Satumba 30 • Sharhin kasuwancin • Ra'ayoyin 7307 • 2 Comments akan Ka Mate; Haka Bazai Iya Ceto New Zealand daga Rushewar Kuɗaɗe ba
Yawancin shanu masu alfarma na duniya masu saka jari da bunƙasar kuɗi sun bayyana ana kashe su kwanan nan cewa yana da wahalar kiyayewa. Ostiraliya da alama ba ta daɗe da haskakawa da haskakawa kuma yanzu haɓakar tattalin arzikin New Zealand na cikin tsananin bincika. Kwatankwacin Aussie the Kiwi ya kasance tarin dukiya mai tarin yawa a lokacin tashin hankali tun daga 2008 - 2009. Ba lallai bane saboda kyakkyawan tsarin kuɗi da kuɗi da gwamnatocin dangin su suka saka, amma kuma saboda ƙimar kuɗin su da yake basa aiki. tare da sauran manyan tattalin arzikin da suka ci gaba.
Yanzu an yarda cewa fa'idodin albarkatun ma'adinan Australiya sun kasance an kiyasta fiye da kimantawa, a game da damar aiki da GDP, New Zealand ta dogara da alaƙarta ta 'parasitic' ɗaya da Australiya don 'chug' tare shekarun da suka gabata. Duk wani jinkiri da Ostiraliya ta samu, komai ƙanƙantarsa, zai ƙarfafa matsalar New Zealand.
New Zealand tana da tattalin arziƙin kasuwa wanda ya dogara da kasuwancin duniya, galibi tare da Australia, Tarayyar Turai, Amurka, China, da Japan. Tana da ƙananan masana'antu da ƙananan fannoni, yawon buɗe ido da masana'antu na farko kamar aikin noma shine babban direbobin tattalin arziki.
Matakan samun kudin shiga na New Zealand sun kasance sama da Yammacin Turai kafin mummunan rikicin su na shekarun 1970, kuma ba su taɓa murmurewa ba dangane da yanayin. GDP na New Zealand yana da ƙasa da na Spain kuma kusan 60% na Amurka. Rashin daidaiton kudin shiga ya karu sosai, wanda ke nuna cewa adadi mai yawa na yawan jama'a suna da kudin shiga kadan. New Zealand tana da rarar asusun ajiya mai yawa na kashi 8-9% na GDP a 2006, bashin ta na jama'a ya kai kimanin 21.2% na jimlar GDP, wanda yake kaɗan idan aka kwatanta da ƙasashe da suka ci gaba.
Koyaya, tsakanin shekarar 1984 zuwa 2006 bashin kasashen waje ya karu ninki 11, zuwa NZ $ 182 billion, NZ $ 45,000 ga kowane mutum. Haɗuwa da ƙaramar bashin jama'a da babban bashin ƙasashen waje yana nuna cewa yawancin bashin na ƙasashen waje ana riƙe su ne daga kamfanoni masu zaman kansu. A 31 Disamba 2010, bashin bashin kasashen waje ya kai NZ $ 253 biliyan, ko 132% na GDP. A 31 Maris 2011, bashin bashin ƙasa ya kai dala biliyan 148.2.
Ci gaba da ragin asusun New Zealand na da manyan dalilai guda biyu. Na farko shi ne, kudaden da aka samu daga fitar da kayan gona da yawon bude ido sun kasa biyan shigo da kayayyakin da aka kera na zamani da sauran shigo da kayayyaki (kamar makamashin da aka shigo da su) da ake bukata don ciyar da tattalin arzikin New Zealand. Abu na biyu, an sami rashin daidaiton shigar saka hannun jari ko fitowar kuɗi don biyan bashi na rancen waje. Adadin gibin asusun na yanzu wanda yake da nasaba da rashin daidaiton kudin shigar hannun jari (fitowar ta hanyar banki mallakar Australiya) ya karu daga kashi ɗaya bisa uku a 1997 zuwa kusan 70% a 2008.
New Zealand yanzu ta rasa maki mafi daraja a darajar Standard & Poor's da Fitch Ratings, kasa ta farko a Asiya da Fasifik cikin shekaru goma da aka yanke bashin ta na cikin gida daga AAA. Samun jarin gwamnati ya tashi sosai a wannan shekarar. Hangen nesa ya daidaita bayan an rage darajar kudi na gida na dogon lokaci zuwa matakin AA + kuma an yanke bashin kudin waje zuwa AA daga AA +, S&P ya fada a cikin wata sanarwa. Dala ta New Zealand ta fadada faduwarta kwata-kwata tun shekara ta 2008 bayan Fitch ta sanar da irin wannan motsin jiya.
Dalar ta New Zealand ta fadi kasa a rana ta uku, inda ta sauka zuwa anin Amurka 76.72 daga 6:03 na yamma a Wellington daga 77.10 a jiya a New York. Darajar kudin ta raunana kashi 7.5 cikin dari tun daga watan Yuni. Rage darajar "ya biyo bayan bincikenmu ne kan yiwuwar cewa matsayin waje na New Zealand zai kara tabarbarewa a daidai lokacin da tsarin kasafin kudin kasar ya yi rauni sakamakon matsin lamba da ke da nasaba da girgizar kasa da kuma kara kuzari don tallafawa ci gaban," in ji S&P a cikin sanarwar. Tattalin arzikin New Zealand ya bunkasa da kashi 0.1 a cikin watanni uku zuwa Yuni daga kwatancen da ya gabata, kasa da ci gaban tattalin arzikin da aka yi hasashe da kashi 0.5. Rashin aikin yi ya kasance sama da kashi 6 cikin ɗari tun kwata na biyu na 2009, idan aka kwatanta da kashi 4.8 cikin ɗari a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata. Lokaci ne kawai kafin Moody ya sanya mummunan ra'ayi ga New Zealand a cikin ƙimar ta.
Bashin bashin waje na New Zealand na kashi 83 cikin 10 na yawan kuɗin cikin gida a cikin dala ta Amurka a ƙarshen shekarar bara idan aka kwatanta shi da matsakaicin kashi 4.9 na ƙasashe masu darajar AA, in ji Fitch. Ididdigar asusun na yanzu, mafi girman ma'auni na kasuwanci saboda ya haɗa da ayyuka da kuɗin shiga na saka hannun jari, mai yiwuwa ya faɗaɗa zuwa kashi 2012 na GDP a 5.5 kuma zuwa XNUMX bisa ɗari shekara mai zuwa.
Idan kun kasance ɗaya daga cikin daraktocin Fitch da Standard da Poor's kuna da wuya a karɓe ku hannu biyu-biyu da zarar kofin duniya na rugby ya isa matakin ƙarshe. Idan masu gaisuwa suka ce Ka Mate ba maraba bane ..
Kasuwannin Asiya sun sha wahala a cikin dare da safiya, Nikkei ya kusan canzawa a kusa da 0.01% sama, CSI ya rufe 0.26% kuma Hang Seng ya rufe 2.32% kasancewar yanzu ya rasa kusan 22% shekara a shekara. Kasuwannin Turai sun yi ƙasa da kasuwancin safiya, kyakkyawan fata na Jamus a ƙarshe ya tabbatar da ƙarin 'doling' ƙarin kuɗi zuwa Girka (waɗanda har yanzu suna kan matakin DEFCON 2 dangane da yiwuwar ƙila za a biya) ya zama an maye gurbinsu da gaskiya. Yayinda troika ke haduwa don kara fahimtar ra'ayoyi game da maganganu kamar su "tsoran tsari" sanya matsayin bugawa kawai yana jan hankali. A wane lokaci ne masu kasuwa da masu motsi za su farka gaskiyar cewa babu wata mafita, ko yunƙurin sasanta gajere zuwa matsakaici, da gaske aka sanya?
Burtaniya FTSE a halin yanzu ta sauka da 1.27%, STOXX ya yi kasa da 1.49%, CAC ta yi kasa da 1.37% kuma DAX ta yi kasa da 2.35%. Matsayin daidaiton SPX ya ragu kusan 0.7%. Yuro ya faɗi ƙasa sosai da yawancin manyan kuɗaɗe musamman dala. Sterling ya bi wannan tsarin banda CHF idan ya kasance ya yi taro.
Littattafan bayanan don yin hankali a buɗe NY (ko daga baya) sun haɗa da masu zuwa:
13:30 US - Kudin shiga na Agusta
13:30 US - Kashe Kuɗi Na Agusta
13:30 US - Kwamitin PCE Agusta
14:45 US - Chicago PMI Satumba
14:55 US - Jumlar Jumhuriyar Michigan Sep
Wataƙila mafi shahara shine ma'anar tunanin masu amfani da Michigan, masana tattalin arziƙi 61 da Bloomberg ta bincika sun ba da tsinkayen matsakaici na 57.8, idan aka kwatanta da sakin da ya gabata wanda shi ma 57.8. Idan ya fadi sosai zai iya shafar ra'ayin kasuwa. Hakanan adadin kudaden shiga na mutum na iya bayyana kuma yana da mahimmanci fiye da adadin kudaden shiga kamar yadda masu saka jari zasu iya samun ra'ayin ra'ayin kasuwa da alkiblar tattalin arziki kamar yadda kashi biyu bisa uku gami da tattalin arzikin Amurka ya dogara ne da kashe kayan masarufi. Masana tattalin arziki da Bloomberg ya tambaya sun yi hasashen 0.20% idan aka kwatanta da adadi na baya na 0.80%.
tsoratar da sharhin kasuwakiwisabuwar tattalin arzikin kasar
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Ka Mate; Haka Bazai Iya Ceto New Zealand daga Rushewar Kuɗaɗe ba
Satumba 30 • Sharhin kasuwancin • Ra'ayoyin 7307 • 2 Comments akan Ka Mate; Haka Bazai Iya Ceto New Zealand daga Rushewar Kuɗaɗe ba
Yawancin shanu masu alfarma na duniya masu saka jari da bunƙasar kuɗi sun bayyana ana kashe su kwanan nan cewa yana da wahalar kiyayewa. Ostiraliya da alama ba ta daɗe da haskakawa da haskakawa kuma yanzu haɓakar tattalin arzikin New Zealand na cikin tsananin bincika. Kwatankwacin Aussie the Kiwi ya kasance tarin dukiya mai tarin yawa a lokacin tashin hankali tun daga 2008 - 2009. Ba lallai bane saboda kyakkyawan tsarin kuɗi da kuɗi da gwamnatocin dangin su suka saka, amma kuma saboda ƙimar kuɗin su da yake basa aiki. tare da sauran manyan tattalin arzikin da suka ci gaba.
Yanzu an yarda cewa fa'idodin albarkatun ma'adinan Australiya sun kasance an kiyasta fiye da kimantawa, a game da damar aiki da GDP, New Zealand ta dogara da alaƙarta ta 'parasitic' ɗaya da Australiya don 'chug' tare shekarun da suka gabata. Duk wani jinkiri da Ostiraliya ta samu, komai ƙanƙantarsa, zai ƙarfafa matsalar New Zealand.
New Zealand tana da tattalin arziƙin kasuwa wanda ya dogara da kasuwancin duniya, galibi tare da Australia, Tarayyar Turai, Amurka, China, da Japan. Tana da ƙananan masana'antu da ƙananan fannoni, yawon buɗe ido da masana'antu na farko kamar aikin noma shine babban direbobin tattalin arziki.
Matakan samun kudin shiga na New Zealand sun kasance sama da Yammacin Turai kafin mummunan rikicin su na shekarun 1970, kuma ba su taɓa murmurewa ba dangane da yanayin. GDP na New Zealand yana da ƙasa da na Spain kuma kusan 60% na Amurka. Rashin daidaiton kudin shiga ya karu sosai, wanda ke nuna cewa adadi mai yawa na yawan jama'a suna da kudin shiga kadan. New Zealand tana da rarar asusun ajiya mai yawa na kashi 8-9% na GDP a 2006, bashin ta na jama'a ya kai kimanin 21.2% na jimlar GDP, wanda yake kaɗan idan aka kwatanta da ƙasashe da suka ci gaba.
Koyaya, tsakanin shekarar 1984 zuwa 2006 bashin kasashen waje ya karu ninki 11, zuwa NZ $ 182 billion, NZ $ 45,000 ga kowane mutum. Haɗuwa da ƙaramar bashin jama'a da babban bashin ƙasashen waje yana nuna cewa yawancin bashin na ƙasashen waje ana riƙe su ne daga kamfanoni masu zaman kansu. A 31 Disamba 2010, bashin bashin kasashen waje ya kai NZ $ 253 biliyan, ko 132% na GDP. A 31 Maris 2011, bashin bashin ƙasa ya kai dala biliyan 148.2.
Ci gaba da ragin asusun New Zealand na da manyan dalilai guda biyu. Na farko shi ne, kudaden da aka samu daga fitar da kayan gona da yawon bude ido sun kasa biyan shigo da kayayyakin da aka kera na zamani da sauran shigo da kayayyaki (kamar makamashin da aka shigo da su) da ake bukata don ciyar da tattalin arzikin New Zealand. Abu na biyu, an sami rashin daidaiton shigar saka hannun jari ko fitowar kuɗi don biyan bashi na rancen waje. Adadin gibin asusun na yanzu wanda yake da nasaba da rashin daidaiton kudin shigar hannun jari (fitowar ta hanyar banki mallakar Australiya) ya karu daga kashi ɗaya bisa uku a 1997 zuwa kusan 70% a 2008.
New Zealand yanzu ta rasa maki mafi daraja a darajar Standard & Poor's da Fitch Ratings, kasa ta farko a Asiya da Fasifik cikin shekaru goma da aka yanke bashin ta na cikin gida daga AAA. Samun jarin gwamnati ya tashi sosai a wannan shekarar. Hangen nesa ya daidaita bayan an rage darajar kudi na gida na dogon lokaci zuwa matakin AA + kuma an yanke bashin kudin waje zuwa AA daga AA +, S&P ya fada a cikin wata sanarwa. Dala ta New Zealand ta fadada faduwarta kwata-kwata tun shekara ta 2008 bayan Fitch ta sanar da irin wannan motsin jiya.
Dalar ta New Zealand ta fadi kasa a rana ta uku, inda ta sauka zuwa anin Amurka 76.72 daga 6:03 na yamma a Wellington daga 77.10 a jiya a New York. Darajar kudin ta raunana kashi 7.5 cikin dari tun daga watan Yuni. Rage darajar "ya biyo bayan bincikenmu ne kan yiwuwar cewa matsayin waje na New Zealand zai kara tabarbarewa a daidai lokacin da tsarin kasafin kudin kasar ya yi rauni sakamakon matsin lamba da ke da nasaba da girgizar kasa da kuma kara kuzari don tallafawa ci gaban," in ji S&P a cikin sanarwar. Tattalin arzikin New Zealand ya bunkasa da kashi 0.1 a cikin watanni uku zuwa Yuni daga kwatancen da ya gabata, kasa da ci gaban tattalin arzikin da aka yi hasashe da kashi 0.5. Rashin aikin yi ya kasance sama da kashi 6 cikin ɗari tun kwata na biyu na 2009, idan aka kwatanta da kashi 4.8 cikin ɗari a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata. Lokaci ne kawai kafin Moody ya sanya mummunan ra'ayi ga New Zealand a cikin ƙimar ta.
Bashin bashin waje na New Zealand na kashi 83 cikin 10 na yawan kuɗin cikin gida a cikin dala ta Amurka a ƙarshen shekarar bara idan aka kwatanta shi da matsakaicin kashi 4.9 na ƙasashe masu darajar AA, in ji Fitch. Ididdigar asusun na yanzu, mafi girman ma'auni na kasuwanci saboda ya haɗa da ayyuka da kuɗin shiga na saka hannun jari, mai yiwuwa ya faɗaɗa zuwa kashi 2012 na GDP a 5.5 kuma zuwa XNUMX bisa ɗari shekara mai zuwa.
Idan kun kasance ɗaya daga cikin daraktocin Fitch da Standard da Poor's kuna da wuya a karɓe ku hannu biyu-biyu da zarar kofin duniya na rugby ya isa matakin ƙarshe. Idan masu gaisuwa suka ce Ka Mate ba maraba bane ..
Kasuwannin Asiya sun sha wahala a cikin dare da safiya, Nikkei ya kusan canzawa a kusa da 0.01% sama, CSI ya rufe 0.26% kuma Hang Seng ya rufe 2.32% kasancewar yanzu ya rasa kusan 22% shekara a shekara. Kasuwannin Turai sun yi ƙasa da kasuwancin safiya, kyakkyawan fata na Jamus a ƙarshe ya tabbatar da ƙarin 'doling' ƙarin kuɗi zuwa Girka (waɗanda har yanzu suna kan matakin DEFCON 2 dangane da yiwuwar ƙila za a biya) ya zama an maye gurbinsu da gaskiya. Yayinda troika ke haduwa don kara fahimtar ra'ayoyi game da maganganu kamar su "tsoran tsari" sanya matsayin bugawa kawai yana jan hankali. A wane lokaci ne masu kasuwa da masu motsi za su farka gaskiyar cewa babu wata mafita, ko yunƙurin sasanta gajere zuwa matsakaici, da gaske aka sanya?
Burtaniya FTSE a halin yanzu ta sauka da 1.27%, STOXX ya yi kasa da 1.49%, CAC ta yi kasa da 1.37% kuma DAX ta yi kasa da 2.35%. Matsayin daidaiton SPX ya ragu kusan 0.7%. Yuro ya faɗi ƙasa sosai da yawancin manyan kuɗaɗe musamman dala. Sterling ya bi wannan tsarin banda CHF idan ya kasance ya yi taro.
Littattafan bayanan don yin hankali a buɗe NY (ko daga baya) sun haɗa da masu zuwa:
13:30 US - Kudin shiga na Agusta
13:30 US - Kashe Kuɗi Na Agusta
13:30 US - Kwamitin PCE Agusta
14:45 US - Chicago PMI Satumba
14:55 US - Jumlar Jumhuriyar Michigan Sep
Wataƙila mafi shahara shine ma'anar tunanin masu amfani da Michigan, masana tattalin arziƙi 61 da Bloomberg ta bincika sun ba da tsinkayen matsakaici na 57.8, idan aka kwatanta da sakin da ya gabata wanda shi ma 57.8. Idan ya fadi sosai zai iya shafar ra'ayin kasuwa. Hakanan adadin kudaden shiga na mutum na iya bayyana kuma yana da mahimmanci fiye da adadin kudaden shiga kamar yadda masu saka jari zasu iya samun ra'ayin ra'ayin kasuwa da alkiblar tattalin arziki kamar yadda kashi biyu bisa uku gami da tattalin arzikin Amurka ya dogara ne da kashe kayan masarufi. Masana tattalin arziki da Bloomberg ya tambaya sun yi hasashen 0.20% idan aka kwatanta da adadi na baya na 0.80%.
tsoratar da sharhin kasuwakiwisabuwar tattalin arzikin kasar
« Yaƙin Bullim na Spain ya ƙare Amma Yakin da ke Cikin Mutane Yana Rayuwa Tsuntsaye masu tsawa sun tafi! Ceto na Kasa da Kasa (IMF) sun kasance Na Farko da Shirye don Kaddamarwa »