BoE ba su da matsala don haɓaka ƙimar kuɗin Burtaniya a ranar Alhamis, shin hakan zai nuna tsaurara manufofin kuɗi, ko kuwa zai zama matakin sanyaya hauhawar farashi?
A ranar Alhamis Nuwamba 2 na Bankin Ingila na Burtaniya, ta hanyar kwamitin manufofinsa na kudi, zai sanar da shawarar da ya yanke game da kudin ruwa mai sauki. A halin yanzu a 0.25%, babban ra'ayi, daga masana tattalin arziƙin da manyan kamfanonin dillancin labarai suka zaɓa Bloomberg da Reuters, ya tashi zuwa kashi 0.5%. Duk da yuwuwar tashin da ke wakiltar ƙaruwar farko a cikin shekaru goma, ƙimar 0.5% kawai za ta dawo da ƙimar tushe zuwa matakin kafin a ɗauki matakan gaggawa, bayan ƙuri'ar raba gardama ta Brexit da sakamako, a cikin Yunin 2016.
Dole ne a lura cewa ba za a gabatar da kowane hauhawa ba saboda tattalin arzikin Burtaniya yana da ƙarfi sosai don fuskantar shirin hauhawar kuɗi, don ƙarshe daidaita ƙimar zuwa wataƙila 3% ko sama da haka, BoE yana damuwa game da hauhawar farashi (CPI) 3% a cikin Oktoba kuma yana buƙatar ɗaukar matakan gaggawa don sanyaya matsin hauhawar farashi. Fam din ya fadi warwas da sauran manyan abokan kasuwancin sa tun daga watan Yunin 2016; a kan euro kudin fam ya fadi kusan 14%, a kan dalar Amurka faduwar ta kusan. 9%. Wannan ya shafi farashin shigo da kayayyaki kuma a cikin irin wannan tattalin arzikin masarufin, sannan kuma ya dogara sosai kan shigo da makamashi wanda ake sawa dala, hauhawar farashin mai shigowa ya karu sosai a Burtaniya yana kara farashin. Yayinda albashi ya kasa tafiya daidai; a kimanin. 2.1% YoY (ba tare da kari ba) karin albashi sun kai kusan. 1% a ƙasa da hauhawar farashi.
Idan BoC's MPC ya sanar da karin girma, to hankalin masu saka hannun jari zai koma kan labari da kwafin da kwamitin manufofin ya gabatar; musamman ko shawarar ba ta kasance ɗaya ba, ko kuma rinjaye. BoE za su gudanar da taron manema labarai nan da nan bayan sanarwar farashin, inda za su gabatar da rahoton hauhawar farashinsu. Yana cikin wannan aikin ne lokacin da yan kasuwar FX, manazarta da masu saka jari, zasu gano idan BoE / MPC suna ganin yuwuwar tashi a matsayin miƙaƙƙiyar hanya don samun ci gaban hauhawar farashin, ko farkon shirin don tsaurara manufofin banki na babban banki . BoE sun kuma nuna damuwa game da bashin mabukaci; ya karu da 9.9% YoY kuma hauhawar farashi zai hana buƙatu.
Mark Carney, BoE Gwamna, ya ba da jagora a gaba a ranar 10 ga Oktoba, yana mai nuni da yuwuwar tashi, Sterling ya tashi tun daga manyan takwarorinsa; GBP / USD ya tashi daga kimanin 1.3040 don keta 1.330. EUR / GPB ya faɗo ta hanyar 200 da 100 DMA, daga madaurin 90.00 zuwa 0.9750. Saboda haka ma'anar cewa tashin ya kusanto, ya riga ya ba da sakamakon da ake so Mista Carney; hauhawar darajar fam na Ingila tare da manyan takwarorinta. Koyaya, mataimakin gwamnan a Bankin Ingila, Sir Jon Cunliffe, kwanan nan ya ba da shawarar cewa zai yi wuri a fara fara amfani da kudin ruwa. Sakamakon ra'ayoyin waɗannan manyan masu tsara manufofi guda biyu, hauhawar GBP da takwarorinta na iya riga an “sanya farashi” kuma idan an ƙara fa'idodin riba, nau'ikan GPB bazai yuwu da yawa ba. Koyaya, yan kasuwa suyi hankali game da yiwuwar samun manyan abubuwa, musamman idan rahoton hauhawar farashin kaya da labarin da ke tafe hawkish ne.
MAGANIN MAGANAR TATTALIN ARZIKI DANGANE DA WANNAN BABBAN SAKAMAKON KALALAR SHARI'A
• Kudin riba na yanzu 0.25%.
• Hauhawar farashi (CPI) 3%.
• GDP girma a kowace shekara 1.5%.
• Girman GBP Q3 0.4%.
• Rashin aikin yi 4.3%.
• Girman albashi 2.2%.
• Bashi mai zaman kansa v GDP 231%.
• Ayyukan PMI 53.6.
• Tallace-tallace na YoY 1.2%.
« Sterling ya karu saboda tattaunawa mai kyau game da tattaunawar Brexit da kuma tsammanin kasuwa na karuwar darajar kudi a ranar Alhamis, Euro yana samun nasara akan yawancin takwarorina, yayin da GDP ke tashi FOMC ta ci gaba da rike farashin, farashin Amurka ya tashi, Trump ya nada Powell a matsayin sabon kujerar Fed, Swiss franc da yen fall, DAX ya kai matuka »
