Okthoba 10 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-10227 • 2 Amazwana kokuthi Ingabe Ukuvula Ithini Lezikelemu Kukhanyisa I-Powder Keg?
Ngiyaxolisa ngokuxuba izingathekiso ezimbili esihlokweni, ngicabangele ezintathu, (ibhokisi likaPandora belingangena kalula) kodwa 'imicimbi' emibili ehlukene ezinsukwini zakamuva ikhanyise iphepha lokuthinta..oops..kukhona isingathekiso sesithathu. Esinye isenzakalo sanyakaza sadlula umhlathi saba yimpi ngokumelene nenkinga ethile yezomnotho, esinye sihlala sigxilile endaweni yomhlathi womhlathi.
I-BoE yase-UK kanye neKomidi layo leNqubomgomo Yezimali lizibophezele ukujova imali engaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama-£75 emabhange ase-UK ngendlela ye-QE2. Ukuvikela inqubomgomo kwakushesha, ngokusho kwelungu eliphezulu le-MPC kukhona "indawo eningi kakhulu" yomjikelezo owengeziwe wokunciphisa inani. UMartin Weale uthe nakuba amabhange amakhulu akufanele abonwe njengesixazululo “sezinkinga zomhlaba”, umzuliswano wesithathu we-QE ungenzeka. Lesi sinyathelo siwushintsho lokuqala ohlelweni kusukela ngoNovemba 2009 futhi sinikeze uphawu olucacile nokho lokuthi iBhange licabanga ukuthi iBrithani isonqenqemeni lokuwohloka komnotho okuphindwe kabili.
Ekhuluma noDermot Murnaghan kuSky News yase-UK ngeSonto, uMnu. Weale uthe njengoba inzalo iphansi kangaka, iBhangengodla lisengakwazi ukufaka imali eyengeziwe ohlelweni njengoba lizama ukukhuthaza ukukhula komnotho.
Kuningi kakhulu ukusetshenzwa kwenani lokwelula. Ngaphambi kokuthenga esikumemezele ngesonto eledlule, isamba sesikweletu sikaHulumeni ohlelweni empeleni besiphezulu kunalokhu ebesikuso ngaphambi kokuqala kokuncishiswa kwenani. Kuningi kakhulu okungenziwa kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo ngicabanga ukuthi umuntu kufanele abone ukuthi amabhange amakhulu angeke alindeleke ewodwa ukuthi axazulule zonke izinkinga zomhlaba.
UMnu Weale ukuchithile ukuthi i-QE ivele iholele ekwenyukeni kwamandla emali ngaphandle kokuvuselela umnotho, wathi isimo singaba sibi ngaphandle komzuliswano wesibili we-QE. Kodwa uvumile ukuthi kukhona “ukungaqiniseki” ngomthelela we-QE. "Angikezwa muntu ephakamisa ukuthi ukuncishiswa kwenani empeleni kuvimbela ukukhula komnotho, ukuthi uyehluleka ukunikeza ukwesekwa," engeza. “Abanye abantu baphakamise ukuthi ihumusha ngokuqondile emalini ngaphandle kokusekela ukukhula komnotho, kodwa angisiboni isizathu sokuthi kungani kufanele kube njalo.”
Izinkulumo ezivela kweyakamuva ethi 'Merkozy' (Merkel/Sarkozy) pow wow ibonakale yenza izincwadi zibe lukhuni ngobusuku nje obunye. Ukulandisa kushintshile kusuka esibhakabhakeni esiluhlaza kucatshangwa kulokho okubonakala kuyinqubomgomo enqunyiwe. U-Angela Merkel kanye noNicolas Sarkozy babonakala bephendule inkulumo yabo yokulwa yaba ipulani abazoyiqala ngasekupheleni kwale nyanga ezodlula uhlelo oludala lwamasonto ayi-12 olungakaqalwa.
“Sizovuselela amabhange. Sizokwenza ngokuvumelana ngokuphelele nabangane bethu baseJalimane ngoba umnotho uyakudinga, ukuze siqinisekise ukukhula nokuxhaswa ngezimali.” – UMongameli Sarkozy.
Ngokwemvelo ingxenye eyodwa ahlulekile ukuyisho yiqiniso lokuthi wonke amalungu e-Eurozone ayishumi nesikhombisa kuzodingeka aqinisekise inqubomgomo enjalo, nokho, ukuhambisana sekuqala ukuvela nakuba ngendlela ephansi kabuhlungu. Uma 'izimakethe' zingadlulela embuzweni wokuthi kungenzeka ukuthi i-Greece imisiwe; uma kubhekwa njengento engenakugwenywa kodwa ukulinganisa umthelela ongase ube khona njengomkhawulo uma kunikezwe uhlelo olukhulu lokutshala kabusha imali kuzobe sekusebenza kakade, khona-ke abaholi be-Eurozone bangase bakubheke njengomsebenzi owenziwe kahle. Okungafanele kushaywe indiva izinhloso zikaSarkozy, umbono kubavoti bakhe wukuthi usebenza kanzima ekuxazululeni isixazululo, kodwa kumele angagcini ngokuhlaba umxhwele abaseFrance kodwa nezimakethe njengoba iFrance idlondlobala kumele zibe ngaphansi kwengcindezi. Ukwehliswa kwe-Italy kanye neSpain ngoLwesihlanu ntambama kuzobe kuwuthukile uhulumeni waseFrance, ngokufanayo ukukhokhelwa kwamabhange amakhulu aseFrance kuzophinde kuphenywe futhi kuhlolwe emasontweni ezayo ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa ukungenelela ukuze kusindiswe i-Dexia.
Izimakethe zisabele kahle ekuthuthukisweni kwangezimpelasonto, inkomba ye-SPX yesikhathi esizayo ye-equity ikhuphuke cishe ngo-1%. I-STOXX okwamanje ikhuphuke ngo-0.55%, i-UK FTSE ikhuphuke ngo-0.59%, i-CAC ikhuphuke ngo-0.7% kanti i-DAX okwamanje ikhuphuke ngo-0.36%. Ibhozi yase-Italy eyinhloko, i-MIB 40 okwamanje ikhuphuke ngo-1.17%, nakuba cishe u-25% onyakeni ongemuhle unyaka wonke ilahlekelwe indawo kanye nebanga lokulikhokhela.
Nakuba endabeni yezinkomba ezingasebenzi kahle njengendlela yokusebenzisa ingqondo kufanele kucatshangelwe inani 'isamba' esisuliwe ezimakethe njengoba umzila wakamuva uqhubeka. I-Circa $11 trillion isuliwe enanini lesabelo somhlaba wonke ngokusho kweBloomberg. Abatshalizimali bakhulisa umthamo wabo wokuhweba nge-bearish ngenani elikhulu kunawo wonke okungenani eminyakeni emihlanu, baqiniseka ukuthi amanani aphansi kusukela ngo-2009 ngeke afakazele ukuthi asikho isithiyo ekulahlekeni ngemuva kokuthi ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-11 esuliwe kumasheya.
Amasheya abolekiwe, okuyinkomba yokuthengisa okufushane, akhuphuke afinyelela kumaphesenti ayi-11.6 esitoko ngenyanga edlule esuka kumaphesenti angu-9.5 ngoJulayi, okuwukwanda okukhulu kusukela okungenani ngo-2006, ngokolwazi oluhlanganiswe iBloomberg ngabakwaData Explorers, inkampani yocwaningo eseLondon. Ukuhweba okuzuzayo lapho ukulingana kwamaShayina ehla sekufinyelele eminyakeni emine yokubheja ephezulu kanye ne-bearish e-US yikhona okukhulu kusukela ngo-2009, umbukiso wedatha yokushintshisana.
I-euro yenze inzuzo enkulu uma iqhathaniswa namapheya ayo amakhulu ekuhwebeni kwasekuseni naphakathi nasekuseni. Njengamanje uma iqhathaniswa nedola kanye ne-yen isule ukulahlekelwa kwezikhathi zangoLwesihlanu. Njengephuzu elifanele ukuphawulwa, naphezu kovivinyo nezinsizi i-euro kanye ne-Eurozone eziye zabhekana nazo ezinyangeni eziyishumi nambili ezedlule, i-euro isaqhubekela phambili endaweni yayo eyizinyanga eziyishumi nambili iqhathaniswa nedola, elalinganiswa kusukela ngoSepthemba 2010-2011.
NgoJuni 2010 yafinyelela ephansi ku-€1.20 futhi izinkulumo zokuhleba zazihlangana ngesikhathi sokuthi ukulingana kungase kubonakale. Ukuhlobana kuka-Sterling nenhlangano ye-euro yanamuhla kuye kwabonakala njengoba zombili izinhlobo zemali nazo zehlile uma ziqhathaniswa ne-Swissy. Idola liwile uma liqhathaniswa nama-majors amane ngokwemvelo njengokubonisa ukuzethemba kwemakethe enkulu idola lingase lithengiswe liphele. Lokhu kungase kubonise ukuthi ukulingana kwangakusasa ku-SPX mancane amathuba okuba kube nokuhlehla komuzwa uma isikhathi se-NY siqhubeka.
inhlekelele ye-eurozoneiziphakamiso zemakethe zangaphambiliukunciphisa okulinganiselwe
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Ngabe Ukuvula Ikani Lezikelemu Kukhanyisa I-Powder Keg?
Okthoba 10 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-10227 • 2 Amazwana kokuthi Ingabe Ukuvula Ithini Lezikelemu Kukhanyisa I-Powder Keg?
Ngiyaxolisa ngokuxuba izingathekiso ezimbili esihlokweni, ngicabangele ezintathu, (ibhokisi likaPandora belingangena kalula) kodwa 'imicimbi' emibili ehlukene ezinsukwini zakamuva ikhanyise iphepha lokuthinta..oops..kukhona isingathekiso sesithathu. Esinye isenzakalo sanyakaza sadlula umhlathi saba yimpi ngokumelene nenkinga ethile yezomnotho, esinye sihlala sigxilile endaweni yomhlathi womhlathi.
I-BoE yase-UK kanye neKomidi layo leNqubomgomo Yezimali lizibophezele ukujova imali engaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama-£75 emabhange ase-UK ngendlela ye-QE2. Ukuvikela inqubomgomo kwakushesha, ngokusho kwelungu eliphezulu le-MPC kukhona "indawo eningi kakhulu" yomjikelezo owengeziwe wokunciphisa inani. UMartin Weale uthe nakuba amabhange amakhulu akufanele abonwe njengesixazululo “sezinkinga zomhlaba”, umzuliswano wesithathu we-QE ungenzeka. Lesi sinyathelo siwushintsho lokuqala ohlelweni kusukela ngoNovemba 2009 futhi sinikeze uphawu olucacile nokho lokuthi iBhange licabanga ukuthi iBrithani isonqenqemeni lokuwohloka komnotho okuphindwe kabili.
Ekhuluma noDermot Murnaghan kuSky News yase-UK ngeSonto, uMnu. Weale uthe njengoba inzalo iphansi kangaka, iBhangengodla lisengakwazi ukufaka imali eyengeziwe ohlelweni njengoba lizama ukukhuthaza ukukhula komnotho.
Kuningi kakhulu ukusetshenzwa kwenani lokwelula. Ngaphambi kokuthenga esikumemezele ngesonto eledlule, isamba sesikweletu sikaHulumeni ohlelweni empeleni besiphezulu kunalokhu ebesikuso ngaphambi kokuqala kokuncishiswa kwenani. Kuningi kakhulu okungenziwa kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo ngicabanga ukuthi umuntu kufanele abone ukuthi amabhange amakhulu angeke alindeleke ewodwa ukuthi axazulule zonke izinkinga zomhlaba.
UMnu Weale ukuchithile ukuthi i-QE ivele iholele ekwenyukeni kwamandla emali ngaphandle kokuvuselela umnotho, wathi isimo singaba sibi ngaphandle komzuliswano wesibili we-QE. Kodwa uvumile ukuthi kukhona “ukungaqiniseki” ngomthelela we-QE. "Angikezwa muntu ephakamisa ukuthi ukuncishiswa kwenani empeleni kuvimbela ukukhula komnotho, ukuthi uyehluleka ukunikeza ukwesekwa," engeza. “Abanye abantu baphakamise ukuthi ihumusha ngokuqondile emalini ngaphandle kokusekela ukukhula komnotho, kodwa angisiboni isizathu sokuthi kungani kufanele kube njalo.”
Izinkulumo ezivela kweyakamuva ethi 'Merkozy' (Merkel/Sarkozy) pow wow ibonakale yenza izincwadi zibe lukhuni ngobusuku nje obunye. Ukulandisa kushintshile kusuka esibhakabhakeni esiluhlaza kucatshangwa kulokho okubonakala kuyinqubomgomo enqunyiwe. U-Angela Merkel kanye noNicolas Sarkozy babonakala bephendule inkulumo yabo yokulwa yaba ipulani abazoyiqala ngasekupheleni kwale nyanga ezodlula uhlelo oludala lwamasonto ayi-12 olungakaqalwa.
“Sizovuselela amabhange. Sizokwenza ngokuvumelana ngokuphelele nabangane bethu baseJalimane ngoba umnotho uyakudinga, ukuze siqinisekise ukukhula nokuxhaswa ngezimali.” – UMongameli Sarkozy.
Ngokwemvelo ingxenye eyodwa ahlulekile ukuyisho yiqiniso lokuthi wonke amalungu e-Eurozone ayishumi nesikhombisa kuzodingeka aqinisekise inqubomgomo enjalo, nokho, ukuhambisana sekuqala ukuvela nakuba ngendlela ephansi kabuhlungu. Uma 'izimakethe' zingadlulela embuzweni wokuthi kungenzeka ukuthi i-Greece imisiwe; uma kubhekwa njengento engenakugwenywa kodwa ukulinganisa umthelela ongase ube khona njengomkhawulo uma kunikezwe uhlelo olukhulu lokutshala kabusha imali kuzobe sekusebenza kakade, khona-ke abaholi be-Eurozone bangase bakubheke njengomsebenzi owenziwe kahle. Okungafanele kushaywe indiva izinhloso zikaSarkozy, umbono kubavoti bakhe wukuthi usebenza kanzima ekuxazululeni isixazululo, kodwa kumele angagcini ngokuhlaba umxhwele abaseFrance kodwa nezimakethe njengoba iFrance idlondlobala kumele zibe ngaphansi kwengcindezi. Ukwehliswa kwe-Italy kanye neSpain ngoLwesihlanu ntambama kuzobe kuwuthukile uhulumeni waseFrance, ngokufanayo ukukhokhelwa kwamabhange amakhulu aseFrance kuzophinde kuphenywe futhi kuhlolwe emasontweni ezayo ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa ukungenelela ukuze kusindiswe i-Dexia.
Izimakethe zisabele kahle ekuthuthukisweni kwangezimpelasonto, inkomba ye-SPX yesikhathi esizayo ye-equity ikhuphuke cishe ngo-1%. I-STOXX okwamanje ikhuphuke ngo-0.55%, i-UK FTSE ikhuphuke ngo-0.59%, i-CAC ikhuphuke ngo-0.7% kanti i-DAX okwamanje ikhuphuke ngo-0.36%. Ibhozi yase-Italy eyinhloko, i-MIB 40 okwamanje ikhuphuke ngo-1.17%, nakuba cishe u-25% onyakeni ongemuhle unyaka wonke ilahlekelwe indawo kanye nebanga lokulikhokhela.
Nakuba endabeni yezinkomba ezingasebenzi kahle njengendlela yokusebenzisa ingqondo kufanele kucatshangelwe inani 'isamba' esisuliwe ezimakethe njengoba umzila wakamuva uqhubeka. I-Circa $11 trillion isuliwe enanini lesabelo somhlaba wonke ngokusho kweBloomberg. Abatshalizimali bakhulisa umthamo wabo wokuhweba nge-bearish ngenani elikhulu kunawo wonke okungenani eminyakeni emihlanu, baqiniseka ukuthi amanani aphansi kusukela ngo-2009 ngeke afakazele ukuthi asikho isithiyo ekulahlekeni ngemuva kokuthi ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-11 esuliwe kumasheya.
Amasheya abolekiwe, okuyinkomba yokuthengisa okufushane, akhuphuke afinyelela kumaphesenti ayi-11.6 esitoko ngenyanga edlule esuka kumaphesenti angu-9.5 ngoJulayi, okuwukwanda okukhulu kusukela okungenani ngo-2006, ngokolwazi oluhlanganiswe iBloomberg ngabakwaData Explorers, inkampani yocwaningo eseLondon. Ukuhweba okuzuzayo lapho ukulingana kwamaShayina ehla sekufinyelele eminyakeni emine yokubheja ephezulu kanye ne-bearish e-US yikhona okukhulu kusukela ngo-2009, umbukiso wedatha yokushintshisana.
I-euro yenze inzuzo enkulu uma iqhathaniswa namapheya ayo amakhulu ekuhwebeni kwasekuseni naphakathi nasekuseni. Njengamanje uma iqhathaniswa nedola kanye ne-yen isule ukulahlekelwa kwezikhathi zangoLwesihlanu. Njengephuzu elifanele ukuphawulwa, naphezu kovivinyo nezinsizi i-euro kanye ne-Eurozone eziye zabhekana nazo ezinyangeni eziyishumi nambili ezedlule, i-euro isaqhubekela phambili endaweni yayo eyizinyanga eziyishumi nambili iqhathaniswa nedola, elalinganiswa kusukela ngoSepthemba 2010-2011.
NgoJuni 2010 yafinyelela ephansi ku-€1.20 futhi izinkulumo zokuhleba zazihlangana ngesikhathi sokuthi ukulingana kungase kubonakale. Ukuhlobana kuka-Sterling nenhlangano ye-euro yanamuhla kuye kwabonakala njengoba zombili izinhlobo zemali nazo zehlile uma ziqhathaniswa ne-Swissy. Idola liwile uma liqhathaniswa nama-majors amane ngokwemvelo njengokubonisa ukuzethemba kwemakethe enkulu idola lingase lithengiswe liphele. Lokhu kungase kubonise ukuthi ukulingana kwangakusasa ku-SPX mancane amathuba okuba kube nokuhlehla komuzwa uma isikhathi se-NY siqhubeka.
inhlekelele ye-eurozoneiziphakamiso zemakethe zangaphambiliukunciphisa okulinganiselwe
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