Oktoba 5 • Sharhin kasuwancin • Ra'ayoyin 6544 • 1 Comment on Shin har yanzu wata katuwar mace da ta mutu tana tashi yayin da ta cika shekaru tara?
Lokacin da manyan kasuwanni suka fara 'daidaitawa' a ƙarshen watan Yuli - farkon watan Agusta yawancin masu hikima da 'yar tsana da aka ba da izinin su nan da nan zuwa' astroturf 'ta iska, da tattaunawa da kuma shirye-shiryen watsa labarai da ake zargi da shi don kwantar da hankalin jama'a game da tasirin. Daya daga cikin fitattun sakonni shi ne; "Da kyau har yanzu muna cikin yankin da ya dace na shekara, kuma ya, wannan na iya zama lokaci mai kyau don karɓar wasu ciniki" Er… Yayi..akowane ..
Burtaniya FTSE 100 yanzu ta sauka da kashi 12.3% a kowace shekara, dangane da irin cinikayyar da kuma wacce fannoni da masana za su yi mana caca ne ra'ayin kowa. Dangane da wanda masu sharhi suke magana a kan suna da bishiyoyin kudi na sihiri, tare da wadatattun kudi da ke shirin 'saka hannun jari', shi ma wani sirri ne. Sai dai in ba shakka mafi yawanci yakamata suyi Hugh Hendry na Eclectica Asset Management kuma suna da ɗan gajeren gajere a kan Hang Seng ta amfani da algorithms mai daɗi, ko yin John Paulson kuma su hango faɗuwar kasuwar jingina.
Tasirin wannan gyara zai shafi fansho na talakawa masu aiki tuƙuru, waɗanda politiciansan siyasanmu ke kira a kai a kai a matsayin "yin abin da ya dace", yana da girma. Gaskiyar cewa FTSE 100 yanzu yana kusa da 30% ƙasa a cikin shekaru goman da suka gabata a cikin 2007 ya sanya yawancin gudunmawar fansho (ga talakawa) marasa ƙima a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata. Koyaya, manyan tsare-tsaren Ponzi da aka kirkira, fansho, ba zasu taba shigowa da suka ba ta hanyar manyan kafafen yada labarai, wannan akwatin Pandora daya ne wanda zai kasance a rufe da karfi kasancewar hakan yakai ga ginshikin aikinmu.
Zuwa yanzu mafi yawan sun yarda cewa rashin aikin yi bai dawo ba, sai dai idan nasara, misali USA, za'a auna ta kashe kusan tiriliyan $ 1.3 da sarrafawa don kiyaye rashin aikin yi a 9%. Matakan bailout da tallafi da ba za a iya lissafa su ba a cikin Amurka, tare da zirp, sun kirkiri taron kasuwar beran da ba mu taba gani ba daga 2010. Ta yaya za a iya sake maimaita wannan a cikin 2012, yanzu bankunan tsakiya sun bayyana cewa ba su da tunani da harsasai, shi ne Babbar tambayar tana ci gaba, tsammani, kuma babban tunani ne, cewa waɗannan rikice-rikicen ba sa shiga wani sabon yanayi mafi haɗari. Idan kasuwanni sun sake dawowa kan abubuwan 2007, ko kuma matakan Jan 2011 na baya-bayan nan, to a yanzu mafi yawan sun yarda cewa za'a iya sayan kowane 'sakewa' akan lokacin aro wanda yayi daidai da girman tallafin 'sabo' tare da ƙarin kuɗi.
Duk da labarai masu dadi cewa troika da EU musamman sun bayyana daga karshe suna narkar da zabin su zuwa ingantaccen bayani, taron karshen kasuwar da aka fuskanta a Amurka, wanda ya haifar da SPX rufe 2.2% (kasancewar ya sauka da irin wannan adadin a mataki daya ta hanyar zaman), bai mamaye kasuwannin Asiya ba, Nikkei ya rufe 0.86% sannan Hang Seng ya rufe 3.4%. Indexididdigar Hong Kong yanzu ta faɗi ƙasa mai ƙarfi 28.22% shekara a shekara. Muyi fatan mazauna Hong Kong da yan fansho basu dauki shawarar masu hikimarsu ba kuma suka yi kokarin zabar kasan babbar kasuwar su, ko kuma watakila suna bin Eclectica ..
Moody's Investors Service ne suka yanke darajar daraja ta kasar Italiya a karon farko cikin kusan shekaru 2 da yammacin jiya kan damuwar da cewa ci gaban Italia mai rauni na tsawon lokaci zai sanya zai yi wuya a rage bashi mafi girma na biyu a yankin. Moody ya saukar da darajar Italiyanci matakai uku zuwa A2 daga Aa20, tare da mummunan ra'ayi. Wannan matakin ya zo ne bayan da Standard & Poor ta rage darajar Italiya a ranar 1993 ga Satumba a karo na farko a cikin shekaru biyar. Moody's ya yanke Italiya ta ƙarshe a cikin Mayu XNUMX. Koyaya, abin da ya fi jan hankali shi ne shawarar Moody da ba su gama gamawa da yankan rago da ƙonawa ba.
Duk sai dai masu karfin ikon mallakar yankin Yuro suna iya fuskantar matsin lamba na ci gaba akan kimarsu. Sakamakon haka, Moody yana tsammanin ƙananan ƙasashe da ke ƙasa da AAA don riƙe manyan ƙimomi, babu matsin lamba nan da nan da zai iya haifar da ƙasƙanci ga ƙasashe masu darajar AAA.
Indididdigar Turai sun dawo da safiyar yau, STOXX yana haɓaka yanzu 2.1%, UK FTSE ya tashi 1.73%, CAC ya tashi 2.41% kuma DAX ya tashi 1.94%. Farashin danyen mai na Brent ya tashi $ 166 kan kowace ganga kuma zinariya ta yi kasa da $ 22 a cikin oza. Gabatarwar daidaiton rayuwar yau da kullun ta SPX a halin yanzu yana ƙasa kimanin 0.5%. Yuro ya zubar da yawancin ƙananan ribar da ya samu game da dala bayan manyan abubuwan da aka siyar a gogewa a cikin fewan kwanakin da suka gabata. Ya ci gaba da nuna godiya game da Switzerlandy kamar yadda yake da tsaka-tsalle wanda yake daidai da dala da yen. Dalar Aussie ta tashi da dalar Amurka a kasuwancin dare da safe.
Babban sakin bayanan da ka iya shafar jin ra'ayi a ko kusa da buɗe taron zaman na New York sun haɗa da masu zuwa;
12:00 US - Aikace-aikacen MBA na MBA Sep
13:15 US - Canjin Canjin ADP na Satumba
15: 00 US - ISM ba-Manufacturing Manufacturing Satumba
Babban abin sha'awa shine adadi na ADP wanda bashi da gaskiya kuma ba'a iya dogaro dashi da wuri. Binciken Bloomberg na manazarta ya yi hasashen karuwar 70,000, idan aka kwatanta da na watan jiya wanda ya tashi 91,000. Zai yiwu a sake yin kwaskwarima don watan Agusta wanda ke ƙunshe cikin sakin bayanan. Shafin ISM na iya shafar jin zuciya, kamar yadda tare da yawan karatu adadi da ke sama da 50 ana ɗauka mai kyau. Manazarta da Bloomberg suka bincika sun nuna tsammanin na 52.8, idan aka kwatanta da na watan jiya na 53.3.
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Shin har yanzu wata matacciyar kyanwa tana tashewa lokacin da shekaru tara suka kare?
Oktoba 5 • Sharhin kasuwancin • Ra'ayoyin 6544 • 1 Comment on Shin har yanzu wata katuwar mace da ta mutu tana tashi yayin da ta cika shekaru tara?
Lokacin da manyan kasuwanni suka fara 'daidaitawa' a ƙarshen watan Yuli - farkon watan Agusta yawancin masu hikima da 'yar tsana da aka ba da izinin su nan da nan zuwa' astroturf 'ta iska, da tattaunawa da kuma shirye-shiryen watsa labarai da ake zargi da shi don kwantar da hankalin jama'a game da tasirin. Daya daga cikin fitattun sakonni shi ne; "Da kyau har yanzu muna cikin yankin da ya dace na shekara, kuma ya, wannan na iya zama lokaci mai kyau don karɓar wasu ciniki" Er… Yayi..akowane ..
Burtaniya FTSE 100 yanzu ta sauka da kashi 12.3% a kowace shekara, dangane da irin cinikayyar da kuma wacce fannoni da masana za su yi mana caca ne ra'ayin kowa. Dangane da wanda masu sharhi suke magana a kan suna da bishiyoyin kudi na sihiri, tare da wadatattun kudi da ke shirin 'saka hannun jari', shi ma wani sirri ne. Sai dai in ba shakka mafi yawanci yakamata suyi Hugh Hendry na Eclectica Asset Management kuma suna da ɗan gajeren gajere a kan Hang Seng ta amfani da algorithms mai daɗi, ko yin John Paulson kuma su hango faɗuwar kasuwar jingina.
Tasirin wannan gyara zai shafi fansho na talakawa masu aiki tuƙuru, waɗanda politiciansan siyasanmu ke kira a kai a kai a matsayin "yin abin da ya dace", yana da girma. Gaskiyar cewa FTSE 100 yanzu yana kusa da 30% ƙasa a cikin shekaru goman da suka gabata a cikin 2007 ya sanya yawancin gudunmawar fansho (ga talakawa) marasa ƙima a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata. Koyaya, manyan tsare-tsaren Ponzi da aka kirkira, fansho, ba zasu taba shigowa da suka ba ta hanyar manyan kafafen yada labarai, wannan akwatin Pandora daya ne wanda zai kasance a rufe da karfi kasancewar hakan yakai ga ginshikin aikinmu.
Zuwa yanzu mafi yawan sun yarda cewa rashin aikin yi bai dawo ba, sai dai idan nasara, misali USA, za'a auna ta kashe kusan tiriliyan $ 1.3 da sarrafawa don kiyaye rashin aikin yi a 9%. Matakan bailout da tallafi da ba za a iya lissafa su ba a cikin Amurka, tare da zirp, sun kirkiri taron kasuwar beran da ba mu taba gani ba daga 2010. Ta yaya za a iya sake maimaita wannan a cikin 2012, yanzu bankunan tsakiya sun bayyana cewa ba su da tunani da harsasai, shi ne Babbar tambayar tana ci gaba, tsammani, kuma babban tunani ne, cewa waɗannan rikice-rikicen ba sa shiga wani sabon yanayi mafi haɗari. Idan kasuwanni sun sake dawowa kan abubuwan 2007, ko kuma matakan Jan 2011 na baya-bayan nan, to a yanzu mafi yawan sun yarda cewa za'a iya sayan kowane 'sakewa' akan lokacin aro wanda yayi daidai da girman tallafin 'sabo' tare da ƙarin kuɗi.
Duk da labarai masu dadi cewa troika da EU musamman sun bayyana daga karshe suna narkar da zabin su zuwa ingantaccen bayani, taron karshen kasuwar da aka fuskanta a Amurka, wanda ya haifar da SPX rufe 2.2% (kasancewar ya sauka da irin wannan adadin a mataki daya ta hanyar zaman), bai mamaye kasuwannin Asiya ba, Nikkei ya rufe 0.86% sannan Hang Seng ya rufe 3.4%. Indexididdigar Hong Kong yanzu ta faɗi ƙasa mai ƙarfi 28.22% shekara a shekara. Muyi fatan mazauna Hong Kong da yan fansho basu dauki shawarar masu hikimarsu ba kuma suka yi kokarin zabar kasan babbar kasuwar su, ko kuma watakila suna bin Eclectica ..
Moody's Investors Service ne suka yanke darajar daraja ta kasar Italiya a karon farko cikin kusan shekaru 2 da yammacin jiya kan damuwar da cewa ci gaban Italia mai rauni na tsawon lokaci zai sanya zai yi wuya a rage bashi mafi girma na biyu a yankin. Moody ya saukar da darajar Italiyanci matakai uku zuwa A2 daga Aa20, tare da mummunan ra'ayi. Wannan matakin ya zo ne bayan da Standard & Poor ta rage darajar Italiya a ranar 1993 ga Satumba a karo na farko a cikin shekaru biyar. Moody's ya yanke Italiya ta ƙarshe a cikin Mayu XNUMX. Koyaya, abin da ya fi jan hankali shi ne shawarar Moody da ba su gama gamawa da yankan rago da ƙonawa ba.
Duk sai dai masu karfin ikon mallakar yankin Yuro suna iya fuskantar matsin lamba na ci gaba akan kimarsu. Sakamakon haka, Moody yana tsammanin ƙananan ƙasashe da ke ƙasa da AAA don riƙe manyan ƙimomi, babu matsin lamba nan da nan da zai iya haifar da ƙasƙanci ga ƙasashe masu darajar AAA.
Indididdigar Turai sun dawo da safiyar yau, STOXX yana haɓaka yanzu 2.1%, UK FTSE ya tashi 1.73%, CAC ya tashi 2.41% kuma DAX ya tashi 1.94%. Farashin danyen mai na Brent ya tashi $ 166 kan kowace ganga kuma zinariya ta yi kasa da $ 22 a cikin oza. Gabatarwar daidaiton rayuwar yau da kullun ta SPX a halin yanzu yana ƙasa kimanin 0.5%. Yuro ya zubar da yawancin ƙananan ribar da ya samu game da dala bayan manyan abubuwan da aka siyar a gogewa a cikin fewan kwanakin da suka gabata. Ya ci gaba da nuna godiya game da Switzerlandy kamar yadda yake da tsaka-tsalle wanda yake daidai da dala da yen. Dalar Aussie ta tashi da dalar Amurka a kasuwancin dare da safe.
Babban sakin bayanan da ka iya shafar jin ra'ayi a ko kusa da buɗe taron zaman na New York sun haɗa da masu zuwa;
12:00 US - Aikace-aikacen MBA na MBA Sep
13:15 US - Canjin Canjin ADP na Satumba
15: 00 US - ISM ba-Manufacturing Manufacturing Satumba
Babban abin sha'awa shine adadi na ADP wanda bashi da gaskiya kuma ba'a iya dogaro dashi da wuri. Binciken Bloomberg na manazarta ya yi hasashen karuwar 70,000, idan aka kwatanta da na watan jiya wanda ya tashi 91,000. Zai yiwu a sake yin kwaskwarima don watan Agusta wanda ke ƙunshe cikin sakin bayanan. Shafin ISM na iya shafar jin zuciya, kamar yadda tare da yawan karatu adadi da ke sama da 50 ana ɗauka mai kyau. Manazarta da Bloomberg suka bincika sun nuna tsammanin na 52.8, idan aka kwatanta da na watan jiya na 53.3.
tsoratar da sharhin kasuwagyaran kasuwakoma bayan tattalin arziki
« Yaushe Troick's Chicken mara Kaifin Kai zai Fado kan Takaitacciyar Bailout? Dexia na Tsakar dare »