Athbhreithniú Margaidh 26 Meitheamh 2012
A pair of manufacturing surveys were released today in the US. The Chicago National Activity Index for May showed that conditions had deteriorated somewhat, while the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey for June showed an improvement in conditions. After the Philly Fed’s surprising collapse in June, we’ll be watching the other regional Fed surveys especially closely. The Richmond Fed survey for June will be released tomorrow.
US new home sales advanced fairly strongly in May, with the annual rate of sales increasing to 369k from 343k in April, significantly higher than anticipated (the consensus among economists polled by Bloomberg was for an outcome of 346k) . The gains were driven by sales in the Sun Belt. Both median and mean new home prices fell (-0.6% m/m and -3.5% m/m respectively) although both are trending positively in the more medium term at -5% y/y.
Germany will release consumer confidence data tomorrow along with France. Manufacturing sector surveys from both countries have trended fairly weak for the past two months, so it will be interesting to see how forward looking indicators of consumption are faring. Both surveys will be up to the minute, with the French survey covering the June period while the German survey focuses on expectations for July. Italy will release retail sales data for April as well.
The UK’s budget balance for May will be released, and forecasters polled by Bloomberg are expecting net public sector borrowing of GBP14bn during May. That would put net borrowing at GBP10.7bn for the year.
News flow is expected to pick up as the EU Summit draws near and the Finance Ministers all like getting their own view points out. In a surprise, the newly appointed Greek Finance Minister has resigned after 1 week in office.
Dollar Euro:
EURUSD (1.2507. XNUMX) the pair is bouncing between small gains and losses ahead of the EU Summit, the outlook for the euro is negative. With Spain and Cyprus both summiting official requests for financial assistance. The euro is expected to trade below the 1.24 level. Although no actual results are expected from the EU Summit with investors writing off the outcome, there should be a lot of news.
Punt Mór na Breataine
GBPUSD (1.5580. XNUMX) Sterling added a few pips to recover its small losses yesterday on the DX increase of the USD. There was little in the way of eco data on either side of the Atlantic. Today’s give us the UK budget reports.
Airgeadra Áiseach - Ábhartha
USDJPY (79.62) In a surprise move, the USD lost some of its momentum against the yen, falling from 80.33, with Japan, dealing with their new tax issues as the government votes today on what is critical for the economy and the yen. The BoJ will respond to the governments outcome.
óir
Óir (1584.75) ag lorg treorach arís, roimh Chruinniú Mullaigh an AE agus ag deireadh na míosa eisíonn sonraí scaoileadh ór ag preabadh idir gnóthachain bheaga agus caillteanais, cé go bhfuiltear ag súil go bhfillfidh sé ar an treocht anuas roimhe seo go 1520 nuair a shocróidh an AE síos.
Amhola
Amhola (79.77) leanann sé ar aghaidh ag trádáil ar an taobh diúltach, de réir mar a bhíonn meastacháin táirgeachta ag ardú agus ag titim san éileamh, tá rósholáthar amhola ar fud an domhain ag an am seo. Meastar go bhfanfaidh an t-ór dubh sa chríoch seo ar feadh na 30-60 lá atá le teacht agus aon suaitheadh polaitiúil ann.
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