ISITHOMBE SEMAKHI ESIVIKIWEYO 11 / 12-15 / 12 | Amabhange aphakathi agxila kakhulu kuleli sonto elizayo njengoba i-FOMC, i-ECB ne-BoE bonke beveza izinqumo zabo zakamuva zokubeka amazinga
Njengoba singena emasontweni okugcina onyakeni wokuhweba, amabhange amathathu ahola phambili azodalula izinqumo zawo zokugcina zango-2017, kumazinga enzalo nezinye izindaba zenqubomgomo yezimali, ngesonto elizayo. Womabili amabhange aseYurophu; i-ECB neBhange laseNgilandi kulindeleke ukuthi zigcine amanani entengo emisiwe; Ibhange lase-UK ngo-0.5% kanye ne-ECB ku-zero, yize abatshalizimali bezogxila kunoma yikuphi ukulandisa okuhambisana nalokhu noma ukukhishwa kwabezindaba, ukuthola izinkomba zokuphathwa kwesikhathi esizayo ku-2018.
Kodwa-ke, i-FOMC, eyikomidi elihlanganisa zonke izihlalo zezifunda zeFederal Reserve, kulindeleke ukuthi imemezele ukukhuphuka kwamazinga enzalo ekupheleni komhlangano wabo wezinsuku ezimbili ngoLwesithathu ngo-19: 00 pm GMT ngesonto elizayo. Izinga lamanje liyi-1.25% futhi umbono ojwayelekile wokuvumelana, ovela kosomnotho abavotelwe yi-ejensi yezindaba zeBloomberg neReuters, ukhuphukela ku-1.5%. Lokhu kukhuphuka kuzoqedela ukuzibophezela okwenziwe ngusihlalo weFed kanye neFOMC ekuqaleni konyaka; ukukhuphula inzalo ukukhuphuka okuthathu phakathi nonyaka.
Ngokwemvelo kuzogxilwa engqungqutheleni yabezindaba ebiqhutshwa nguJanet Yellen, manje osengusihlalo ophumayo weFed, ozothathwa nguMnu Jerome Powell ngoFebhuwari Wonyaka Omusha. Mayelana nokuthi le yinkulumo yakhe yokugcina ye-FOMC nokuthi uzokwethula izinkomba, maqondana ne-hawkish noma inqubomgomo ye-dovish, kunzima ukukuqagela, ngoba uNkk. Yellen angakhetha ukushiya lokho esikhundleni sakhe. Kodwa-ke, uma kwenzeka ukuphakama, kulandelwa isitatimende se-hawkish esikisela ukuqhubeka nokuqiniswa kwenqubomgomo yezezimali ku-2018, idola laseMelika lingahlangabezana nokunyakaza okuningi ngoLwesithathu.
Sunday iqala isonto ngochungechunge lokukhishwa kwedatha kusuka eChina, okuvelele kakhulu okuyimali yemalimboleko emisha ekhishwe ngoNovemba, isibikezelo sokwenyuka, sibe ngu-825b sisuka ku-663b yuan.
UMsombuluko wusuku oluthule ngokwedlulele lomthelela omkhulu kwezomnotho, okumaphakathi ukuya phezulu, izindaba zekhalenda Ama-oda wamathuluzi omshini waseJapan angaletha ukuqonda ekukhuleni okuqhubekayo kwezwe; uma izwe liqhubeka nokusebenzela amathuluzi okusebenza, khona-ke ithemba lokukhiqiza liyakhula. Izinga lamadiphozithi ohlelweni lwebhange laseSwitzerland lizovezwa. Kamuva osukwini izinombolo zase-USA JOLTS zingaletha ukusikisela maqondana namandla eminye imininingwane yemisebenzi, njengezinombolo zakamuva ze-NFP, ezishicilelwe ngokuhamba kwesonto.
NgoLwesibili iqala ngemininingwane yase-Australia maqondana: nezimo zebhizinisi zizonke, ukuthengwa kwamanani ezindlu nokubolekwa kwamakhadi esikweletu. Inkomba ephakeme yaseJapan nayo iyashicilelwa. Ngemuva kwezimakethe zase-Europe kuzogxilwa kakhulu ezibalweni zakamuva ze-inflation zase-UK, kuzodalulwa isihlenga okubandakanya: ukukhula kwamaholo, intengo yamanani okuthengisa njll. Isibalo se-CPI njengamanje sikuma-3%, okulindelwe ukuthi lesi sibalo sizogcinwa. Ukwehla kwamandla emali ezindlini e-UK kulindeleke ukuthi kungene cishe ku-5.4% olethwe ngoSepthemba. Ukuhlolwa okuhlukahlukene kwe-ZEW kweJalimane ne-Eurozone kulethwa esimisweni sokuhweba sasekuseni; okulindelwe ngoDisemba kweJalimane nesimo samanje se-EZ kubhekwe kakhulu.
Njengoba izimakethe zase-US zivula isihlenga semininingwane yase-USA PPI kwembulwa, okugqame kakhulu okuyisibalo somkhiqizi wokugcina odinga i-YoY. Isibalo sesabelomali sanyanga zonke e-USA siyasilethwa, njengamamethrikhi afanayo i-USA iba nokushoda unomphela, ukushiyeka kuka-Okthoba kwaba ngu- $ 63.2b, kulindelwe okuncane noma akukho okulindelekile.
Ukugxila kubuyela e-Australia kusihlwa; Umbusi weRBA uLowe wethula inkulumo eSydney, ngenkathi kushicilelwa ukufundwa kwabathengi ngokuzithemba. Usuku luvalwa ngemininingwane yaseJapan kuma-oda emishini, nyangazonke nonyaka futhi ngazo zombili izibalo zihamba kabi ngo-Okthoba kuzofunwa intuthuko, ukukhombisa ukuthi umkhakha wezokukhiqiza waseJapan unamandla futhi uzinzile.
On NgoLwesithathu kugxilwe ekukhishweni kwedatha yaseYurophu ngesikhathi seseshini yaseYurophu; I-CPI yaseJalimane kufanele ihlale cishe ku-1.8% YoY, ngenkathi izibalo zokukhiqiza ezimbonini kanye nezibalo zokukhulisa ukuqashwa kwabantu e-Eurozone nazo zishicilelwa. I-UK ONS izoletha izibalo zayo zakamuva zemisebenzi nemininingwane ephathelene nokukhula kwamaholo. Ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi e-UK kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kuma-4.3%, ngokukhula kwamaholo ku-2.2% YoY.
Njengoba ukunakwa kwabatshalizimali kushintshela ezimakethe zase-USA, ukufundwa kwamanani entengo yabathengi kuvezwa phakathi kwemininingwane ethile yemali, i-CPI njengamanje iku-2% YoY, akukho ukulindela ushintsho. Isilinganiso semali etholwayo (yangempela) i-YoY kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale ku-0.4% okukhombisa ukuthi amaholo abasebenzi base-USA awakaguquki ngokwezimali zangempela unyaka wonke.
I-FOMC izoletha isimemezelo sayo sakamuva senzalo ngoLwesithathu kusihlwa, njengamanje ku-1.25%, umhlahlandlela odluliselwe okhishwe yiFed uphakamise ukuthi ukukhuphuka kuya ku-1.5% kucishe kuqiniseke. UJanet Yellen mhlawumbe uzokwethula ingqungquthela yakhe yokugcina yabezindaba ngemuva kokudalulwa kwesinqumo, okungaveza ukuthi i-FOMC noma izihlalo ezahlukahlukene zeFed, zingaba kanjani ngesikhathi sokuqala kuka-2018.
On NgoLwesine Iziphathimandla zase-Australia zishicilela izibalo zakamuva zokungasebenzi nokuqashwa, isibikezelo sokungasebenzi sihlale ku-5.4%. Amanani okuqashwa kwesikhashana kanye nokubamba iqhaza nawo ayashicilelwa. Izibalo eziningana zaseChina zishicilelwe, kufaka phakathi; ukuthengisa okuthengiswayo, okulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kuye ku-10.3% YoY, kanti isibikezelo sokukhula komkhiqizo wezimboni sizohlala ku-6.2% YoY.
Ama-PMI PMI ahlukahlukene aseJalimane nase-Eurozone ashicilelwa ngoLwesine njengoba izimakethe zaseYurophu zivuleka, ezivela e-UK sizothola izibalo zakamuva zokukhula kokuthengisa ngaphambi kokuba iBoE imemezele isinqumo sayo sakamuva senani lenzalo, kulindeleke ukuthi kubambeke okwamanje Isilinganiso esingu-0.5%. I-ECB nayo yenza isinqumo sayo sezinga ngalolo suku, ngesibikezelo sokuvumelana sokubanjwa kwesilinganiso samanje sika-zero. Kungekudala ngemuva kokudalulwa kwesinqumo sezinga, uMario Draghi, umongameli we-ECB, uzoba nesithangami nabezindaba eFrankfurt.
Njengoba izimakethe zase-US zivula izimangalo zokuqala ezingenamisebenzi ze-USA zizoshicilelwa, njengoba kuzongeniswa futhi kuthunyelwe kwamanye amazwe izinguquko zamanani nezinombolo zokuthengisa ezithuthukile. Uchungechunge lwamaMarkit PMIs omnotho wase-USA luzoshicilelwa, amamethrikhi ezimpahla ezisetshenziswayo azophetha ukukhishwa kwekhalenda lezomnotho lase-USA ngalolo suku.
Usuku luphela ngokushicilelwa kwesihlenga semininingwane yaseJapan; uchungechunge lweTankan emikhakheni eyahlukahlukene yokukhiqiza, kuhlanganiswe nemininingwane ekuqaleni kwesonto ephathelene nama-oda wemishini namathuluzi, kuzosiza ukukhombisa amandla emkhakheni wezokukhiqiza waseJapan.
On Friday, izibalo zebhalansi yokuhweba ezengeziwe zenyanga ka-Okthoba ku-Eurozone ziyakhishwa, ngaphambi kokuthi ukugxila kudlulele eNyakatho Melika. Izibalo zokuthengisa zokukhiqiza zaseCanada ziyashicilelwa, kanjalo nezibalo zakamuva zokuthengiswa kwasekhaya ezweni. Idatha yokukhiqiza umbuso wase-USA ngoDisemba iveziwe, kanjalo nezibalo zokukhiqiza zezimboni nezokukhiqiza. Isibalo se-Baker Hughes rig count singase sihlolisiswe ngokunikezwa kwezinqolobane zamafutha kunciphile futhi i-OPEC izibophezele ekunciphiseni ukuvikelwa.
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