Sabbin alkaluman GDP na tattalin arzikin Amurka na iya taimakawa Fed saita hanya don manufofin kuɗin ta a cikin 2018
Da karfe 13:30 na dare agogon GMT a ranar Laraba 29 ga wata, za a buga sabon kwata-kwata na shekara-shekara na GDP a Amurka. Adadin kwata na ƙarshe ya samar da adadi mai girma na 3%, ra'ayoyin ra'ayi ɗaya, waɗanda aka tattara daga masana tattalin arziƙin da kamfanin dillancin labarai na Reuters ya zaba, ya ba da shawarar tashi zuwa 3.2% don sabon haɓakar QoQ na shekara-shekara.
Tare da masu saka jari a cikin Amurka sun mai da hankali kan shawarwarin haraji na Trump, wanda za a iya zaɓar a wannan Alhamis ɗin a Majalisar Dattawa da FOMC saboda haɗuwa a watan Disamba 12-13th, don tattauna ƙimar sha'awa da manufofin kuɗi, wannan sabon adadi na GDP na iya tattara hankalin mutane na kujerun Fed na yanki waɗanda suka kafa FOMC, yayin da suke yanke shawarar manufar ƙimar riba ta 2018.
Babban ra'ayi shine cewa FOMC zata sanar da hauhawa a cikin babban riba a cikin Amurka zuwa 1.5%, a ƙarshen taron su na Disamba. Koyaya, labari ne na gaba game da rakiyar kowane sanarwa, game da kowane jadawalin tsarin lokaci don ƙimar girma a cikin 2018, wanda masu saka jari da yan kasuwar FX zasu mai da hankali akan.
Idan adadin GDP ya shigo kamar yadda aka yi hasashe a ci gaban 3.2%, to FOMC na iya jin an ba shi ikon ƙaddamar da shirin haɓaka ƙimar a cikin 2018, don haɓaka ƙimar maɓallin kewayawa zuwa kusan 3% a cikin 2018. Idan FOMC ta ɗaga kaso a watan Disamba, to za su ci gaba da jajircewa kan alkawarin da suka yi na 2017 don haɓaka har sau uku a cikin 2017. Yayin da kuɗin da FOMC ke bayarwa manufofin kuɗi ne ba na kasafin kuɗi ba, za su san irin tallafin da Trump ke son yankewa na rage haraji a kasuwannin daidaito, saboda haka ta manufofinsu na kudi zasu iya iya zama shaho kuma su tsaurara kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗe, idan haɓaka tayi ƙarfi kuma an zartar da yanke harajin.
Idan adadin GDP na baya-bayan nan ya shigo kamar yadda aka faɗi, ko kuma ya doke hasashe, to, kuɗin kuɗin na USD na iya fuskantar haɓaka kamar: masu saka hannun jari, 'yan kasuwa da manazarta za a ƙarfafa su a ci gaba da farfadowar da tattalin arzikin Amurka ya yi kuma suna ganin tattalin arzikin yana da ƙarfin isa yanayin ci gaba mai dorewa na tashin ya tashi a cikin 2018. Masu saka jari kuma na iya yanke hukuncin cewa Fed din yana da dakin da zai fara nitsar da kansa game da dala biliyan tiriliyan 4.5 na sikeli, wanda aka samu ta hanyar shirin sayan kadara (QE) tun 2007, a matsayin karamin rikicin kudi ƙirƙirar yaduwa a cikin kasuwannin kuɗi.
A dabi'ance ya kamata hasashen ya rasa hasashen tashin zuwa 3.2%, to mahalarta kasuwa na iya yin la'akari da cewa FOMC dole ne suyi amfani da ƙirar ƙira a cikin 2018, saboda ci gaban tattalin arzikin Amurka ba a gina shi akan tushe mai ƙarfi ba kwanan nan wuya data nuna.
MABUDI MAI BAKA USAID TATTALIN ARZIKI
• GDP ya karu 3%.
• Rashin aikin yi 4.1%.
• Hawan hauhawar farashin kashi 2%.
• Kudin sha'awa kashi 1.25%.
• Bashin Gwamnati ga GDP 106%.
• Hadadden PMI 54.6.
• Ci gaban tallace-tallace na 4.6% YoY.
• Girman albashi 3.2%.
« Zinare ya kai matakinsa mafi girma a cikin makonni biyar, yen ya biyo bayansa azaman kasuwancin tsaro na aminci, tsarin daidaiton Turai, kamar Euro Sterling ya tashi matuka yayin da Burtaniya da EU suka cimma yarjejeniya kan kudin karshe na Brexit, Amurka ta daidaita daidai yayin da sake fasalin haraji ya wuce muhimmiyar matsala a Majalisar Dattawan Amurka »
