Ama-Commentary e-Forex Market - Amafutha Ashaya irekhodi elisha le-Sterling

Amafutha Ashaya Umlando Omusha Ohloniphekile Ekwesabeni I-Iran

UFebhu 23 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-5087 • Amazwana Off kuma-Oil Hits I-New Sterling Record On Iran Yesaba

Uwoyela Ushaya Irekhodi Elisha Le-Sterling On Iran Fears..Kodwa sshhh..Ungatsheli Abashayeli Bezimoto base-UK

Feb 20, 2008 ngo-04:01pm e-New York:

“Intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-$100-a-barrel mark ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula, kodwa ngokokuqala ngqá ivaleke ngaphezu kophahla lwengqondo. Amanani afinyelele ku-$100.01 emgqonyeni we-New York Mercantile Exchange ngoLwesibili, kuyilapho ikusasa lifinyelela ku-$100.10 – inani eliphakeme kakhulu lentengo phakathi nosuku kusukela kwaqala ukuhweba ngo-1983. Ukungezwani kwezombusazwe kwakamuva phakathi kwe-US kanye nomhwebi kawoyela wesihlanu ngobukhulu emhlabeni, iVenezuela, kusolwe ngazo. enye yengcindezi yentengo ekhuphukayo. Ukucindezela okwengeziwe kuqhamuke kubaqageli ababhejayo ngokunciphisa okungenzeka kokukhiqizwa yiNhlangano Yamazwe Athumela Uphethroli (OPEC)”

I-'rubicon' yawela ngomhla ka-Feb 20, 2008, njengoba amazwibela ezindaba ngenhla akhomba ukuthi imakethe ye-WTI ibilokhu idlala ngothando ngo- $100 umgqomo, kodwa ngesikhathi sokuqala inani langempela lokuvala e-USA lalingaphezu kuka-$100. Kuyathakazelisa ukuqaphela ukuthi ukuqagela mayelana nokungezwani ne-Venezuela, umkhiqizi wempahla wesihlanu ngobukhulu ngaleso sikhathi, bekuyingxenye 'yenkulumo ephathelene nesiko lokusola' kanye ne-OPEC okungenzeka ibe nomkhawulo.

Ekuqaleni konke kubonakale kumsulwa futhi kuwubuwula, ngokuphambene kakhulu nomdlalo wobungozi odlalwa ne-Iran obangele ukwanda kwakamuva kwe-WTI kanye ne-Brent crude. Isimo sezepolitiki esiyinkimbinkimbi esibandakanya: I-Russia, i-China, i-Iran, i-USA, i-Israel, ukunikezwa kukawoyela kanye nenani lemali ethengwayo kawoyela yiminyaka elula (ngokwebanga lezepolitiki) kusukela ezindabeni zokuhlinzekwa kwe-OPEC kanye ne-USA engqubuzana nayo. umongameli Chavez ngokwenqaba ukuba yizwe lamakhasimende. Kodwa-ke njengoba intengo iqhubeka nokukhuphuka ngo-2008 ngoJulayi enye izinkulumo ezijwayeleke kakhulu neziyingozi zaqala ukusakazwa esizindeni somphakathi.

I-Guardian, ngoMgqibelo ziyi-12 kuJulayi 2008

“Amanani kawoyela anyukele kwirekhodi elisha lika-$147 umphongolo izolo ngenxa yokushuba kwesimo phakathi kwentshonalanga ne-Iran. I-Brent crude ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-$147.02 eLondon, kanti e-US i-sweet crude encane ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-$3 kuya ku-$146.90. I-Iran kuleli sonto ihlole imicibisholo ekwazi ukufika kwa-Israel, nokuholele ekutheni unobhala wezwe laseMelika uCondoleezza Rice axwayise ngokuthi iMelika izovikela abambisene nayo. I-Iran, umkhiqizi wesibili ngobukhulu enqoleni kawoyela i-Opec, iphendule ngokunye kwethulwa imicibisholo.

I-US noma i-Israel ayizange ikhiphe isiteleka samasosha e-Iran. Abahwebi besaba ukuthi izwe elikhiqiza uwoyela lingaziphindiselela ngokuvala iStrait of Hormuz, okudlula kuyo u-40% wezimoto ezihamba ngamathangi emhlabeni.”

Ukusetshenziswa Kawoyela Nokuhlinzekwa
Ukusetshenzwa kukawoyela emhlabeni wonke kwenyuka ngo-2010, okuhambisana nokuthambekela kweminyaka emibili edlule ngaphansi kwe-Great Recession, kukhuphula imiphongolo eyizigidi ezi-2.7 ngosuku kwaze kwaba nerekhodi elisha eliphakeme lemiphongolo eyizigidi ezingama-87.4 ngosuku (mpd). Kodwa-ke, ukwanda kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela emhlabeni wonke kwehle kwafinyelela kuleyo miphongolo eyi-900,000 ngosuku, ukukhuphuka kokukhiqizwa kawoyela bekungahambisani nesidingo esikhulayo. Isimangaliso wonke umuntu kusukela embuthweni wamasosha ase-US, kuya ku-IEA, kuya embonini kawoyela, kanye nenqwaba yabacwaningi bakawoyela abaphezulu 'ababi nobumnyama' (okungenzeka baqonde kangcono kunalabo abanethemba le-techno laphaya) bekade besho isikhathi eside.

Isidingo sikawoyela emhlabeni wonke sibikezelwa ukuthi sizokhuphukela ku-89.9 mb/d ngo-2012, okuyinzuzo engu-0.8 mb/d (noma u-0.9%) ngonyaka odlule. Ukukhula kwehliswe ngo-0.3 mb/d uma kuqhathaniswa noJanuwari, njengoba izinga lokukhula komnotho elisekela umbono wesidingo sikawoyela emhlabeni wonke, lehlile laya ku-3.3% lisuka ku-4.0% ngaphambilini.

Ukunikezwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe kwe-OPEC ngoJanuwari kukhuphuke kwafinyelela ku-30.9 mb/d, okuyizinga eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2008, ekukhuphukeni okuqhubekayo kokukhiqizwa kwaseLibya kanye nomkhiqizo oqhubekayo ovela eSaudi Arabia nase-UAE. I-'call on OPEC crude and stock change' yehliswa ngo-100 kb/d ngo-2012, iye ku-29.9 mb/d. Umthamo oyisipele 'osebenzayo' we-OPEC awushintshile kakhulu, ku-2.82 mb/d.

UDisemba amasheya kawoyela embonini ye-OECD ehle ngo-40.8 mb kuya ku-2 611 mb, futhi ahlala ngaphansi kwesilinganiso seminyaka emihlanu inyanga yesithupha ilandelana. Ikhava yokufuna phambili yehle ngezinsuku eziyi-0.7 yaya ezinsukwini ezingama-57.2, kodwa ihlala izinsuku eziyi-1.6 ngaphezu kwesilinganiso seminyaka emihlanu. Idatha yokuqala yangoJanuwari ibonisa ukwakhiwa okungashoni kakhulu kunokujwayelekile okungu-11.4 mb esitokweni semboni ye-OECD.

Intengo Kawoyela Ku-Sterling Kanye Nemiphumela Yayo Esheshayo
Uwoyela onenani eliphakeme kakhulu ufinyelele irekhodi eliphezulu ngoLwesithathu, futhi usuphinde wephula lelo zinga namuhla ekuseni. Ngenkathi i-WTI ifinyelela irekhodi le-circa € 148 umphongolo ngo-2008 sterling wawunamandla kakhulu uma uqhathaniswa ne-USD, eduze nephawundi elilodwa kuwo wonke amadola amabili. Kodwa-ke, ngezinga lokushintshisana liphansi kakhulu, amanani kawoyela e-Sterling manje aseqophelweni eliphezulu. Izindleko ze-Brent crude zifinyelele ku-$121.92 emgqonyeni, noma u-£77.77 ngoLwesithathu, zedlula irekhodi elihle elaqoshwa ngonyaka odlule ngesikhathi kushuba izingxabano zaseLibya.

Ukweqa emakethe kawoyela kuza ngemuva kokuthi intengo kadizili yase-UK ifinyelele irekhodi elingu-143p ilitha ngesonto eledlule phakathi kwezinsolo eYurophu nase-US zokuthi amanani entengo kaphethiloli aphezulu awumphumela wemakethe engasebenzi kahle. Abacwengisisi base-UK sebegxekwe kakhulu ngokunyusa intengo kaphethiloli ukuze kugcinwe umkhawulo ocindezelwe ukwehla kwesidingo. Abacwengi abaningi base-UK bangabasebenzi abazimele abathwele izikweletu abazabalaza ukukhokha izikweletu ngesikhathi sokuncipha kokuthengisa.

Intengo kawoyela ephezulu yaba yimbangela yokweqa okukhulu kwe-inflation yase-UK ngonyaka odlule yaya ngaphezu kuka-5%. Ukwenyuka kulo nyaka kungase kucekele phansi amathemba kaGeorge Osborne okuthi uzolulama. Izikhulu zaseSpain, Italy naseGreece nazo ziyibhekile intengo kawoyela ngoba zingabathengi abakhulu kwamanye amazwe, ikakhulukazi oluhlaza wase-Irani, futhi basengozini yokwenyuka kwezindleko.

 

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Ingabe Umshayeli Wezimoto Wase-UK Uzoqhubeka 'Nokuhoxisa Nokumpompa'?
Ngiye ngadumala ngibiza izakhamizi zakithi zase-UK ngokuthi "ama-shrug and pumpers". Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi umnotho uba mubi kangakanani, noma ukuthi intengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ifinyelela phezulu kangakanani, isakhamuzi sase-UK esiqotho simane “sishaye amahlombe futhi siphampu”. Umshwalense wezimoto e-UK wentsha yabantu abadala uyinani elixakile, u-£3,000 ngonyaka ukuze izingane ezineminyaka engu-18 zifakwe umshwalense (kumshwalense wabazali bazo) kuyinto evamile futhi lokhu ukushayela izimoto ezibiza u-£1,500. Yebo, yileso senzakalo sezomnotho futhi, intengo yokungabonakali manje idlula intengo yenyama ngo-101:2. Kepha akukaze kube nesifiso sokuxhasa imoto sibe sibi kakhulu kunase-UK. Kubantu abasha abahola kancane imoto imele inkululeko futhi naphezu kokushayela ngezimoto idla ingxenye yomholo wabo ngenyanga abantu abasha abadala babonakala bezimisele ukuphinde baqinise uthando lwabazali babo kanye nokulutheka kwezimoto.

Njengoba intengo kawoyela nge-sterling ifinyelele irekhodi eliphezulu izolo nanamuhla ukukhuphuka kwakamuva kuzogcina kufinyelele amanani ephampu, kodwa ingabe kuzosiqeda isidingo esinganeliseki, noma ingabe umshayeli wezimoto wase-UK uzovukela? Uma ubufakazi bangaphambili buyinkomba impendulo yayo yomibili imibuzo ingucha oqondile. Ngo-2005, komunye 'wemibhikisho kaphethiloli', babili kuphela abantu abahambele umbhikisho nokuvinjwa.

Ukubhikisha Kuphelile
Imibhikisho kaphethiloli e-United Kingdom iwuchungechunge lwemikhankaso ebibanjelwe e-United Kingdom mayelana nezindleko zikaphethiloli nodizili ukuze kusetshenziswe izimoto zomgwaqo. Kube nemikhankaso emithathu ekhulwini lama-21. Umbhikisho wokuqala ngo-2000 wawuholwa ikakhulukazi abashayeli bamaloli nabalimi.

[amathebhu isitayela=”default” title=”UK Petrol Protests”] [tab title=”2000″]Intela yabalelwa ku-81.5% wesamba sezindleko zikaphethiloli ongafakwanga umthofu, isuka ku-72.8% ngo-1993. Amanani kaphethiloli e-UK ayenyukile ukusuka ekubeni phakathi kwamanani ashibhe kakhulu eYurophu ukuya ekubeni abiza kakhulu ngesikhathi esifanayo. Ababhikishi bathi izindleko eziphakeme zokuthutha e-UK zenza kube nzima ukuthi imboni yezokuthutha iqhubeke nokuncintisana. Intengo kawoyela emhlabeni wonke yayinyuke isuka ku-$10 yaya ku-$30 umphongolo, okuyizinga eliphakeme kakhulu eminyakeni engu-10. Abashayeli base-UK manje bebekhokha isilinganiso sika-80 pence ilitha nge-unleaded kanye no-80.8p ngodizili. Uhulumeni wayesevele esilahlile isitebhisi sentela kaphethiloli ekuqaleni kuka-2000.[/tab] [tab title=”2005″]Ngo-August 2005, uphethiloli ongenayo i-lead wenyuka ngentengo ukuze uqophe ukuphakama kwamapeni angu-90, nenani elincane leziteshi ezikhokhisa ngaphezulu. £1 ilitha. NgoSepthemba inani lentengo lase lifinyelele ku-94.6pa litre, kanti ukunyuka kwawo kusolwa ngokwengxenye ekuncipheni kokutholakala komhlaba wonke ngemva kokuba iSiphepho uKatrina sidale umonakalo kwezinye izikhungo zikawoyela e-United States of America.

I-BBC yabika ngomhlaka-7 Septhemba 2005 ukuthi iqembu elibhekele ukuvinjwa ngoSepthemba 2000 lalisabisa ngokufaka imibhikisho ezindaweni ezihluzwa uwoyela kusukela ku-0600 BST ngomhlaka-14 Septhemba 2005 ngaphandle uma kwehliswa intela kawoyela. Uhulumende wenze inhlelo ezidingakalayo zokulondoloza amafutha ezimota, okugoqela ukusebenzisa abatshayeli bebutho abalikhulu ukuqhuba ama tankers, ukwethula isilinganiso samafutha emota kanye lokuthathelwa amalayisensi okushayela labo abephula umthetho.

Ukuthengwa kovalo kubikwe ngomhlaka-13 Septhemba 2005 njengoba abashayeli bebegcwele uphethiloli nabashayeli kubikwa ukuthi balinde ihora lonke ukugcwalisa izimoto zabo ngophethiloli. Ekuphakameni kwawo, cishe amagalaji kaphethiloli acishe abe ngu-3,000 aphelelwe uphethiloli.

Kodwa-ke, ngomhla ziyi-14 kuMandulo 2005, inani elincane kuphela lababhikishi elafika ezindaweni zokuhluza bengenanhloso yokuqala ukuvala izintuba zokungena. I-UK Petroleum Industry Association ithe umbhikisho wosuku ubonakale “uthule ngendlela emangalisayo” ngomcimbi omkhulukazi obuhanjelwe umholi wePeople's Fuel Lobby u-Andrew Spence, nohehe ababhikishi abayi-10 nje kuphela ngesikhathi esiphezulu. E-Stanlow Refinery, eyavinjwa ngo-2000 ababhikishi ababili kuphela ababethamele umbhikisho.[/tab] [tab title=”2007″]Ngasekupheleni kuka-2007, amanani kaphethiloli adlula u-£1 ilitha kanye nokunyuka kwentela kaphethiloli ngo-2 pence ngo-Okthoba, okuholele emananini aphezulu kadizili kanye nelesine ngobukhulu kuphethiloli eYurophu. Imibhikisho emisha yahlelwa amaqembu amabili angaxhumene, elilodwa elibizwa ngeTransaction 2007 kanye neRoad Haulage Association (RHA). Igatsha lase-Scottish le-RHA lenze isiphakamiso sokuvinjwa kwezimoto ezingaba ngu-30, kanti i-Transaction 2007 ihlose ukubhikisha ngaphandle kwezindawo ezihluza uwoyela. Ngenkathi i-rolling road block iheha izimoto ezingama-45 ezishayela cishe amakhilomitha angama-40 ngehora (64 km/h) emigwaqweni eminingi, izinga lombhikisho ezindaweni ezihluzwa uwoyela laliphansi kunango-2000.[/tab] [/tabs]

Amazwana zivaliwe.

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