Mayar da hankali zai kasance akan Mario Draghi a ranar Alhamis, lokacin da yake gabatar da bayani game da tsarin kuɗin ECB, bayan da aka bayyana shawarar ƙimar riba.
A ranar Alhamis 25 ga Janairu, a 12:45 na dare agogon Ingila (GMT), Babban Bankin Tarayyar Turai na ECB, zai sanar da hukuncin da suka yanke game da kudin ruwa na EZ. Jim kaɗan bayan haka (da ƙarfe 13:30 na yamma), Mario Draghi, shugaban ECB, zai yi taron manema labarai a Frankfurt, don bayyana dalilan yanke shawara. Zai kuma gabatar da bayani game da manufofin kuɗi na ECB, wanda ya shafi manyan fannoni biyu, da farko; yiwuwar ci gaban APP (shirin siyan kadari). Abu na biyu; lokacin da lokaci yayi daidai don fara haɓaka darajar riba ta EZ, daga farashinsa na 0.00% na yanzu.
Yarjejeniyar da aka yadu, wanda aka tattara daga masana tattalin arziƙin da Reuters da Bloomberg suka bincika, ba don canji ba ne daga ƙimar 0.00% na yanzu, tare da ajiyar kuɗin da za a ajiye a -0.40%. Koyaya, taron Mario Draghi ne wanda maiyuwa shine babban abin da aka mai da hankali. ECB ya fara lalata APP a cikin 2017, yana rage kuzari daga € 60b zuwa € 30b a wata. Shawara ta farko daga ECB, da zarar an yi amfani da taper, ya haɗa da ƙarshen shirin motsa jiki zuwa watan Satumba na 2018. Masu sharhi sun haɗu a mahangar cewa; kawai da zarar APP ta ƙare, babban bankin zai duba zuwa duk wani yuwuwar ƙimar tashin hankali.
Hankali na yau da kullun, hangen nesa na yau da kullun, zai kasance don bincika saurin janyewar motsawar, kafin haɓaka ƙimomi. Tare da hauhawar farashi a 1.4% da matakin kashi 2% da ECB ke furtawa a matsayin matakin manufa, babban bankin na iya samun hujja yayin bayyana cewa har yanzu suna da wadataccen sassauci da kuma dakin motsawa, don kiyaye shirin motsa rai da rai, sama da asalin su na asali .
EUR / USD ya tashi da kusan 15% a cikin 2017, manyan kuɗin biyu sun kusan kusan. 2% a cikin 2018, manazarta da yawa sun bayyana 1.230 a matsayin mabuɗin matakin da ECB ke ɗaukar Euro ɗin a matsayin darajar da ta dace, sama da hakan na iya wakiltar shingen dogon lokaci ga masana'antar Eurozone da fitar da shi zuwa ƙasashen waje. Kodayake shigo da kayayyaki, gami da makamashi, saboda haka suna da rahusa.
Yayinda manufofin ECB daban-daban suke cikin kwamiti, kamar su; Jens Weidmann da Ardo Hansson, sun yi kira da a tsaurara manufofin kudi a farkon rabin shekarar 2018, sauran jami'an ECB a kwanan nan sun bayyana damuwarsu cewa ECB za ta ci gaba da yin taka tsan-tsan da daidaita manufofin kan mai amsawa, sabanin pro -mai aiki. Mataimakin Shugaban ECB, Vitor Constancio ya nuna damuwarsa a makon da ya gabata game da “yuro din da ya tashi kwatsam, wanda ba ya nuna sauye-sauye a kan muhimman abubuwa” Yayinda memba na Majalisar Gwamnati Ewald Nowotny ya bayyana kwanan nan cewa darajar kudin Euro ba da dadewa ba "ba zai taimaka ba" ga tattalin arzikin Yankin. ECB ba shi da ƙimar canjin canjin kuɗi na EUR / USD, amma, Nowotny ya dage cewa babban bankin zai sa ido kan abubuwan da ke faruwa.
A cikin sauki; Mario Draghi a matsayin mai mahimmanci ga manufar ECB da muryar jagorar ci gaba, na iya zama yana da ra'ayin cewa euro tana da matsayi daidai da manyan takwarorinta kuma raguwar farko ta APP tayi aiki sosai; haifar da wani canji mai ban mamaki a ƙimar kuɗin, ko cutar da tasirin tattalin arziƙin EZ Saboda haka jagorar sa ta gaba a taron da bayanin manufofin kuɗi, mai yiwuwa ya kasance tsaka tsaki, akasin dovish, ko hawkish.
MAHIMMAN TATTALIN ARZIKIN KUDI DON TURA
- GDP YoY 2.6%.
- Kudin sha'awa 0.00%.
- Hauhawar farashi 1.4%.
- Rashin aikin yi 8.7%.
- Girman albashi 1.6%.
- Bashi v GDP 89.2%.
- Hadadden PMI 58.6.
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