Euro whipsaws a cikin manyan jeri bayan siginar ECB mai rikitarwa, kasuwannin daidaiton Amurka sun faɗi yayin da farashin FOMC ya yi fare
Yuro ya sami gogewa kan farashin bulala tare da takwarorinsa yayin zaman na yamma yayin da ECB ta ba da sanarwar matakin kayyade farashinta tare da bayyana sabon alkibla dangane da ci gaban gaba. Maimakon sanar da rage kudin ruwa a cikin gajeren lokaci, ECB da Shugaba Mario Draghi sun ba masu binciken FX da masu sharhi mamaki yayin da suke ba da shawarar cewa za a iya dakatar da kowane matakin har zuwa kwata biyu na biyu na 2020 kuma za su kula da yadda aka saba dalilai na: GDP girma, aikin yi da hauhawar farashi kafin haɓaka shirin TLTRO III na yanzu.
Tsarin ECB ya sake inganta manufofin kudi ya dauki mahalarta kasuwar FX ta hanyar kirkirar farashin bulala a cikin nau'i-nau'i da yawa wanda ya zama yaudara ga kasuwanci yayin zaman rana. EUR / USD sun yi ciniki a cikin fannoni daban-daban, na yau da kullun, suna jujjuyawa tsakanin ɓarna na farko da ƙwarin gwiwa na ƙarshe zuwa ƙarshen kasuwancin Alhamis. Da ƙarfe 20:52 na dare lokacin Burtaniya manyan abokan kasuwanci suka yi ciniki a 1.114 sama da 0.04%. Wataƙila mafi kyawun motsi don kuɗin Euro ya nuna ta EUR / CHF; ciniki da farko a ƙasa da mahimmancin yau da kullun-giciye-biyu ya ɓarke yayin da aka watsa manufofin ECB, ya keta matakin na uku na juriya, R3, don kasuwanci zuwa 0.68%. DAX ta Jamus ta rufe -1.33%, ma'auni daban-daban na IFO na Jamusanci sun ɓace game da ƙididdigar ƙididdigar kasuwar daidaito a duk faɗin Turai, kamar yadda sabon jagorar ci gaban da ECB ya sanar.
Labari mai dadi na tattalin arziki a tsarin sayar da kaya da kuma da'awar rashin aikin yi ga Amurka, ya fusata da yawa masu saka jari da 'yan kasuwa suna ganin cewa FOMC ba ta da matsala game da sanar da yanke a cikin mafi yawan kudin ruwa da akalla 25bps a ranar 31 ga watan Yuli. Sabbin umarni don kayayyakin da Amurka ke kerawa masu ɗorewa sun tashi da 2% a cikin Yuni, mafi girma daga watan Agusta 2018 da sake juyawa -2.3% raguwa a watan Mayu, yayin da doke tsammanin kasuwa na ci gaban 0.7% ta ɗan nesa. Buƙatar kayan aiki ya ƙaru sosai cikin kusan watanni 18; odar kayan sufuri ya tashi da sauri, galibi jirgin farar hula, motocin hawa da sassa.
Sabbin mako-mako da ci gaba da da'awar rashin aikin yi suma sun koma baya, alhamis mafi kyau fiye da bayanan tattalin arziki da ake tsammani ya sa masu saka hannun jari na Amurka sun rage imaninsu a cikin FOMC na rage ƙimar mako mai zuwa, saboda haka kasuwannin daidaiton Amurka da aka siyar kamar yadda bashin kamfanoni mai rahusa ba mai yuwuwa ba . SPX ya rufe -0.51% kuma NASDAQ 100 ya rufe -1.01%. Da karfe 21:15 pm na dare agogon Ingila, farashin dala, DXY, yayi kasuwanci da kashi 0.07% a 97.80 yana ci gaba da tashin 1.60% kowane wata.
Mayar da hankali a ranar Juma'a 26 ga Yuli zai fi mai da hankali kan sabbin alkaluman cigaban GDP na Amurka da hukumar kididdiga ta BEA za ta buga a 13:30 na yamma agogon Ingila. Dukkanin kamfanin dillancin labarai na Bloomberg da na kamfanin dillancin labarai na Reuters suna tsammanin karanta 1.8% na Q2 a kowace shekara, wanda ya fadi daga 3.1% na Q1. Ta yaya kasuwannin duka lambobin Amurka da dalar Amurka za su yi, zai dogara ne akan ko an kimanta kimantawa. Irin wannan ƙaramin karatun (idan an sadu da shi) na iya ƙarfafa FOMC don rage ƙimar ribar da ke ƙasa da matakin ta na 2.5% na yanzu, saboda haka, a hankali-fahimtar karatun GDP mara kyau zai iya zama mai ban tsoro don daidaito da ɗaukar nauyin USD.
A 21:30 na yamma a ranar Alhamis USD / JPY sun yi ciniki zuwa 0.42% kuma USD / CHF sun yi ciniki da 0.63% kamar yadda tsararrun tsaran-tsere na gargajiya suka ba da dama ga roƙon kuɗin ajiyar duniya. GBP / USD sun yi ciniki -0.24% a 1.245 kamar yadda farashin ya kusa S1. EUR / GBP da farko anyi ciniki kusa da S1, amma yayin da ra'ayin euro ya juya bayan watsawar ECB, masu haɗin giciye sun kusanci R1 kuma sun tashi 0.30% a ranar.
Sterling ya kasa samun gagarumar nasara akan sauran takwarorinsa yayin da zaman majalisar dokokin Burtaniya a hukumance ya ƙare a ranar Alhamis, amma ba kafin sabon Firayim Minista Johnson ya gabatar da wani mummunan abu ba, bazuwar magana a cikin House of Commons da ke barazanar EU da ficewar ba tare da wata yarjejeniya ba kuma a take lalata duk wata kyakkyawar niyya Theresa May da ta gina tare da takwarorinta na Turai.
« Idan hasashe na GDP na Amurka ya cika to FOMC na iya amsawa a mako mai zuwa ta hanyar rage babbar riba zuwa 2.00% Mayar da hankali yana komawa zuwa sabon adadi na G2 na GDP na Amurka don alamomi game da alkiblar manufofin kuɗi na FOMC. »
