Bayanin Tattalin Arziki Don Kallon Mako
Babban sakin bayanan tattalin arzikin Amurka na wannan makon zai kasance umarni ne na kayan dindindin ga watan Afrilu a ranar 24 ga Mayu.
Ayyukan tattalin arziki da ke kewaye da motoci ya kasance alherin ceton Q1 GDP, wanda ke da alhakin ba da gudummawar + 1.1% daga cikin jimlar ƙididdigar ƙididdigar tsoffin kayayyaki na 1.6% (watau ba a samun ci gaba a harkokin tattalin arziƙin da ke kewaye da motocin, buƙatun cikin gida na ƙarshe zai kasance da ƙasa sosai)
Wannan ba abu ɗaya bane: an ƙara motocin 0.5% zuwa Q4 2011 GDP kuma. Abin tambaya a nan shi ne shin ko saurin fashewar wuya daga aikin mota zai iya ci gaba?
Muhawarar "pro" sune:
- jirgin ruwan Amurka yana tsufa
- kafin watanni biyu da suka gabata, aikin yi ya inganta
- sababbin motoci suna ba da ci gaban fasaha da yawa kamar ƙwarewar mai, da dai sauransu. '' Hujjar 'con' ita ce ainihin bayanan aiki - albashi, albashi, awanni da aka yi aiki - kwanan nan sun yi laushi kuma ba su da ƙarfin da za su iya tallafawa babban amfani da hawa. Takaddama ba-macro ba za ta kasance cewa ingantattun motocin Amurka suna cin kashin kasuwa - koda kuwa gabaɗaya tallan masana'antu na iya kasancewa cikin matsakaiciyar matsakaici
Muna tsammanin motoci su ba da gudummawa mai ƙarfi ga umarnin kayayyaki masu ɗorewa tare da ƙarfin ƙarfin alama ta ISM. Halin haɗari a nan shi ne cewa sabbin umarni a Boeing sun faɗi ƙasa zuwa sabbin jirage huɗu kawai. Wannan yana wakiltar ragi sama da 90% daga watan da ya gabata, kuma zai iya warware duk ƙarfin daga sabon umarnin mota.
Har yanzu, muna tsammanin ci gaban 0.5% akan daidaituwa. Daga cikin mahimman bayanai na kalandar bayanan tattalin arzikin Burtaniya na mako mai zuwa za a saki sakin CPI da hauhawar farashin RPI a watan Afrilu. Muna sa ran hauhawar farashin CPI ya ragu daga 3.5% y / y zuwa 3.3%, yayin da hauhawar farashin RPI zai iya tsayawa a 3.6% y / y. Hauhawar farashi ya kasance yana kan hanya mai matukar sauka tun daga watan Satumba, duk da haka, wanda ya zo karshen kwatsam a watan da ya gabata lokacin da farashin ya koma baya. Muna ganin matsakaiciyar ci gaba da raguwa cikin tsakiyar shekara, amma bayan haka raunin zai iya rasa ƙarfi. Babban direbobin farashin da aka samu a wannan watan na iya kasancewa giya, taba da farashin jigilar kayayyaki, yayin da babban tasirin tasirin farashin jirgin zai samar da jan hankali a kan buga taken.
Gabaɗaya, hauhawar farashi yana da ƙarfi fiye da yadda ake tsammani a farkon shekarar. Wani ɓangare na wannan saboda tsadar farashin mai zuwa US $ 125 / bbl har zuwa tsakiyar Maris.
Bayan mun faɗi haka, digo zuwa kusan dalar Amurka 110 / bbl a wannan makon yakamata ya ɗan cire zafi daga farashin mai da ke zuwa. Koyaya, wannan ci gaban yana da wuya ya canza babban hoto da yawa. Ra'ayinmu shine cewa hauhawar farashin CPI kawai zata ɗan tsakaita ƙasa da kashi 3% y / y a wannan shekara.
Jerin tsararrun farashi da aka tsara kamar farashi na karatun jami'a, harajin zunubi, karuwar jinginar gida, da dai sauransu su bar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ci gaba sama da burin 2% na Bankin Ingila.
Tattalin arzikin Thailand ya kasance a kan hanyar dawowa tare da amfani da keɓaɓɓu da fitarwa da ke tallafawa sake dawowa a farkon kwata na shekara. Effortsoƙarin sake ginawa da haɓaka kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗe sun kasance manyan abubuwan da ke haifar da farfadowar Thai bayan ambaliyar bara. Koyaya, wannan ci gaban ya kasance mara daidaituwa a tsakanin ɓangarorin masana'antu kuma yayin da wasu daga cikinsu suka dawo da matsayinsu na rigakafin ambaliyar, wasu kuwa suna ƙarƙashin. Muna tsammanin tattalin arzikin Thai zai haɓaka 5.0% y / y a cikin 2012; duk da haka, muna sa ran samun ci gaba kusa-da-sifili a farkon kwata na shekara bayan raguwa da 9.0% y / y a cikin watanni ukun ƙarshe na 2011.
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