Stagflation yana Tsoron fitowa daga Matsalolin Tattalin Arziki da ke Faruwa
Kasuwannin hada-hadar kudi sun shiga cikin takun-saka tsakanin ci gaba da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da kuma matsalolin koma bayan tattalin arziki yayin da suke kokarin yin hasashen mataki na gaba na Tarayyar Tarayya. Wannan yana nufin cewa masu zuba jari suna iya yin watsi da sakamako mafi haɗari: stagflation.
Haɗin haɓakar haɓakar tattalin arziƙin a hankali tare da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na iya yuwuwar ruguza fata ga koma bayan kamfen na Fed don hana hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ta hanyar haɓaka ƙimar riba. Wannan zai fallasa yawancin ɓatanci na kasuwa, wanda zai haifar da farashin hannun jari, lamuni da sauran kadarori masu haɗari a wannan shekara.
Wannan shi ne abin da wasu masana tattalin arziki ke kira "stagflation Lite" kuma yana wakiltar yanayin tattalin arziki mai cike da damuwa ga manajojin asusun har yanzu suna lasar raunukan su daga mummunan faduwar hannun jari da farashin haɗin gwiwa a cikin 2022.
Misalai na tarihi na tattalin arziƙin da ya durƙusa a cikin stagflation suna da iyaka, don haka babu kaɗan don jagorantar saka hannun jari a cikin wannan nau'in tattalin arzikin. Ga masu kula da asusu da yawa, kasuwancin da aka fi so sune manyan shaidu, zinare, da hannun jari na kamfanoni waɗanda zasu iya fuskantar koma bayan tattalin arziki.
"Ya kamata a sami wani abu kamar stagflation a wannan shekara - hauhawar farashin farashi da rage jinkirin girma - har sai wani abu ya karya kuma an tilasta Fed ya yanke farashin," in ji Kelly Wood, manajan kudi a Schroders Plc. "Mun yi imanin cewa shaidu za su zama babban ajin kadari a cikin 2023. Mafi girma dawowa na dogon lokaci har sai wani abu ya karye ba yanayi mai ban sha'awa ba ne ga kadarorin masu haɗari da kyakkyawan yanayi don samun riba daga tsayayyen kudin shiga."
GDP
Bloomberg Tattalin Arziki yana ganin hauhawar haɗarin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, yana mai kiransa "stagflation Lite", kuma kimantawar farko da gwamnati ta yi game da ci gaban tattalin arzikin a cikin kwata na farko ya tabbatar da batunsu. Jimlar yawan kayayyakin cikin gida ya karu da kashi 1.1 cikin 27 na shekara-shekara tsakanin Janairu da Maris, Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki ya ruwaito a ranar 2.6 ga Afrilu. Wannan ya kai matsakaicin kiyasin da masana tattalin arziki suka yi a zaben Bloomberg kuma ya nuna raguwar ci gaban kwata na 4.9% na baya. A halin yanzu, ma'aunin hauhawar farashin farashi na Fed, wanda ya keɓance abinci da makamashi, ya tashi zuwa XNUMX% a farkon kwata.
Matsalar hauhawar farashin kaya
Wannan ci gaba da matsin lamba na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yana nufin masu tsara manufofin za su iya sake haɓaka farashin a ranar 3 ga Mayu, duk da cewa matsalolin banki na baya-bayan nan suna ƙarfafa yanayin bashi ta hanyar da ke barazanar ƙara tsananta ƙoƙarin Fed na rage buƙata. Batun tushen tattalin arziki na Bloomberg shine cewa Fed zai ɗauki dogon lokaci bayan hauhawar farashin wannan makon, amma sun yi gargaɗi game da haɗarin haɓakar da babban bankin na iya buƙatar yin ƙari.
Wannan yana nuna haɗarin kuskuren kasuwa a cikin ƙimar riba na ɗan gajeren lokaci, wanda ke ba da shawarar rage kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu zuwa kashi biyu cikin huɗu a ƙarshen wannan shekara.
"Yanayin rikice-rikicen da nake gani a hasashena na karshen wannan shekara, da kuma na 2024, zai zama wani abu kamar sifili zuwa 1% girma, kusa da sifili, kuma har yanzu hauhawar farashin kaya sama da 3%," in ji Anna Wong, shugaba Masanin tattalin arzikin Amurka a Bloomberg Economics.
Ƙunƙarar ƙira
Layin amfanin gona ya kasance yana jujjuya sosai, mai nuna alamar koma bayan tattalin arziki. Ƙididdigar ƙididdiga na shekaru 10 a kusan 3.5% shine kusan maki 61 ƙasa da yawan amfanin kuɗin shekaru 2.
Amma duk da haka layin yana sake zazzagewa, kuma tazarar tana raguwa tun lokacin da aka kai kusan maki 111 a ranar 8 ga Maris - mafi zurfin juye-juye tun farkon shekarun 1980 - yayin da gazawar wasu bankunan yankin ke kara damuwa da koma bayan tattalin arzikin Amurka da hasashen mai na farashi. yanke ta Fed.
Kudaden shinge sun karu da fare a kan ma'auni na Amurka, alamar da ke nuna cewa sun yi imanin cewa kasuwar hannun jari ba ta da daraja bayan da aka fara karfi a shekara. Har ila yau, suna yin fare da yawa a kan baitulmali - kudaden da aka yi amfani da su, tun daga ranar 25 ga Afrilu, sun yi kusan mafi girman fare da aka taɓa samu kan raguwar shekaru 10 na haɗin gwiwa.
Precious karafa
Wasu masu zuba jari suna juya zuwa karafa masu daraja a matsayin mafaka mai aminci. Matthew McLennan, na First Eagle Investments, ya ce game da 15% na kamfanoni na duniya fayil suna a bullion da zinariya ma'adinai a matsayin mai yuwuwar shinge ga hauhawar farashin kaya da kuma rage darajar dala a cikin fargabar wani "fadi tsarin rikici" a kasuwanni.
« Yadda Ake Amfani da Matsakaicin Matsakaicin Matsayi na Gaskiya don Kasuwancin Rana? Alamar MACD - Yaya Yayi Aiki? »
