Shin Philip Hammond, shugabar gwamnatin Burtaniya za ta iya gabatar da kasafin kudi don kwantar da hankalin jijiyoyin Brexit?
A ranar Laraba 22 ga Nuwamba Nuwamba 12:30 pm GMT, Shugabar Gwamnatin Burtaniya za ta gabatar da Kasafin Kasafin Kudin ga Majalisar. Gabaɗaya an yarda cewa Philip Hammond ya yi kasafin kuɗi na farko a watan Nuwamba na ƙarshe, yana mai ba da sanarwar ƙarin haraji mai ban mamaki da mamaki ga masu aikin kansu. Nan da nan sai ya jawo suka daga magoya baya masu ra'ayin mazan jiya da sauran takwarorinsa 'yan majalisu, wadanda suka fusata kuma suka yi mamakin cewa zai hukunta wani bangare na ainihin masu kada kuri'unsu; kananan masu gudanar da kasuwanci, a lokutan ci gaba da matsin tattalin arziki. A bayyane ba a tattauna karin ba tare da sauran ministocin majalisar kuma a cikin hawan hawa abin kunya, an yi watsi da manufar da aka nufa da sauri bayan wasu kwanaki.
Yawanci ana ɗaukarsa azancin talauci ne, Hammond yana da ɗan raunin ƙasa don isar da kowane alƙawari dangane da kashe alƙawarin kowane abu, banda mahalli. Duk da alƙawarin da suka gabata na ƙara ginin gidajan zamantakewar, masu ra'ayin mazan jiya suna lura da mafi ƙarancin gidan majalisa na shekara-shekara da aka kafa a cikin 2016 na kusan 5,500 kuma tare da kusan. Gidajen 13,000 da aka siyar a ƙarƙashin haƙƙin siya makirci, wannan ya bar gibi mai mahimmanci YoY.
A matsayinmu na mai jan hankali kuma mai lashe zabe zamu iya tsammanin labarai game da karin ginin gidaje masu zaman kansu, kimanin 300,000 a shekara, tare da tallafi kai tsaye ga magina ta hanyar fadada taimakon gwamnati don sayen makirci. Wannan makircin ya bawa masu saye damar fara sayen sabbin gidaje tare da bashi daga bangaren gwamnati, wanda hakan ya haifar da kusan kashi 25% na kudin sabbin gidajen tunda aka fara shi tun daga watan Afrilun 2013. Labari mai dadi ga masu jefa kuri'a wadanda suka siya a farko, amma gwagwarmaya ga iyalai matasa dole su fitar da karuwar bashi da zasu saya.
Tare da haɓakar kwata-kwata na Burtaniya a 0.4% da haɓakar shekara-shekara na 1.5%, an yi hasashen zai faɗo zuwa 1.4% ko ƙasa da haka a cikin 2017, alamu na tattalin arziki da ke tafiya zuwa Brexit ba su da alƙawari. Amma tare da hasashen gibin kasafin kudi don ragewa kimanin £ 7b a cikin 2017, a fasaha Hammond yana da sararin numfashi don injiniyan wasu ba da kyauta a cikin kasafin kuɗi. Koyaya, an yi hasashen raguwa a cikin 2020 ta £ 10b kuma mafi yawan kwanan nan na MoM, wanda aka saki a ranar Talata 21st, an rasa hasashen da kusan. £ 500b
Ana sa ran Hammond zai sami kudi don ma'aikatan gwamnati ta hanyar sassauta albashin, amma duk wani tashin zai iya yiwuwa har yanzu ya fadi a karkashin kashi 3% na hauhawar farashi, ana kuma sa ran zai rage mako shida na jiran lokacin masu karban walwala da jin dadin duniya a halin yanzu suna fuskantar. Duk da fuskantar gibin £ 4b, NHS da wuya ya sami ƙarin kuɗi, haka ma makarantu, kamar yadda Tories suka yi imanin makarantu suna aiki sosai a ƙarƙashin matsalolin yanzu. Dalibai na iya ganin ƙofar da za su biya bashin ɗalibin da aka ɗaga zuwa £ 25,000.
Kamar koyaushe, haraji kan barasa da taba zai iya tashi, amma ƙarin harajin da aka nufa kan mai zai kasance a daskararre, kamar yadda aka yi tun daga 2010, wannan zai ci £ 750m a shekara. Hammond zai iya gamawa da albishir na daga alawus na harajin mutum zuwa £ 12,500, ma'ana cewa mafi ƙarancin ma'aikata ba sa biyan kuɗi kaɗan, amma zai iya samun 'yan ƙarancin fa'idodin aiki.
A tarihance darajar fam din lokaci-lokaci tana yin bulala sosai, tare da manyan takwarorinta, idan ana gabatar da bayanan kasafin kudi. Gabaɗaya ana ɗaukar kasafin kuɗin Burtaniya a matsayin ƙazamar riba don wannan fam ɗin kuma wannan kasafin kuɗi na iya haifar da irin wannan tsarin, dangane da saita saiti mai kyau. Amma dole ne a lura cewa shigar da Hammond shine manufofin kuɗi, manufofin masanin injiniyan BoE mai zaman kansa, Hammond bashi da iko akan QE, ko ƙimar riba. Saboda haka duk wani babban spikes a ƙimar fam, saboda sanarwa mai ban mamaki, da wuya. Koyaya, 'yan kasuwa masu tsaka-tsalle su kasance masu faɗakarwa yayin watsa kasafin kuɗi kuma daidaita matsayinsu da haɗari daidai da haka.
BAYANIN MASU NUNA TATTALIN ARZIKI
GDP na haɓaka shekara shekara 1.5%.
GDP ya bunƙasa kowane wata 0.4%.
CPI kumbura 3%.
Girman albashi 2.2%.
Rashin aikin yi 4.3%.
Kudin sha'awa 0.5%.
Bashin Gwamnati v GDP 89.3%.
Ayyuka PMI 55.6.
Ci gaban tallace-tallace na YoY -0.3%.
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