Nuwamba 16 • Sharhin kasuwancin • Ra'ayoyin 5558 • Comments Off akan Just sama Zero shine Sabon Al'ada
Halin da ake ciki yanzu a cikin masharhanta masannin kasuwa, lokacin da yake yin tsokaci akan bayanan da wasu hukumomin gwamnati suka samar ko kuma masu wallafa wallafe-wallafe, shine yin nazarin ƙananan motsi kowane motsi da kuma samar da tattaunawar akan kowane ƙaramin bambanci. Ganin cewa a baya motsi na kusan 0.5% za a ɗauke shi a matsayin 'amo' ba shi da amfani idan aka ba shi zai iya zama taɓarɓarewar lissafi ko kuskure, yanzu ya zama mai nuna “rayuwa ko mutuwar tattalin arziki”. Kafin faduwar tattalin arzikin 2008-2009 manazarta da masana tattalin arziki zasu nemi adadi na 1% a kowane wata a matsayin shaidar ci gaba a mafi yawan fitowar kalandar tattalin arziki mai mahimmanci. Yanzu haɓakar 0.1% 'an bincika sosai' kuma an matse shi don duk ƙimar sa a cikin manyan kafofin watsa labarai azaman shaidar ci gaba.
Yawancin masu sharhi, masana tattalin arziki da masu sharhi suna da laifin rashin rayuwa ta zahiri idan bayanan bayanai sun damu, sun kasa ganin 'itacen itacen'. Waɗannan ƙananan ƙungiyoyin sune kawai tabbaci na rashin ƙarfi ko ci gaba a mafi kyau. Duk da damuwar da ake yi game da bashin tattalin arzikin da aka ci gaba, yawancin al'ummomi a Turai da Asiya / Pacific da Amurka a matsayin ƙungiya ɗaya suna ta cin karo da juna. Juyawa akai-akai ga ma'anar ya zama alama ce ta maimaitawa, wannan ma'anar adadi yana kusa da sifili kuma duk da haka ana ci gaba da ƙarfafawa a kan matakan haɓaka na ci gaba. Yayinda wani sashi na labarai zai bace idan kafafen yada labarai gaba daya suka bayyana; “Alkaluma daga yau, suna kama da yadda aka saba gani yanzu sama da ci gaban sifili, ho hum” binciken gaskiya zaiyi maraba da shakatawa mai tashi.
Don haka bari mu duba wasu manyan lambobi, mu ɓuya a ƙarƙashin tebur, ku gaya mani lokacin da zai yi kyau a fito da manyan lambobi ..
Dubi Amurka a keɓance kalmar da ake amfani da ita sau ɗaya ita ce cewa a cikin kowane dala goma na haɓaka sun ƙara dala takwas na bashi. Kashi tamanin na ci gaban da aka samu tun daga shekarar 2009 an 'sayi' ta hanyar ƙaruwar bashi ta hanyar kasuwannin jarin, ba da tallafi, sauƙaƙa ƙididdiga da yawa ko kuma haɓaka rufin bashi. A takaice dai babu ci gaban kwayoyin halitta, a mafi yawan lokuta ya kasance haɓakar roba. Yayin da muke tattaunawa kan bayanan data keɓaɓɓe yana da daraja duban kallo (ko dogon kallo idan kuna jin jarumi) a gaskiya ɗaya kawai; nawa, tun lokacin da 2008-2009 tayi rauni, Amurka ta kara bashi. Amurka ta haɓaka rufin bashi kusan $ 500 bl a shekara tun 2003 kuma da 40% tun 2008-2009. Increasearin da aka samu a ranar 8 ga Satumba ya kasance na uku a cikin rufin bashin a cikin watanni 19, ƙaruwa na biyar tun lokacin da Shugaba Obama ya hau mulki, kuma ƙaruwa ta goma sha biyu cikin shekaru 10. Koyaya, ga lambar firgita da gaske wacce zata tura waɗanda suka ɗora daga ƙasan teburin a baya, sun ƙone ta wannan matsakaicin adadin na shekara cikin watanni biyu da suka gabata ..
Bashin Jama'a na Amurka
Bashin jama'a ya karu da sama da dala biliyan 500 a kowace shekara tun daga shekarar kasafin kudi (FY) 2003, tare da karin dala tiriliyan 1 a FY2008, dala tiriliyan 1.9 a FY2009, da dala tiriliyan 1.7 a FY2010. Ya zuwa ranar 22 ga Oktoba, 2011, babban bashin ya kai dala tiriliyan 14.94, wanda $ tiriliyan 10.20 ya kasance na jama'a kuma $ tiriliyan 4.74 ya kasance mallakar gwamnatoci. Adadin kayan cikin gida (GDP) na shekara-shekara har zuwa ƙarshen Yunin 2011 ya kai dala tiriliyan 15.003 (ƙididdigar 29 ga Yulin, 2011), tare da jimillar bashin jama'a wanda ya yi daidai da kashi 99.6% na GDP, kuma bashin da jama'a ke bin shi a kan 68% na GDP .
GDP shine ma'auni na yawan girma da fitowar tattalin arziƙi. Measureaya daga cikin ma'aunin nauyin bashi shine girmanta dangane da GDP. A cikin shekarar kasafin kudi ta 2007, bashin tarayyar Amurka da jama'a suka rike ya kai kimanin dala tiriliyan 5 (kashi 36.8 na GDP) kuma jimlar bashin ya kai dala tiriliyan 9 (kashi 65.5 na GDP). Bashin da jama'a ke binsa yana wakiltar kudaden da ake bin wadanda ke rike da tsare-tsaren gwamnati kamar takardar kudi ta Baitul mali da kuma lamuni.
Dangane da kasafin kudin Amurka na 2010, yawan bashin kasa zai kusan ninki biyu a cikin dala tsakanin 2008 da 2015 kuma zai karu zuwa kusan 100% na GDP, a kan matakin kusan 80% a farkon 2009. Majiyoyin gwamnati da yawa ciki har da na yanzu da na shugabannin baya. , GAO, Ma'aikatar Baitul Malin, da kuma CBO sun ce Amurka tana kan hanyar kasafin kudi wacce ba za ta ci gaba ba. Koyaya, gabanin tsinkaya, jimlar bashin ƙasa ya kai 100% zuwa kashi na uku na 2011.
Ko ta yaya, komawa baya zuwa adadi mafi ƙarancin adadi, ƙididdigar ci gaban Eurozone a cikin kwata na ƙarshe sun kasance masu takaici kamar yadda suke tsaye. Tattalin arzikin yankin Yuro ya bunkasa da kashi 0.2 cikin ɗari a zango na uku yayin da ci gaba mai ƙarfi a cikin Jamus da Faransa ya ƙasƙantar da ƙasashe a ƙarshen ƙarshen bashin kuma masana tattalin arziki suna sa ran faɗawa cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki a farkon shekara mai zuwa. Girman daga Yuli zuwa Satumba ya kasance daidai da na kwata na biyu, amma hangen nesa na watanni uku na ƙarshe na 2011 ya dushe, tare da zurfafa rikicin bashin da ke auna jin daɗi da amincewar mabukaci.
Hukumar Tarayyar Turai tana sa ran tattalin arzikin kasashe 17 masu amfani da kudin Euro ya ragu da kashi 0.1 a cikin watanni ukun karshe na shekara a kan zango na uku sannan ya tsaya cik a zangon farko na shekarar 2012. Masana tattalin arziki sun ce koma bayan tattalin arziki - kashi biyu bisa hudu na raguwar fitarwa - ya kasance mai yiwuwa a yanzu, kodayake tsayinsa da zurfinsa ya dogara da martanin manufofi game da rikicin bashin ƙasa.
Spain, yankin Yuro mai tattalin arziki na huɗu, ya tsaya cik a cikin kwata na uku. Ganin cewa matsalar bashin na shirin dakatar da ayyukan ci gaba kuma masu yuwuwar cin nasarar babban zaben na ranar Lahadi sun yi alkawarin tsaurara matakan kasafin kudi, ba za a cire koma bayan tattalin arziki ba. Maƙwabcin Portugal, wanda aka karɓi tallafi daga EU / IMF, ya riga ya shiga cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki kuma raguwarsa ta ƙaru a cikin kwata na uku. Tattalin arzikinta ya ragu da kashi 0.4 bisa ɗari a cikin watanni ukun.
Market Overview
Hakkin mallakar Turai da kuma lamunin gwamnatin Italia sun ci gaba a zaman na safe, kudin Tarayyar Turai ya tafka asara yayin da Firayim Ministan Italiyan da aka zaba Mario Monti a ƙarshe ya shirya don kafa sabuwar Majalisar Minista.
Fihirisar ta Stoxx ta Turai 600 ta tashi da kashi 0.6 daga 9:00 na safe a London. Matsayi na 500 na Standard & Poor na Index bai ɗan canza ba, yana fuskantar raguwar kashi 1.2. Yuro ya raunana kashi 0.1 zuwa $ 1.3529 bayan da ya faɗi da wuri da kashi 0.8. Adadin da aka samu a kan bashin gwamnatin Italiya na shekaru 10 ya fadi da maki 14 zuwa kashi 6.93. Fihirisar S&P 500 ta sami kashi 0.5 cikin ɗari a jiya. Rahoton tattalin arziki a yau na iya nuna cewa masana'antun Amurka sun haura da kashi 0.4 a cikin Oktoba, ninki biyu na abin da ya gabata a watan da ya gabata.
Hoton Kasuwa da karfe 10:15 na safe agogon GMT (UK)
Kasashen Asiya / Pasifik sun fadi kasa warwas cikin kasuwancin sanyin safiya, Nikkei ya rufe 0.92%, Hang Seng ya rufe 2.0% da CSI ƙasa da 2.72%. ASX 200 ya rufe 0.89% ƙasa da 9.74% shekara a shekara. A cikin Turai yawancin manyan alamun ƙwayoyin cuta suna cikin kyakkyawan yanki. STOXX ya tashi sama da 1.05%, UK FTSE ya tashi da 0.26%, CAC ya tashi 0.75% sannan DAX ya tashi 0.70%. MIB yana jagorantar cajin zuwa 1.88% kuma lambar musayar Athens ita ce kawai laggard ta sauka 1.66%. Farashin danyen mai samfurin Brent ya yi daidai da dala shida ganga kuma gwal ya yi ƙasa da dala biyar.
Bayanin tattalin arziki wanda zai iya shafar jin ra'ayi a zaman la'asar
12:00 US - Aikace-aikacen MBA na MBA 11 Nuwamba
13:30 US - CPI Oktoba
14: 00 US - TIC Ya gudana Satumba
14:15 US - Kirkirar Masana'antu Oktoba
14: 15 US - Amfani da Octoberarfin amfani Oktoba
15: 00 US - NAHB Kasuwancin Gidaje Nuwamba
Tabbatar da cewa mafi shahararren taron labarai na tattalin arziki shine Amurka samar da masana'antun masana'antu. Lissafi daga binciken Bloomberg na manazarta sun yi hasashen adadi na 0.4% na wannan watan idan aka kwatanta da adadi na baya na 0.2%.
ci gaban tattalin arzikirikicin bashin Turai
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Kawai A saman Zero Sabuwar Al'ada ce
Nuwamba 16 • Sharhin kasuwancin • Ra'ayoyin 5558 • Comments Off akan Just sama Zero shine Sabon Al'ada
Halin da ake ciki yanzu a cikin masharhanta masannin kasuwa, lokacin da yake yin tsokaci akan bayanan da wasu hukumomin gwamnati suka samar ko kuma masu wallafa wallafe-wallafe, shine yin nazarin ƙananan motsi kowane motsi da kuma samar da tattaunawar akan kowane ƙaramin bambanci. Ganin cewa a baya motsi na kusan 0.5% za a ɗauke shi a matsayin 'amo' ba shi da amfani idan aka ba shi zai iya zama taɓarɓarewar lissafi ko kuskure, yanzu ya zama mai nuna “rayuwa ko mutuwar tattalin arziki”. Kafin faduwar tattalin arzikin 2008-2009 manazarta da masana tattalin arziki zasu nemi adadi na 1% a kowane wata a matsayin shaidar ci gaba a mafi yawan fitowar kalandar tattalin arziki mai mahimmanci. Yanzu haɓakar 0.1% 'an bincika sosai' kuma an matse shi don duk ƙimar sa a cikin manyan kafofin watsa labarai azaman shaidar ci gaba.
Yawancin masu sharhi, masana tattalin arziki da masu sharhi suna da laifin rashin rayuwa ta zahiri idan bayanan bayanai sun damu, sun kasa ganin 'itacen itacen'. Waɗannan ƙananan ƙungiyoyin sune kawai tabbaci na rashin ƙarfi ko ci gaba a mafi kyau. Duk da damuwar da ake yi game da bashin tattalin arzikin da aka ci gaba, yawancin al'ummomi a Turai da Asiya / Pacific da Amurka a matsayin ƙungiya ɗaya suna ta cin karo da juna. Juyawa akai-akai ga ma'anar ya zama alama ce ta maimaitawa, wannan ma'anar adadi yana kusa da sifili kuma duk da haka ana ci gaba da ƙarfafawa a kan matakan haɓaka na ci gaba. Yayinda wani sashi na labarai zai bace idan kafafen yada labarai gaba daya suka bayyana; “Alkaluma daga yau, suna kama da yadda aka saba gani yanzu sama da ci gaban sifili, ho hum” binciken gaskiya zaiyi maraba da shakatawa mai tashi.
Don haka bari mu duba wasu manyan lambobi, mu ɓuya a ƙarƙashin tebur, ku gaya mani lokacin da zai yi kyau a fito da manyan lambobi ..
Dubi Amurka a keɓance kalmar da ake amfani da ita sau ɗaya ita ce cewa a cikin kowane dala goma na haɓaka sun ƙara dala takwas na bashi. Kashi tamanin na ci gaban da aka samu tun daga shekarar 2009 an 'sayi' ta hanyar ƙaruwar bashi ta hanyar kasuwannin jarin, ba da tallafi, sauƙaƙa ƙididdiga da yawa ko kuma haɓaka rufin bashi. A takaice dai babu ci gaban kwayoyin halitta, a mafi yawan lokuta ya kasance haɓakar roba. Yayin da muke tattaunawa kan bayanan data keɓaɓɓe yana da daraja duban kallo (ko dogon kallo idan kuna jin jarumi) a gaskiya ɗaya kawai; nawa, tun lokacin da 2008-2009 tayi rauni, Amurka ta kara bashi. Amurka ta haɓaka rufin bashi kusan $ 500 bl a shekara tun 2003 kuma da 40% tun 2008-2009. Increasearin da aka samu a ranar 8 ga Satumba ya kasance na uku a cikin rufin bashin a cikin watanni 19, ƙaruwa na biyar tun lokacin da Shugaba Obama ya hau mulki, kuma ƙaruwa ta goma sha biyu cikin shekaru 10. Koyaya, ga lambar firgita da gaske wacce zata tura waɗanda suka ɗora daga ƙasan teburin a baya, sun ƙone ta wannan matsakaicin adadin na shekara cikin watanni biyu da suka gabata ..
Bashin Jama'a na Amurka
Bashin jama'a ya karu da sama da dala biliyan 500 a kowace shekara tun daga shekarar kasafin kudi (FY) 2003, tare da karin dala tiriliyan 1 a FY2008, dala tiriliyan 1.9 a FY2009, da dala tiriliyan 1.7 a FY2010. Ya zuwa ranar 22 ga Oktoba, 2011, babban bashin ya kai dala tiriliyan 14.94, wanda $ tiriliyan 10.20 ya kasance na jama'a kuma $ tiriliyan 4.74 ya kasance mallakar gwamnatoci. Adadin kayan cikin gida (GDP) na shekara-shekara har zuwa ƙarshen Yunin 2011 ya kai dala tiriliyan 15.003 (ƙididdigar 29 ga Yulin, 2011), tare da jimillar bashin jama'a wanda ya yi daidai da kashi 99.6% na GDP, kuma bashin da jama'a ke bin shi a kan 68% na GDP .
GDP shine ma'auni na yawan girma da fitowar tattalin arziƙi. Measureaya daga cikin ma'aunin nauyin bashi shine girmanta dangane da GDP. A cikin shekarar kasafin kudi ta 2007, bashin tarayyar Amurka da jama'a suka rike ya kai kimanin dala tiriliyan 5 (kashi 36.8 na GDP) kuma jimlar bashin ya kai dala tiriliyan 9 (kashi 65.5 na GDP). Bashin da jama'a ke binsa yana wakiltar kudaden da ake bin wadanda ke rike da tsare-tsaren gwamnati kamar takardar kudi ta Baitul mali da kuma lamuni.
Dangane da kasafin kudin Amurka na 2010, yawan bashin kasa zai kusan ninki biyu a cikin dala tsakanin 2008 da 2015 kuma zai karu zuwa kusan 100% na GDP, a kan matakin kusan 80% a farkon 2009. Majiyoyin gwamnati da yawa ciki har da na yanzu da na shugabannin baya. , GAO, Ma'aikatar Baitul Malin, da kuma CBO sun ce Amurka tana kan hanyar kasafin kudi wacce ba za ta ci gaba ba. Koyaya, gabanin tsinkaya, jimlar bashin ƙasa ya kai 100% zuwa kashi na uku na 2011.
Ko ta yaya, komawa baya zuwa adadi mafi ƙarancin adadi, ƙididdigar ci gaban Eurozone a cikin kwata na ƙarshe sun kasance masu takaici kamar yadda suke tsaye. Tattalin arzikin yankin Yuro ya bunkasa da kashi 0.2 cikin ɗari a zango na uku yayin da ci gaba mai ƙarfi a cikin Jamus da Faransa ya ƙasƙantar da ƙasashe a ƙarshen ƙarshen bashin kuma masana tattalin arziki suna sa ran faɗawa cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki a farkon shekara mai zuwa. Girman daga Yuli zuwa Satumba ya kasance daidai da na kwata na biyu, amma hangen nesa na watanni uku na ƙarshe na 2011 ya dushe, tare da zurfafa rikicin bashin da ke auna jin daɗi da amincewar mabukaci.
Hukumar Tarayyar Turai tana sa ran tattalin arzikin kasashe 17 masu amfani da kudin Euro ya ragu da kashi 0.1 a cikin watanni ukun karshe na shekara a kan zango na uku sannan ya tsaya cik a zangon farko na shekarar 2012. Masana tattalin arziki sun ce koma bayan tattalin arziki - kashi biyu bisa hudu na raguwar fitarwa - ya kasance mai yiwuwa a yanzu, kodayake tsayinsa da zurfinsa ya dogara da martanin manufofi game da rikicin bashin ƙasa.
Spain, yankin Yuro mai tattalin arziki na huɗu, ya tsaya cik a cikin kwata na uku. Ganin cewa matsalar bashin na shirin dakatar da ayyukan ci gaba kuma masu yuwuwar cin nasarar babban zaben na ranar Lahadi sun yi alkawarin tsaurara matakan kasafin kudi, ba za a cire koma bayan tattalin arziki ba. Maƙwabcin Portugal, wanda aka karɓi tallafi daga EU / IMF, ya riga ya shiga cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki kuma raguwarsa ta ƙaru a cikin kwata na uku. Tattalin arzikinta ya ragu da kashi 0.4 bisa ɗari a cikin watanni ukun.
Market Overview
Hakkin mallakar Turai da kuma lamunin gwamnatin Italia sun ci gaba a zaman na safe, kudin Tarayyar Turai ya tafka asara yayin da Firayim Ministan Italiyan da aka zaba Mario Monti a ƙarshe ya shirya don kafa sabuwar Majalisar Minista.
Fihirisar ta Stoxx ta Turai 600 ta tashi da kashi 0.6 daga 9:00 na safe a London. Matsayi na 500 na Standard & Poor na Index bai ɗan canza ba, yana fuskantar raguwar kashi 1.2. Yuro ya raunana kashi 0.1 zuwa $ 1.3529 bayan da ya faɗi da wuri da kashi 0.8. Adadin da aka samu a kan bashin gwamnatin Italiya na shekaru 10 ya fadi da maki 14 zuwa kashi 6.93. Fihirisar S&P 500 ta sami kashi 0.5 cikin ɗari a jiya. Rahoton tattalin arziki a yau na iya nuna cewa masana'antun Amurka sun haura da kashi 0.4 a cikin Oktoba, ninki biyu na abin da ya gabata a watan da ya gabata.
Hoton Kasuwa da karfe 10:15 na safe agogon GMT (UK)
Kasashen Asiya / Pasifik sun fadi kasa warwas cikin kasuwancin sanyin safiya, Nikkei ya rufe 0.92%, Hang Seng ya rufe 2.0% da CSI ƙasa da 2.72%. ASX 200 ya rufe 0.89% ƙasa da 9.74% shekara a shekara. A cikin Turai yawancin manyan alamun ƙwayoyin cuta suna cikin kyakkyawan yanki. STOXX ya tashi sama da 1.05%, UK FTSE ya tashi da 0.26%, CAC ya tashi 0.75% sannan DAX ya tashi 0.70%. MIB yana jagorantar cajin zuwa 1.88% kuma lambar musayar Athens ita ce kawai laggard ta sauka 1.66%. Farashin danyen mai samfurin Brent ya yi daidai da dala shida ganga kuma gwal ya yi ƙasa da dala biyar.
Bayanin tattalin arziki wanda zai iya shafar jin ra'ayi a zaman la'asar
12:00 US - Aikace-aikacen MBA na MBA 11 Nuwamba
13:30 US - CPI Oktoba
14: 00 US - TIC Ya gudana Satumba
14:15 US - Kirkirar Masana'antu Oktoba
14: 15 US - Amfani da Octoberarfin amfani Oktoba
15: 00 US - NAHB Kasuwancin Gidaje Nuwamba
Tabbatar da cewa mafi shahararren taron labarai na tattalin arziki shine Amurka samar da masana'antun masana'antu. Lissafi daga binciken Bloomberg na manazarta sun yi hasashen adadi na 0.4% na wannan watan idan aka kwatanta da adadi na baya na 0.2%.
ci gaban tattalin arzikirikicin bashin Turai
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