFP na 2021. Bayan adadin na Janairu ya ƙunshi ayyukan watan Disamba, na Fabrairu zai zama mafi gaskiya game da ayyukan da aka kirkira a cikin tattalin arziƙin duniya mafi girma. Manazarta sun yi hasashen ayyukan 80K kawai da aka kirkira, haɓakawa daga gigice -140K asarar aikin da aka yi a baya. Adadin rashin aikin yi na Amurka ya kamata ya kasance a 6.7%, yayin da na Kanada ya kamata ya faɗi daga 8.8% zuwa 8.7%. Sabuwar masana'anta tana ba da umarni ga bayanai daga Jamus, daidaiton kasuwancin Faransa, tallan tallan Italiya, da farashin gidan Burtaniya (a cewar bankin Nationwide) karatu ne da zai iya shafar darajar EUR da GBP idan sakamakon ya ɓace ko ya doke tsinkayen manazarta.

« Wall Street ya murmure duk da mawuyacin hali a Amurka na -3.5%, mafi munin karatu tun daga 1940s Masu sa hannun jari da 'yan kasuwa zasu nemi umarnin manufofin kudi daga Fed, BoE da RBA don tallafawa ra'ayi »