Kasuwancen Bond a ja: Me ake tsammani?
Kasuwannin lamuni na duniya sun ragu zuwa mafi ƙanƙanta matakan tun aƙalla 1990, yayin da masu zuba jari ke sa ran bankunan tsakiya za su ƙara yawan kuɗin ruwa da sauri a fuskantar hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin shekaru da yawa.
Me ke faruwa?
Asarar kasuwar lamuni ta samo asali ne daga manyan bankunan tsakiya suna haɓaka ƙimar riba don magance hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Tsakanin shaidu da ƙimar riba, akwai dabarar lissafi. Yawan riba yana ƙaruwa lokacin da shaidu suka ragu kuma akasin haka.
Bayan hawan kudin ruwa a karon farko tun daga shekarar 2018, Shugaban Babban Bankin Tarayya Jay Powell ya yi nuni a ranar Litinin cewa babban bankin Amurka a shirye yake ya kara yin aiki da karfi idan an bukaci kiyaye farashin farashi.
Bayan da Fed Chair Powell's hawkish jawabai a ranar Litinin, St Louis Fed Shugaban Bullard ya jaddada fifikonsa ga FOMC don yin "mummuna" don ci gaba da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, yana mai cewa FOMC ba zai iya jira don magance matsalolin geopolitical ba.
Bonds tafi ja
Hasashen bayanin kula na shekaru 2 na Amurka, wanda ke da matuƙar rauni ga hasashen ƙarancin riba, ya karu na shekaru uku da kashi 2.2 cikin ɗari a wannan makon, daga 0.73% a buɗewar shekara. Yawan amfanin ƙasa a cikin Baitul malin shekaru biyu yana kan hanyar da za ta yi tsalle mafi girma a cikin kwata tun 1984.
Hakanan farashin dogon lokaci ya tashi, kodayake a hankali, saboda hauhawar tsammanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, yana kawar da roƙon mallakar takaddun shaida waɗanda ke ba da tushen samun kudin shiga na gaba mai zuwa.
A ranar Laraba, yawan amfanin ƙasa na shekaru 10 a Amurka ya kai 2.42 %, matakinsa mafi girma tun daga watan Mayun 2019. Lamuni a Turai sun biyo baya, har ma da lamunin gwamnati a Japan, inda hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ragu, kuma ana sa ran babban bankin zai bijirewa Hankali na duniya tsarin, sun rasa ƙasa a wannan shekara.
BoE da ECB sun shiga tseren
Kasuwanni yanzu sun yi hasashen karin farashin aƙalla bakwai a Amurka a wannan shekara. Bugu da kari, Bankin Ingila ya kara yawan kudin ruwa a karo na uku a wannan watan, kuma farashin rance na gajeren lokaci na iya tashi sama da kashi 2% a karshen shekarar 2022.
A taronsa na baya-bayan nan, Babban Bankin Turai ya ba da sanarwar rugujewar shirin sa na sayen lamuni cikin sauri fiye da yadda ake tsammani. Sakon sa na katsalandan na zuwa ne yayin da masu tsara manufofin ke mayar da hankali kan hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, duk da cewa yakin da ake yi a Ukraine ya fi cutar da yankin Euro fiye da sauran tattalin arzikin duniya.
Me ake nufi da kasuwar hannun jari?
Haɗin kuɗin ruwa yanzu yana fitowa daga ƙananan ƙananan matakan, kuma kasuwannin hannayen jari na Amurka da alama sun gamsu da farashin kasuwa na yanzu na hauhawar farashin kuɗi bakwai kafin ƙarshen shekara, wanda ya kawo darajar Asusun Fed zuwa kusan 2%.
Duk da cewa kudaden da aka samu sun dawo da mafi yawan asarar da suka yi tun bayan mamayar da Rasha ta yi wa Ukraine, fitattun alkaluma irin su S&P 500 na ci gaba da faduwa a bana.
Final tunani
Tare da haɓakar tattalin arziƙin ya zama girgiza, ƙimar ƙimar Fed na iya iyakance. Baya ga gazawar makamashi da kayayyaki, da katsewar samar da kayayyaki, da kuma yaki a Turai, tattalin arzikin duniya yana tafiyar hawainiya yayin da Tarayyar Tarayya ke shirin fara rage ma'auni.
« Shin retracements daban-daban da revers? Shin muna kan hanyar koma bayan tattalin arziki? Me ake jira a cikin watanni masu zuwa? »
