Tendenca analizo por la semajno komenciĝanta la 23an de marto
Nia semajna tendenca / svinga komerca analizo konsistas el du partoj; unue ni analizas la fundamentajn politikajn decidojn kaj novaĵojn pri la venonta semajno. Due ni uzas teknikan analizon provante determini iujn ajn eblajn komercajn ŝancojn. Komercistoj legantaj niajn ŝlosilajn kalendarajn eventojn por la semajno devas rimarki la antaŭdirojn, ĉar ia devio de tiu antaŭdirita de la enketitaj ekonomikistoj povas rezultigi gravajn valutajn parajn movadojn, depende de la konsekvencaj ŝanĝoj de sento kaŭzitaj se la datumoj venas supre, aŭ sub atendoj.
The week begins Monday with a raft of PMIs, the first beginning with the HSBC China flash manufacturing PMI excepted to come in at 48.7. Europe’s flash manufacturing PMI is predicted to come in at 55.3, with services PMI anticipated to come in at 52.6. French flash services PMI is expected to print at 47.9. Germany’s flash manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 55.8, Germany’s flash services PMI is anticipated to come in at 55.8. Germany’s central bank publishes its BUBA report. Later in the afternoon the flash manufacturing PMI for the USA is published.
Mardo sees China’s conference board LEI published, later the RBA governor Lowe speaks, in the UK the Nationwide house price index is published, the German IFO business climate index is published, with an expected reading of 110.9. The UK’s CPI is published expected in at 1.7% year on year. The BBA mortgage approvals are predicted to come in at 50K for the last month. PPI for the UK is predicted to come in at 0.4% for the month, with RPI expected in at 2.7% year on year. HPI, house price inflation, is predicted to have increased by 5.7% year on year according to the ONS.
La komerca ekvilibro de Eŭropo antaŭvideblas je 13.9 miliardoj da eŭroj pozitiva por la monato. Brita CBI rimarkis, ke vendoj eniros 30. De Usono estas eldonita la indekso de domoj Case Shilller, atendata je 13.3% jare, kun HPI monate monate antaŭ 0.7%. La konfido de konsumanto en Usono atendas presi je 78.7. Novaj hejmaj vendoj atendas 447K. La indico pri fabrikado de Richmond estas antaŭvidita je -1. Vicguberniestro de la RBA Lowe parolas. Poste FOMC Plosser parolas.
Merkredo sees the RBA financial stability report published and the RBA Governor Stevens speaks. From Europe we receive the GFK German consumer confidence reading predicted to come in at 8.5. Italian retail sales are expected in at 0.4% up on the month. Core durable goods orders in the USA are expected to come in at 0.3% with durable goods orders predicted in up 1.1% month on month. Flash services PMI for the USA is predicted in at 54.2. The USA also publishes the results of the banking stress tests. The New Zealand trade balance is expected to come in at a positive $600 ml for the month.
Ĵaŭdo witnesses the private loans data for Europe published expected in at 2.1% down. Retail sales for the UK are expected to come in at 0.5% up for the month, weekly unemployment claims in the USA are predicted in at 326K. FOMC member Pianalto speaks whilst the USA final GDP is published, expected in at 2.7% quarter on quarter. Pending home sales in the USA are anticipated to come in at 0.2% up on the month.
Household spending in Japan is anticipated to have risen by 0.3%, core Tokyo CPI by 0.9% with national core CPI by 1.9%. Unemployment in Japan is expected to print at 3.7% with retail sales in Japan expected to have improved by 3.6% year on year.
Vendredo German CPI is anticipated to come in at 0.4% with import prices at 0.3%. The UK current account is expected to print at -$13.5 bn. Final GDP is expected to come in at 0.7% for the quarter. Index of services for the quarter in the UK is predicted to come in at 0.6%.
Personaj elspezaj detaloj estas publikigitaj en Usono, atendataj je 0.3% monate post monate kun personaj enspezoj je 0.4% monate monate. La reviziita indekso pri konsumantoj de la universitato de Miĉigano estas publikigita atendita eniri 80.6.
Teknika analizo detaligante eblajn komercojn pri pluraj ĉefaj valutaj paroj, indeksoj kaj varoj
Nia svinga / tendenca komerca te analysisnika analizo konsistas el la jenaj indikiloj, kiuj ĉiuj restas en sia norma agordo, escepte de la stokastaj linioj, kiuj estas ĝustigitaj al 10, 10, 5 por provi "diski" falsajn legaĵojn. Nia tuta analizo estas farita nur laŭ la ĉiutaga tempokadro. Ni uzas: PSAR, Bollinger-bandojn, DMI, MACD, ADX, RSI kaj la stokastikojn. Ni ankaŭ uzas la ŝlosilajn movajn mezumojn de: 21, 50, 100, 200. Ni serĉas ŝlosilajn prezajn agadajn evoluojn kaj observas ŝlosilajn tenilojn / minacantajn rondajn nombrojn kaj psiko-nivelojn. Por la ĉiutagaj trinkejoj oni preferas la metodon Heikin Ashi.
EUR / USD finally broke to the downside on March 20th. Currently the price action is bearish, the last two HA daily candles are full bodied, closed with downward shadows; price has breached the lower Bollinger band, but is above the 200, 50 and 100 SMAs. The DMI is positive, but making lower highs, whilst the MACD is negative and making lower lows. PSAR is above price, RSI is at 49 with the ADX at 22. The stochastic lines have crossed and have exited the overbought territory. Traders short would be advised to stay so until several of the afore-mentioned indicators have reversed trend. Traders may wish to add to their positions should price approach the 200 SMA, above the critical round number of 13400.
AUD / USD broke to the upside on March 5th since which time the security has behaved in a volatile manner when judged on the daily time frame. However, the trend has remained bullish with PSAR below price, price breaching the main SMAs with the exception of the 200 SMA. Price had breached the upper Bollinger, but has now retraced back to the middle Bollinger. Friday’s HA candle was inconclusive taking on a similar appearance to a classic doji candle. Currently, when observed on the histogram visual, both the MACD and DMI are positive and making higher highs, the stochastic lines have yet to cross but are short of the overbought zone. The RSI is at 57 with the ADX at 15. Traders long would be advised to stay so until several of the afore-mentioned indicators exhibit bearish tendencies. Traders looking to close could (as a minimum) look towards the PSAR appearing above price as a reason to close the long trades.
USD / JPY broke to the downside on March 12th; however, traders must be on alert that the chart pattern has all the appearance of a security coiled to break to the upside. Currently PSAR is above price, price is above the 200 SMA. Both the DMI and MACD are positive and making higher highs, price has breached the middle Bollinger band. The stochastic lines are short of both the overbought and oversold area and have crossed to the downside. RSI is at 49 and the ADX is at 15. Traders short would be advised to proceed with caution given the mixed signals the indicators and price action is exhibiting.
La DJIA broke to the upside in the last daily session of the preceding week. Currently the PSAR is below price and positive, both the MACD and DMI are positive and making higher highs. The stochastic lines have crossed to the downside early in the month and are yet to reverse given the suddenness of the break to the upside. The RSI is at 52 with the ADX at 11. Price has breached the middle Bollinger and is above all the key SMAs. Traders long would be advised to make good use of trailing stops via the use of the PSAR given the current unpredictable nature of the markets and their inextricable link to the geo political tensions in the Ukraine area.
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