Fabrairu 16 • Sharhin kasuwancin • Ra'ayoyin 4566 • Comments Off akan Ajiyar Banki 1 na Ajantina 0
Tsarin Banki na Argentina 1 0. Shin Ana Taushe Mu Don Tsohuwar Girki Mai Maye Da Rashin Tsari?
Abu ne mai ban sha'awa da ban tsoro a daidai ma'auni don kallon jijiyoyi da suka lalace yayin nuni yayin da muke kaiwa wasan ƙarshe na Girka kuma ƙarshen wasan ne kawai, ba ƙarshen kwanaki ba. Wataƙila ana wasa da Girka kawai azaman gwajin lab don babban gwajin gabaɗaya wanda shine yankin Yuro da kudin da aka raba. Wataƙila daga wannan gwaji, ikon siyasa da na banki na Turai za su iya tantance wani shiri ga sauran membobin da suka haɗa lambobin PIIGS masu banƙyama da daraja. Abin da ke da tabbas shi ne mun ƙare da misalan ban dariya "harba gwangwani a hanya" yanzu.
Da zarar kun gama "squashed, tsatsa gwangwani, tarko a cikin matattu karshen cul de sac" kwatankwacin kun san kun daina amfani da harsashi na misaltawa, kamar yadda troika, Eurogroup da 'yan siyasar Girka suka bayyana ba su da dabarun jinkirtawa, ko uzuri…
Kada mu kasance cikin tunanin cewa tsohowar Girka za ta zama fikinik, zai zama daidai da jahannama na tattalin arziki na tsawon shekaru, duk da haka, wannan yana ɗaukan zama a cikin Yuro tare da irin wannan riƙon shaƙewa ta hanyar troika da masu ba da lamuni masu zaman kansu zai zama haɓaka. Tuni matakan da aka kafa tun daga shekarar 2010/2011 suka yi wa kasar tabarbarewar tattalin arziki da kuma wadannan matakan, domin a ceto kasar Girka da masu ba da lamuni a kaikaice, su ne nau'in 'lite'. Siga biyu da uku, (siga na biyu shine na baya-bayan nan), zai sami sakamako mafi muni.
Amma za mu iya duban halin da ake ciki a yanzu kuma mu ga kyakkyawar fata ga Girka, shin muna da misalan manyan tattalin arzikin da suka gaza kuma 'dawo' daga matattu? Eh muna yi kuma ba mamaki ba a tattauna waɗannan misalan ba. "Kada mu ba wa ƙananan mutane ra'ayi cewa akwai haske a ƙarshen rami, kawai a sa su sanya hannu a cikin jini. "
Zai ɗauki sarari da yawa akan wannan shigarwar yanar gizon don tattauna Argentina da Indonesiya, gazawar su da saurin murmurewa, amma a matsayin misalai biyu na kwanan nan ya tabbatar da cewa akwai rayuwa bayan tsoho. Za mu ba da taƙaitaccen bayani game da Argentina tare da girmamawa musamman akan kamance da bambance-bambancen lambobi…
Akwai bambance-bambance a bayyane, Argentina ta 'defaulted' a cikin lokacin daga 1999-2002, babbar haɓakar duniya da ta zo bayan haka ita ce igiyar ruwa wacce ta ɗaga dukkan jiragen ruwa. Argentina tana da mulkin soja, ta sha fama da hauhawar farashin kaya a cikin 1990's, duk da haka daga kololuwa zuwa tasirin rashin daidaituwa ya kasance kusan shekaru uku. Yawancin 'yan kasar Girka za su ba da shawarar cewa tattalin arzikinsu ya kasance cikin wani yanayi na koma bayan tattalin arziki na tsawon shekaru biyar kuma ba za a iya sanya ma'aunin lokaci kan wahala tsakanin tsararraki da Girkawa za su iya sha ba sakamakon zama a cikin yankin Euro a karkashin yanayin da aka tsara a halin yanzu.
Duk da cewa ta kasance masoyin bankunan saka hannun jari da kuma Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya, a cikin 2001 Argentina ta yi fama da doguwar koma bayan tattalin arziki wanda ya kai ga gwamnati ta dakatar da biyan basussuka ga masu lamuni masu zaman kansu; kasala a kan wasu dalar Amurka biliyan 95 na bashin gwamnati, kasala mafi girma a tarihi.
Matsakaicin kima da kima da kima da kuma yawan bashin kasashen waje sune musabbabin farko na rikicin Argentina. Rashin daidaituwar ciniki mara kyau da tsadar kudin gida ya haifar ya sa kasar ta kasa samun kudaden ajiyar waje da ake bukata don biyan ribar bashin kasashen waje. Argentina ta ci gaba da rance don biyan riba, bashin ya girma, ya kai 50% na GDP a ƙarshen 2001. Argentina ba za ta iya ci gaba da lamuni don biyan wajibcinta ba, gwamnati ta ƙi amincewa da rage darajar peso, ta watsar da tsohon daidaito tare da dalar Amurka a ciki. Janairu 2002. Wannan matakin ya rufe Argentina daga kasuwannin duniya yana raguwar zuba jari a cikin ƙasar, tare da masu ba da lamuni da yawa suna shigar da ƙarar gwamnati a gaban kotu. A ƙarshe, gwamnati ta kulla yarjejeniya a cikin 2005 don mayar da kusan kashi 75% na masu bashi a cikin wani ragi mai zurfi na 30%.
A cikin watan Yuni 2010, Argentina ta yi ƙoƙari ta sake fasalin abin da ya rage na bashin tare da irin wannan yanayi a cikin 2005. Wannan bashin bashi yana da adadin shiga kusan 70%, wanda, ya kara da sake fasalin baya, ya kai ga matakin 90%. . Domin samun cikakkiyar dama ga kasuwannin babban birnin kasar, Argentina na bukatar biyan bashin da take bin kasashen Paris Club kusan dalar Amurka biliyan 7.5. A ranar 15 ga Nuwamba, shugaban kasar Fernandez ya sanar da cewa gwamnatin Argentina da kungiyar Paris Club sun cimma yarjejeniya don fara tattaunawa kan basussukan, bisa sharadin da Argentina ta gabatar da kuma kungiyar Paris Club ta amince da cewa ba za a shiga tsakani ko gaban IMF ba. a cikin tsari.
A taƙaice rashin nasarar Argentina, bayan da ta yi fama da matsananciyar matsalar tattalin arziki, ta haifar da tarzoma a cikin al'umma kuma ta shiga banki. Ya gabatar da masu ba da lamuni da tayin ɗauka-ko-bar-shi na cent 35 akan dala. Sun yi la'akari da wannan ba'a: a baya, ƙasashe masu laifi sun biya 50-60 cents. Amma gwamnati ta tsaya tsayin daka kuma kusan kashi uku cikin hudu na masu hannun jari sun shiga cikin musayar bashi a 2005. More sun shiga cikin 2010, wanda ya kawo jimlar zuwa 93%.
Tattalin arzikin Argentina shine na uku mafi girma a Latin Amurka, tare da ingantaccen rayuwa da GDP ga kowane mutum. Tattalin arzikin mai matsakaicin matsakaici, Argentina tana da tushe mai ƙarfi don haɓaka gaba don girman kasuwarta, matakan saka hannun jari kai tsaye na ketare, da kuma yawan abubuwan da ake fitarwa na fasaha a matsayin rabon jimillar kayayyakin da aka kera. Kasar na cin gajiyar albarkatun kasa, da yawan jama'a masu ilimi, fannin noma mai dogaro da kai zuwa kasashen waje da kuma masana'antu iri-iri.
- GDP $435.2 biliyan (na sani, 2011)
- $710.7 biliyan (PPP) (21st, 2011)
- Ci gaban GDP 9.2% (2011)
- GDP ga kowane mutum $10,640 (na sani, 2011)
- $17,376 (PPP) (51st, 2011)
Market Overview
Matsakaicin daidaito ya ragu, kudin Euro ya yi rauni a rana ta biyar kuma kayayyaki sun ragu yayin da shugabannin Turai ke ci gaba da samun rarrabuwar kawuna kan ceton Girka, kuma hukumar masu saka hannun jari ta Moody's ta ce hakan na iya rage darajar bankunan duniya. Kudin inshorar basussukan gwamnati ya karu zuwa wata guda.
Ƙididdigar Ƙasa ta Duniya ta MSCI ta ragu da kashi 0.7 a 10:05 na safe a London. A Stoxx Turai 600 Index ya fadi da kashi 0.8 bisa dari, wanda bankuna ke jagoranta, kuma Standard & Poor's 500 Index na gaba ya yi asarar kashi 0.4 cikin dari. Yuro ya ƙi zuwa ƙasa da dala 1.30 a karon farko tun daga ranar 25 ga watan Janairu da kuma lamunin shekaru 10 na Sipaniya ya ragu a rana ta uku, abin da ya samar da maki 11 mafi girma.
Societe Generale SA ya nutse da kashi 3.4 bisa dari a birnin Paris bayan da bankin na biyu mafi girma a Faransa ya ce ribar kashi hudu cikin dari ta ragu da kashi 89 cikin dari yayin da bankin zuba jari ya yi hasarar farko cikin shekaru biyu.
Hoton Kasuwa da karfe 11:00 na safe agogon GMT (agogon Ingila)
Kasuwannin Asiya Pasifik sun sha wahala a faɗuwar faɗuwa a cikin daren safiya, Nikkei ya rufe 0.24%, Hang Seng ya rufe 0.41%, CSI ya rufe 0.53% kuma ASX 200 ya rufe babban 1.68%. Fihirisar bourse na Turai sun ragu a zaman safiya. STOXX 50 ya ragu da 0.89%, FTSE ya ragu 0.59%, CAC ya ragu da 0.41% da DAX ƙasa 0.94%. ASX ya ragu da kashi 1.94%. Danyen mai na ICE Brent ya ragu dala $0.03 yayin da zinaren Comex ya ragu da dala 9.10. Ma'aunin ma'auni na SPX nan gaba ya ragu da kashi 0.35%.
Spot Lite
Yuro dai ya ragu na tsawon makonni uku idan aka kwatanta da dala yayin da aka raba shugabannin kasashen Turai kan ceto kasar Girka. Kudin kasashe 17 ya fadi a rana ta biyar sabanin koren kore kafin shugabannin Jamus da Italiya su hadu gobe gabanin taron ministocin kudi na mako mai zuwa don yanke shawara kan shirin ceto na biyu ga Girka. Dalar ta tashi ne bayan da Moody's Investors Service ta ce tana nazarin bankunan da suka hada da UBS AG da Credit Suisse Group AG don yuwuwar rage darajar.
Yuro ya ragu da kashi 0.5 zuwa dala 1.2998 da karfe 9:11 na safe a birnin Landan bayan da ya zarce zuwa dala 1.2983, matakin mafi karanci tun daga ranar 25 ga watan Janairu. Dala ta samu kashi 0.1 zuwa yen 102.40.
Girkashirin ceton Girka
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Argentina 1 Tsarin Banki 0
Fabrairu 16 • Sharhin kasuwancin • Ra'ayoyin 4566 • Comments Off akan Ajiyar Banki 1 na Ajantina 0
Tsarin Banki na Argentina 1 0. Shin Ana Taushe Mu Don Tsohuwar Girki Mai Maye Da Rashin Tsari?
Abu ne mai ban sha'awa da ban tsoro a daidai ma'auni don kallon jijiyoyi da suka lalace yayin nuni yayin da muke kaiwa wasan ƙarshe na Girka kuma ƙarshen wasan ne kawai, ba ƙarshen kwanaki ba. Wataƙila ana wasa da Girka kawai azaman gwajin lab don babban gwajin gabaɗaya wanda shine yankin Yuro da kudin da aka raba. Wataƙila daga wannan gwaji, ikon siyasa da na banki na Turai za su iya tantance wani shiri ga sauran membobin da suka haɗa lambobin PIIGS masu banƙyama da daraja. Abin da ke da tabbas shi ne mun ƙare da misalan ban dariya "harba gwangwani a hanya" yanzu.
Da zarar kun gama "squashed, tsatsa gwangwani, tarko a cikin matattu karshen cul de sac" kwatankwacin kun san kun daina amfani da harsashi na misaltawa, kamar yadda troika, Eurogroup da 'yan siyasar Girka suka bayyana ba su da dabarun jinkirtawa, ko uzuri…
Kada mu kasance cikin tunanin cewa tsohowar Girka za ta zama fikinik, zai zama daidai da jahannama na tattalin arziki na tsawon shekaru, duk da haka, wannan yana ɗaukan zama a cikin Yuro tare da irin wannan riƙon shaƙewa ta hanyar troika da masu ba da lamuni masu zaman kansu zai zama haɓaka. Tuni matakan da aka kafa tun daga shekarar 2010/2011 suka yi wa kasar tabarbarewar tattalin arziki da kuma wadannan matakan, domin a ceto kasar Girka da masu ba da lamuni a kaikaice, su ne nau'in 'lite'. Siga biyu da uku, (siga na biyu shine na baya-bayan nan), zai sami sakamako mafi muni.
Amma za mu iya duban halin da ake ciki a yanzu kuma mu ga kyakkyawar fata ga Girka, shin muna da misalan manyan tattalin arzikin da suka gaza kuma 'dawo' daga matattu? Eh muna yi kuma ba mamaki ba a tattauna waɗannan misalan ba. "Kada mu ba wa ƙananan mutane ra'ayi cewa akwai haske a ƙarshen rami, kawai a sa su sanya hannu a cikin jini. "
Zai ɗauki sarari da yawa akan wannan shigarwar yanar gizon don tattauna Argentina da Indonesiya, gazawar su da saurin murmurewa, amma a matsayin misalai biyu na kwanan nan ya tabbatar da cewa akwai rayuwa bayan tsoho. Za mu ba da taƙaitaccen bayani game da Argentina tare da girmamawa musamman akan kamance da bambance-bambancen lambobi…
Akwai bambance-bambance a bayyane, Argentina ta 'defaulted' a cikin lokacin daga 1999-2002, babbar haɓakar duniya da ta zo bayan haka ita ce igiyar ruwa wacce ta ɗaga dukkan jiragen ruwa. Argentina tana da mulkin soja, ta sha fama da hauhawar farashin kaya a cikin 1990's, duk da haka daga kololuwa zuwa tasirin rashin daidaituwa ya kasance kusan shekaru uku. Yawancin 'yan kasar Girka za su ba da shawarar cewa tattalin arzikinsu ya kasance cikin wani yanayi na koma bayan tattalin arziki na tsawon shekaru biyar kuma ba za a iya sanya ma'aunin lokaci kan wahala tsakanin tsararraki da Girkawa za su iya sha ba sakamakon zama a cikin yankin Euro a karkashin yanayin da aka tsara a halin yanzu.
Duk da cewa ta kasance masoyin bankunan saka hannun jari da kuma Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya, a cikin 2001 Argentina ta yi fama da doguwar koma bayan tattalin arziki wanda ya kai ga gwamnati ta dakatar da biyan basussuka ga masu lamuni masu zaman kansu; kasala a kan wasu dalar Amurka biliyan 95 na bashin gwamnati, kasala mafi girma a tarihi.
Matsakaicin kima da kima da kima da kuma yawan bashin kasashen waje sune musabbabin farko na rikicin Argentina. Rashin daidaituwar ciniki mara kyau da tsadar kudin gida ya haifar ya sa kasar ta kasa samun kudaden ajiyar waje da ake bukata don biyan ribar bashin kasashen waje. Argentina ta ci gaba da rance don biyan riba, bashin ya girma, ya kai 50% na GDP a ƙarshen 2001. Argentina ba za ta iya ci gaba da lamuni don biyan wajibcinta ba, gwamnati ta ƙi amincewa da rage darajar peso, ta watsar da tsohon daidaito tare da dalar Amurka a ciki. Janairu 2002. Wannan matakin ya rufe Argentina daga kasuwannin duniya yana raguwar zuba jari a cikin ƙasar, tare da masu ba da lamuni da yawa suna shigar da ƙarar gwamnati a gaban kotu. A ƙarshe, gwamnati ta kulla yarjejeniya a cikin 2005 don mayar da kusan kashi 75% na masu bashi a cikin wani ragi mai zurfi na 30%.
A cikin watan Yuni 2010, Argentina ta yi ƙoƙari ta sake fasalin abin da ya rage na bashin tare da irin wannan yanayi a cikin 2005. Wannan bashin bashi yana da adadin shiga kusan 70%, wanda, ya kara da sake fasalin baya, ya kai ga matakin 90%. . Domin samun cikakkiyar dama ga kasuwannin babban birnin kasar, Argentina na bukatar biyan bashin da take bin kasashen Paris Club kusan dalar Amurka biliyan 7.5. A ranar 15 ga Nuwamba, shugaban kasar Fernandez ya sanar da cewa gwamnatin Argentina da kungiyar Paris Club sun cimma yarjejeniya don fara tattaunawa kan basussukan, bisa sharadin da Argentina ta gabatar da kuma kungiyar Paris Club ta amince da cewa ba za a shiga tsakani ko gaban IMF ba. a cikin tsari.
A taƙaice rashin nasarar Argentina, bayan da ta yi fama da matsananciyar matsalar tattalin arziki, ta haifar da tarzoma a cikin al'umma kuma ta shiga banki. Ya gabatar da masu ba da lamuni da tayin ɗauka-ko-bar-shi na cent 35 akan dala. Sun yi la'akari da wannan ba'a: a baya, ƙasashe masu laifi sun biya 50-60 cents. Amma gwamnati ta tsaya tsayin daka kuma kusan kashi uku cikin hudu na masu hannun jari sun shiga cikin musayar bashi a 2005. More sun shiga cikin 2010, wanda ya kawo jimlar zuwa 93%.
Tattalin arzikin Argentina shine na uku mafi girma a Latin Amurka, tare da ingantaccen rayuwa da GDP ga kowane mutum. Tattalin arzikin mai matsakaicin matsakaici, Argentina tana da tushe mai ƙarfi don haɓaka gaba don girman kasuwarta, matakan saka hannun jari kai tsaye na ketare, da kuma yawan abubuwan da ake fitarwa na fasaha a matsayin rabon jimillar kayayyakin da aka kera. Kasar na cin gajiyar albarkatun kasa, da yawan jama'a masu ilimi, fannin noma mai dogaro da kai zuwa kasashen waje da kuma masana'antu iri-iri.
Market Overview
Matsakaicin daidaito ya ragu, kudin Euro ya yi rauni a rana ta biyar kuma kayayyaki sun ragu yayin da shugabannin Turai ke ci gaba da samun rarrabuwar kawuna kan ceton Girka, kuma hukumar masu saka hannun jari ta Moody's ta ce hakan na iya rage darajar bankunan duniya. Kudin inshorar basussukan gwamnati ya karu zuwa wata guda.
Ƙididdigar Ƙasa ta Duniya ta MSCI ta ragu da kashi 0.7 a 10:05 na safe a London. A Stoxx Turai 600 Index ya fadi da kashi 0.8 bisa dari, wanda bankuna ke jagoranta, kuma Standard & Poor's 500 Index na gaba ya yi asarar kashi 0.4 cikin dari. Yuro ya ƙi zuwa ƙasa da dala 1.30 a karon farko tun daga ranar 25 ga watan Janairu da kuma lamunin shekaru 10 na Sipaniya ya ragu a rana ta uku, abin da ya samar da maki 11 mafi girma.
Societe Generale SA ya nutse da kashi 3.4 bisa dari a birnin Paris bayan da bankin na biyu mafi girma a Faransa ya ce ribar kashi hudu cikin dari ta ragu da kashi 89 cikin dari yayin da bankin zuba jari ya yi hasarar farko cikin shekaru biyu.
Hoton Kasuwa da karfe 11:00 na safe agogon GMT (agogon Ingila)
Kasuwannin Asiya Pasifik sun sha wahala a faɗuwar faɗuwa a cikin daren safiya, Nikkei ya rufe 0.24%, Hang Seng ya rufe 0.41%, CSI ya rufe 0.53% kuma ASX 200 ya rufe babban 1.68%. Fihirisar bourse na Turai sun ragu a zaman safiya. STOXX 50 ya ragu da 0.89%, FTSE ya ragu 0.59%, CAC ya ragu da 0.41% da DAX ƙasa 0.94%. ASX ya ragu da kashi 1.94%. Danyen mai na ICE Brent ya ragu dala $0.03 yayin da zinaren Comex ya ragu da dala 9.10. Ma'aunin ma'auni na SPX nan gaba ya ragu da kashi 0.35%.
Spot Lite
Yuro dai ya ragu na tsawon makonni uku idan aka kwatanta da dala yayin da aka raba shugabannin kasashen Turai kan ceto kasar Girka. Kudin kasashe 17 ya fadi a rana ta biyar sabanin koren kore kafin shugabannin Jamus da Italiya su hadu gobe gabanin taron ministocin kudi na mako mai zuwa don yanke shawara kan shirin ceto na biyu ga Girka. Dalar ta tashi ne bayan da Moody's Investors Service ta ce tana nazarin bankunan da suka hada da UBS AG da Credit Suisse Group AG don yuwuwar rage darajar.
Yuro ya ragu da kashi 0.5 zuwa dala 1.2998 da karfe 9:11 na safe a birnin Landan bayan da ya zarce zuwa dala 1.2983, matakin mafi karanci tun daga ranar 25 ga watan Janairu. Dala ta samu kashi 0.1 zuwa yen 102.40.
Girkashirin ceton Girka
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