Dalar Amurka za ta kasance ana bincikarta sosai a ranar Laraba, yayin da FOMC ke sanar da shawarar yanke shawara na ƙarshe na ƙarshen 2017
Da karfe 19:00 na dare agogon GMT, a ranar Laraba 13 ga Disamba, FOMC za ta bayyana sabon kudurin da ta yanke game da mahimmin kudin ruwa ga Amurka. A halin yanzu a cikin 1.25% ra'ayi na gaba ɗaya, wanda aka tattara daga masana tattalin arziƙin da kamfanonin dillancin labarai na Reuters da Bloomberg suka bincika, shi ne cewa maɓallin kewayawa (babba babba) zai tashi zuwa 1.5%. Haɓakawa ta uku a wannan shekara za ta kammala ƙaddamar da FOMC / Fed don haɓaka ƙimar sau uku a cikin 2017, fara aiwatar da daidaituwa, wanda zai iya ganin ƙimar asali ya tashi zuwa 3% a cikin 2018.
Ya zuwa yanzu tattalin arzikin Amurka da ƙari kasuwannin daidaito, sun jure da kyau tare da haɓakar riba ta 2017, suna ƙin yarda da imanin da wasu manazarta ke furtawa cewa duk wani babban ci gaba na iya cutar da farfadowar tattalin arzikin Amurka. Alkawarin Trump; don yin ragin haraji mai tsauri, wanda galibi kuma ba zai iya amfanar kamfanoni masu wadata ba, ya fi kowace tasiri game da duk tasirin tasirin riba, tare da wasu kasuwannin daidaito, kamar SPX, suna ba da kusan kashi 20% na shekara-shekara.
Dalar Amurka ba ta taɓa jin daɗin irin wannan haɓaka ba tare da manyan takwarorinta a lokacin 2017, duk da faɗin riba ya karu dala ta faɗi game da ƙeta da Euro a cikin 2017 kuma ta kusa daidaita da yen. GPB / USD ya faɗi zuwa 1.19 a cikin Janairu, amma ya dawo zuwa ƙwanƙolin 2017 na kusan 1.36, a halin yanzu yana ciniki kusan. 1.33. Yayinda ake danganta sake dawowa a cikin fam na Burtaniya ga fashewar tashin hankalin, yawancin manazarta sun yi imanin cewa ƙimar Fed zai haifar da ƙarin darajar dala. Hakanan EUR / USD ya faɗi zuwa kusan 1.04 a farkon 2017, zuwa ƙwanƙwasa a kusan 1.21 a watan Agusta, yayin da ECB ke riƙe babban adadin su a sifili kuma ya ci gaba da APS ɗin su (makircin sayan kadara).
Trumpaddamar da ƙararrawa don tsunduma cikin babban haɓakar tattalin arziƙi, gami da tsarin haɓaka kayan more rayuwa wanda ba a taɓa gani a shekaru da yawa ba, shi ne babban dalilin da masu sharhi da yawa suka gabatar, saboda ƙarancin ƙarfin dalar Amurka. Wani aikin da ya bayyana ya faɗi daga radar Republicans yayin da 2017 ta ƙare.
Ra'ayoyi sun banbanta dangane da tasirin duk wani tashin farashin da zaiyi akan dalar Amurka, idan aka sanar da tashin a yammacin Laraba. Wasu masu sharhi suna da ra'ayin cewa an riga an lissafa tasirin a cikin kasuwannin FX, saboda cewa ta hanyar jagorar ci gaba Fed / FOMC sun riga sun yanke shawarar yanke shawara, sabili da haka duk wata ƙungiya ta dala za ta kasance mai ɗan wadata. Sauran manazarta suna da ra'ayin cewa dala na iya tashi, idan shawarar tashin kudi ta kasance tare da sanarwar manema labarai ta hawkish, wanda ke nuni da kara tsaurara manufofin kudi a cikin 2018, ta hanyar karin riba da kuma kara matsin lamba.
Koyaya, idan an ba da labarin dovish, tare da FOMC suna ba da shawara mai sauƙi, mai sauƙi a cikin 2018; karin kudade da kwance aljihu / divesting na dala tiriliyan 4.5 na sikeli ta hanyar taka tsantsan da taka tsantsan, sannan dala na iya yin shiru. Dole ne kuma a lura cewa ba za a saki cikakken minti na taron ba har sai Janairu.
Kamar koyaushe, za a shawarci 'yan kasuwa da su lura da matsayin dalarsu da fallasa su kafin, lokacin da kuma nan da nan bayan an yanke shawarar FOMC ga jama'a. Duk sababbin dabarun gudanarwa na yau da kullun ya kamata suyi aiki, haɗari da dakatar da daidaitawa musamman.
MABUDAN MALAMAN TATTALIN ARZIKI NA Amurka.
• GDP ya karu 3.3%.
• Hawan hauhawar farashin kashi 2%.
• Kudin sha'awa kashi 1.25%.
• Rashin aikin yi 4.1%.
• Girman albashi 3.2%.
• Bashin Gwamnati v GDP 106%.
• Hadadden PMI 54.5.
• Retail tallace-tallace 4.6%.
« Sterling ya zame yayin da Ministan Burtaniya ya koma baya kan yarjejeniyar Brexit, Amurka ta daidaita ta kafa wani tarihi mafi girma, Dalar Amurka ta hauhawa, yayin da hauhawar kudin ruwa ke shirin bayyana a ranar Laraba Brexit, abubuwan da suka gabata, yanzu da kuma masu zuwa nan gaba akan ƙimar fam na Burtaniya »
