GPB / USD ya faɗi yayin da kwangilar GDP na Burtaniya kuma gwamnatin Burtaniya ba ta sami ci gaba a kan Brexit ba
Hukumar kididdiga ta Burtaniya, ONS, ta bayar da kididdiga mai girgiza tattalin arzikin Burtaniya a safiyar Litinin. Ci gaban GDP ya shigo cikin -0.4% a watan a watan Disamba, ya rasa tsammanin ci gaban 0.00%. Ya kamata a lura da cewa a tarihance, a cikin tattalin arziki irin na Biritaniya; ayyukan da amfani suna motsawa, watan ƙarshe da kwata na shekara gabaɗaya tabbatacce ne, dangane da haɓaka. Amma kwata ya shigo cikin 0.2%, ya ɓace hasashen kuma ya faɗi daga 0.6% a cikin Q3. A cewar hukumomi daban-daban, ci gaban shekara-shekara ya zo daban-daban tsakanin 1.3% da 1.4%, ya dogara da lissafi. Kamfanin Reuters ya tabbatar da shi a kashi 1.3%, ya sauka daga 1.6%.
Sashen hulda da jama'a na gwamnatin Burtaniya ya shiga yanayin rikici, yana mai nuna cewa ci gaban ya tsaya ne kawai, kamar yadda ya yi a duk Turai. Koyaya, duban ƙarƙashin ƙwanƙolin ragon bayanan, yana haifar da tashin hankali. Fitar da kaya waje ya faɗi, duk da raunin fam. Zuba jari na kasuwanci shine -3.7% shekara a shekara kuma masana'antun yanzu suna cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki, bayan sun kawo watanni shida cikin jerin karatun marasa kyau. Masana'antar masana'antu da kayan aikin gini suma suna kwarkwasa tare da koma bayan tattalin arziki. Yawancin waɗannan ma'aunin, waɗanda aka ƙara a cikin wani mummunan tsari na IHS Markit PMIs da aka buga a makon da ya gabata, suna nuni ne ga tattalin arziƙin da ke kan hanyar koma bayan tattalin arziki, ko kuma a mafi kyawun ci gaba zuwa Q3-Q4 na 2019.
Sterling ya faɗi da yawancin manyan takwarorinsa a duk lokacin kasuwancin Litinin; GPB / USD sun ƙare ranar ciniki zuwa 0.67% a 1.286, suna faɗuwa ta hanyar S3, suna kawar da ribar da aka samu tun tsakiyar watan Janairu, yayin da a ƙarshe ya nisanta daga nauyin 1.300 da 200 DMA. EUR / GBP sun yi ciniki sama da 0.27% kuma yanzu suna kasuwanci kowane mako, a 0.878. A kan AUD, NZD da CHF, Sterling ya maimaita irin wannan yanayin na faduwa. Duk da bayanan ɓacin rai, Burtaniya FTSE 100 ta rufe 0.82% a ranar. Dangane da yawancin kamfanoni a cikin jerin sunadaran Amurka ne kuma suna kasuwanci akan daloli, faɗuwa a cikin sikandi yana da sakamako mai fa'ida.
Rashin ci gaba game da batun Brexit ya sake bayyana, kamar yadda mai shiga tsakani na EU Michel Barnier ya yi ta maimaita kalamai, ba tare da wata tabbas ba, cewa ba za a sake buɗe sharuɗɗan yarjejeniyar ficewa ba don sake tattaunawa. Duk da wannan, gwamnatin Tory ta sanya yatsunsu na gama kai a kunnuwansu, tare da Firayim Minista na iya ci gaba da ba da labari kamar ana iya ci gaba da tattaunawa. Majalisar dokokin Burtaniya za ta sake yin muhawara game da batun Brexit a ranar Laraba 13, yayin da ake hasashen cewa May za ta nemi majalisar karin lokaci, yayin da wa'adin 29 ga Maris ya matso da sauri. Tare da ɗan ƙaramin ɗan Turai, ko labarai na Yankin Euro da aka buga a ranar Litinin, manyan fihirisan Eurozone; CAC ta Faransa da DAX ta Jamus, sun rufe ranar kusan 1.0%. EUR / USD sun rufe ranar sauka kusan 0.46% a 1.127, saboda Yuro ya ba da darajar shi ga yawancin takwarorinsa.
Indices na Amurka sun sami wadataccen kasuwancin kasuwanci yayin taron New York a ranar Litinin, an rufe DJIA -0.21%, SPX ya tashi 0.07% kuma NASDAQ ya tashi 0.13%. Bikin tattaunawar cinikayyar, wanda aka shirya gudanarwa a wannan makon tare da China, ya auna kan shawarar masu saka hannun jari da kuma jin daɗinsu, yayin da masu saka hannun jari suka nemi kwanciyar hankali a cikin hadari na USD, wanda ya tashi tsakanin yawancin takwarorinsa. Tasirin (abin da aka fahimta a matsayin) sanarwa mai ƙarfi ta FOMC da kujerar Fed Jerome Powell, lokacin da suka riƙe maɓallin kewayawa zuwa kashi 2.5%, ga alama ya ragu. Ranar ƙarshe na 2 ga Maris, don Amurka ta ɗora harajin 25% a kan $ 200b na shigo da China cikin Amurka, da alama ya ƙare. Sa hannun kai tsaye kawai daga Trump, mai yiwuwa ne ya canza matsalar.
Babban tasirin da 'yan kasuwar FX ke bukatar sanyawa don zaman na ranar Talata, sun hada da jawaban Mark Carney Gwamnan Bankin Ingila da karfe 13:00 na dare agogon Ingila da Jerome Powell, shugaban babban bankin Amurka Fed, a 17: 45 na yamma agogon Ingila. Ba a riga an fitar da abin da jawaban nasu suka kunsa ba, kewayon batun da za su iya rufewa yana da mahimmanci.
Tare da Mista Carney batutuwa na: hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, ana iya tattauna batutuwan haɓaka GDP na Burtaniya da Brexit. Tare da Mista Powell batun batun zai iya haɗa da rikice-rikicen cinikayya da ke gudana tare da China, yiwuwar ƙarin riba ya karu a lokacin 2019, haɓakar ci gaban duniya da ke iya faɗuwa da matakai daban-daban na kwanan nan game da tattalin arzikin Amurka, ba ya shigowa kamar yadda aka faɗi. A dabi'ance, yayin gabatar da jawabai biyu ga masu sauraron su, kuɗaɗen da mutane ke da alhakin su, za su kasance a cikin ido.
« RBNZ suna shirin sanar da riƙe adadin OCR a safiyar Laraba, yan kasuwa na FX yakamata, duk da haka, su mai da hankali ga taron manema labarai na Gwamna Adrian Orr Kasuwannin duniya sun taru yayin da aka guji rufe gwamnatin Amurka kuma Trump ya isa Xi don taron Amurka da China »
