A yayin da MPC na Bankin Ingila ya hadu don tattaunawa tare da sanar da yawan kudin ruwa na Burtaniya, manazarta sun fara tambayar “yaushe ne karuwar da ba makawa za ta faru?”
A ranar Alhamis 8 ga Fabrairu, da karfe 12:00 na yamma agogon GMT (lokacin Burtaniya) babban bankin Burtaniya na bankin Ingila, zai bayyana shawararsu game da kudaden ruwa. A halin yanzu ƙimar tushe tana kan 0.5%, kuma akwai ɗan tsammanin haɓaka. BoE sun kuma tattauna sannan kuma sun bayyana shawararsu game da tsarin siyan kadarorin Burtaniya na yanzu (QE), a halin yanzu akan £435b, manazarta da Reuters da Bloomberg suka yi, suna tsammanin wannan matakin ba zai canza ba.
Da zarar an bayyana shawarar ƙimar riba, hankali zai koma ga labarin da ke tare da shawarar Bankin. Masu saka hannun jari da manazarta za su nemi jagorar jagora daga gwamnan BoE, game da manufofin kuɗin kuɗi na gaba. Matsayin hauhawar farashin Burtaniya a halin yanzu shine 3%, wanda shine kashi ɗaya cikin ɗari sama da manufa / wuri mai daɗi wanda BoE ke nufi a matsayin wani ɓangare na manufofin kuɗi. A wasu lokutan BoE na iya haɓaka rates don kwantar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Koyaya, ci gaban GDP a Burtaniya yana kan 1.5%, don haka haɓaka ƙimar na iya lalata irin wannan ci gaban da ba a kula da shi ba. Bugu da ƙari, haɓaka ƙimar yanzu na iya yin tasiri ga farashin kadari, a matsayin misali, yayin gwajin damuwa na baya-bayan nan da babban bankin ya gudanar, sun yanke shawarar cewa ƙimar tushe ta haura zuwa 3% na iya rage darajar kasuwar kadarorin London da Kudu maso Gabashin Ingila har zuwa. 30%.
MPC/BoE kuma za su ci gaba da mai da hankali kan manufofin kuɗi na Fed da ECB, manyan bankunan tsakiya biyu na manyan abokan ciniki na Burtaniya- Amurka da yankin Yuro. FOMC / Fed ya ninka sau biyu a cikin 2017 zuwa 1.5%, hasashen shine don ƙarin haɓaka uku a cikin 2018, don ɗaukar ƙimar zuwa 2.75%. ECB na iya haɓakawa, don kiyaye/ sarrafa darajar Yuro, da dalar Amurka. A zahiri waɗannan yanke shawara za a iya jinkirta su, idan kasuwar ãdalci ta yanzu selloff ya tabbatar da gyara na 10% ko fiye, daga kololuwar kwanan nan.
Hakanan ana kama BoE tsakanin dutse da wuri mai wuya, saboda yanayin Brexit. Mark Carney, gwamnan babban bankin kasa da abokan aikinsa a MPC (kwamitin manufofin kudi), sun sami kansu a cikin tsaka mai wuya. Ba wai kawai dole ne su gudanar da manufofin kuɗi ba yayin da suke magance matsalolin da aka saba da su tattalin arziki zai gabatar, kuma dole ne su kula da hankali da kuma cikakken tasirin da Brexit zai yi a kan tattalin arzikin Birtaniya, da zarar Birtaniya ta bar a cikin Maris 2019. Menene ana kiranta da "lokacin canji" na ciniki, daga Maris 2019, yanzu shekara guda kawai ya rage, alhakin gudanar da ficewar yanzu wani bangare ne na BoE, ba kawai gwamnatin Tory ba.
Dole ne yan kasuwa ba kawai su shirya kansu don yanke shawara na riba ba, har ma don taron manema labarai da duk wani labari da BoE ya gabatar. Idan shawarar ta kasance a riƙe a 0.5%, ba lallai ba ne ya fassara cewa Sterling zai kasance ba tare da motsi ba tare da takwarorinsa. Sterling ya fuskanci matsin lamba a farkon satin saboda kasuwancin daidaiton duniya da aka sayar, don haka kudin zai iya kula da duk wata sanarwa da bankin ya yi, ko Mark Carney.
LITTAFI MAI TSARKI na Burtaniya da suka danganci SAKI MAI TASIRI
• Kudin sha'awa kashi 0.5%.
• GDP na YoY 1.5%.
• Hauhawar farashi (CPI) 3%.
• Rashin aikin yi 4.3%.
• Girman albashi 2.5%.
• Bashin Gwamnati v GDP 89.3%.
• Hadadden PMI 54.9.
« Index na Dow Jones ya faɗi ƙasa da 24,000 na intraday, yayin da hannun jarin duniya ke sayarwa, stan wasa ya faɗi saboda Brexit da tsoron tattalin arziki Equididdigar Amurka ta murmure a ƙarshen ƙarshen ciniki, kasuwannin Turai sun faɗi, FX manyan nau'ikan kasuwanci nau'i-nau'i a cikin matsakaiciyar kewayo, matsayin mafaka na zinariya ya ɓace »
