ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKethwa KWEVIKI 11/01 - 15/01 | IGLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS ROAR BACK TO LIFE NGESONTO LOKUQALA LIKA-2021, NJENGABASEBENZISI BABASEBENZISI BOKUTHOLA
Izimakethe eziyinhloko ze-US equity, i-SPX 500, i-DJIA 30 ne-NASDAQ 100 konke okushicilelwe okuphezulu ngesikhathi sokuhweba kwesonto lokuqala lika-2021. Izizathu bezihlukahlukene: ukusondela kokuvulwa kweBiden-Harris, ukuqhutshwa kweSenate kunikeza isiqiniseko esithe xaxa kuhulumeni kanye nenqubo yokwenziwa komthetho, kanye nenqubekela phambili ekuthuthukisweni komuthi wokugoma, yize ukukhishwa kwemithi yokugoma emhlabeni jikelele kusamele izinkinga zokudla.
Umbono wokuzinza uhulumeni weDemokhrasi ozayo udambise isimo sabatshalizimali. Ukuzethemba kuthuthukise ukuthi okunye ukukhuthazwa kwakha uhulumeni we-Fed no-US, okuzodale isimo semakethe esengozini.
I-NASDAQ 100 yephula izinga le-13,000
NgoLwesine, ngoJanuwari 7, i-NASDAQ ekugcineni yaqhuma ngenombolo yokubamba engu-13,000 okokuqala ngqa emlandweni we-index. Ukwephulwa kwaleli zinga kwamenyezelwa kwabezindaba njengoba umsunguli weTesla, u-Elon Musk, aqokwa njengendoda ecebe kakhulu emhlabeni, ebiza u- $ 180b omangazayo.
Abatshalizimali nabathengisi beBitcoin nezinye izinhlamvu zemali ze-crypto babenezizathu zokujabula phakathi nesonto njengoba iBTC yephula izinga lama- $ 40,000. Manje iphindwe kabili ngentengo ngenyanga. Izizathu ezinikeziwe zifaka phakathi imali ebonakalayo yokuba uthango uma kuqhathaniswa nokwehla kwamandla emali, utshalomali olunenzuzo lapho ama-akhawunti wediphozi ekunika cishe izimbuyiselo ezingama-zero, kanye nokumbiwa kwe-BTC okusondela ekupheleni kwayo kwezibalo. Noma kungaba yi-hype ngokususelwa ekuthokozeni okungenangqondo.
Idola laseMelika lizinza ngoJanuwari 2021
Idola laseMelika lithole ukululama okunesizotha kuze kube manje ngo-2021, inkomba yedola i-DXY isinyathele kulayini we-90.00 futhi inyuke ngo-0.12% kuze kube manje ngonyaka. Uma uqhathanisa zombili izimali ze-antipodean, i-NZD ne-AUD, idola laseMelika lehle cishe cishe -0.75%. I-USD isondele ezingeni lonyaka kuze kube manje uma iqhathaniswa nabanye ontanga bayo, ngaphandle kwe-sterling, i-GBP / USD yehle -0.68% njengoba iqiniso leBrexit liqala ukushaya.
Ukuhweba nge-EUR, i-GBP ne-USD kube yinkohliso phakathi nesonto lokuqala lika-2021. Izenzo zentengo yansuku zonke bezilokhu zivela kancane, futhi izitayela zesikhathi esimaphakathi ezibhangqa ezinkulu zemali kukhombise ukuthi kunzima ukuzikhomba.
Kodwa-ke, i-USD / JPY manje yephule ama-DMA angama-50 esibekweni sansuku zonke, okuphakamisa ukuthi ukuthambekela kwe-bullish kungathuthuka, umbono osekelwa yimigoqo ye-Heikin-Ashi yezinsuku ezedlule. Impi yaseBrexit, ekhonjwe ngenani le-EUR / GBP, ikhonjiswa kahle ngama-DMA ayi-100 kanye nama-50 asondele ekuhlanganeni.
Ukudumaza idatha yemisebenzi yase-USA kwehluleka ukudambisa imizwa yabatshalizimali
Imininingwane evelele yezomnotho e-USA kuleli sonto kube yizinombolo zomsebenzi ezizimele, izicelo zabangasebenzi kanye nenombolo ye-NFP. Inombolo yemisebenzi yangasese ye-ADP ingene ngo -123K, kanti izicelo zamasonto onke zokungasebenzi zihlale ziseduze nezinga le-800K. Lapho kubhalwa lesi sibuyekezo, abakwaReuters babikezela ukuthi inombolo ye-NFP izongena ku-70K ngoLwesihlanu 8, okuyinombolo yokudala amathuba emisebenzi ebi kakhulu selokhu kuqale igagasi 1 lobhubhane lwe-COVID-19.
Izibalo ezinjalo zingaba nokukhathazeka kwabatshalizimali maqondana nempilo yomnotho wase-US ngokuphelele kunoma yisiphi esinye isikhathi. Kepha ngokukhishwa okuseduze kwemithi yokugoma, abatshalizimali kanye nabahwebi babheke ukwedlula imininingwane edumazayo yemisebenzi, nasekuqondeni kohulumeni namabhange amakhulu ukwakha kabusha umnotho wezwe lasentshonalanga phakathi kuka-2021 no-2022.
Ukwehliswa kwesifo esiwumshayabhuqe kunomthelela olinganiselwe ezimakethe zokulingana kwezezimali
Ama-Lockdowns abamba ukhiye ekululameni okuqhubekayo. Noma kunjalo, abatshalizimali esitokisini bahlala bengenandaba ngoba uma amabhange amakhulu kanye nohulumeni beqhubeka nokuzibandakanya ezintweni zokuthenga noma kwempahla ngokuncipha kwenani, izimakethe zizophakama.
Isibonelo, uhulumeni wase-UK umemezele ukuvalwa okunzima ngesonto lokuqala likaJanuwari, kanti ukuwa kwezitolo kudilike cishe ngo-50% emavikini okuqala okuthenga ngoDisemba uma kuqhathaniswa no-2019. Isibikezelo ukuthi izinga langempela lokungasebenzi kwabantu base-UK lizophindeka kabili, futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali okuziphindayo kuzokwenzeka nge-Q2. Okwamanje, iBrexit izoqala kancane ukudala isiphithiphithi esiqhubekayo emachwebeni.
Kepha inkomba ehamba phambili i-FTSE 100 njengamanje ingu-6.00% phezulu ngoJanuwari ngemuva kokuthi iBhange laseNgilandi kanye neKhansela lase-UK limemezele ukwesekwa okuqhubekayo lapho kunesidingo. Eqinisweni, amafemu amaningi acashunwe e-FTSE 100 awasekelwe e-UK, kepha ithemba lokutshalwa kwezimali e-UK lihlala linamandla yize kunezinselelo ezisobala.
Uwoyela, ithusi nezinsimbi eziyigugu kungakhomba lapho kutholakala khona imizwa yomhlaba
Imvamisa ibizwa ngokuthi “udokotela wethusi” ngoba iqopha impilo yezomnotho womhlaba, ithusi lifinyelele eminyakeni eyisishiyagalombili phezulu kuleli sonto. I-WTI ikhuphuke kakhulu futhi, yephula ama-dollar angama-50 emgqonyeni okokuqala ngqa kusukela ngoMashi 2020. Isiliva negolide nakho kuye kwaphakama kanti izinsimbi eziyigugu ziyizimpahla zokucabangela ezisetshenziswa kakhulu ekukhiqizeni izimboni.
Zonke izinto ezibalulwe ngenhla zihlelwa njengama-thermometer athatha izinga lokushisa lomnotho womhlaba. IYurophu kanye neMelika kuyisisekelo senkinga ye-COVID-19 kanti i-Europe kanye ne-Americas GDP yawa phakathi no-2020. Ngokuphambene nalokho, iChina namanye amazwe ase-Asia anikwe amandla phambili ngo-2020, kanti ukukhula kwe-GDP yaseChina kwaba ngu-4.90% ngo-2020. Injini yokukhula komhlaba, ngakho-ke amanani ezinto zesikhathi esizayo akhuphukile.
Isonto elizayo ekhalendeni lezomnotho
NgoLwesibili kushicilelwa ukuvulwa kwamathuba emisebenzi kwakamuva e-JOLTS e-USA. Ukulindela ukuwela ku-6.3m. Amasheya kawoyela ongahluziwe kulindeleke akhombise ukuwa okuqhubekayo okungathinta intengo yomgqomo wamafutha.
NgoLwesithathu kushicilelwa izibalo zokukhiqizwa kwezimboni ze-Eurozone. Isibikezelo sokwehla okukhulu ngoNovemba ngo -1.4%. Kamuva osukwini lapho sekuzovulwa iseshini yaseNew York, kushicilelwa amanani emali e-US. Ukulindela ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali ngeke kushintshe ku-1.2%. Inani le-yen lingahlolisiswa esimisweni sase-Asia, njengoba iJapane ishicilela imininingwane yama-oda emishini yakamuva. Isibikezelo sokuwela ku-4.2% ngoNovemba abanye abahlaziyi babikezela inombolo engemihle yale metric yaseJapan ehamba phambili.
NgoLwesine kudalulwe isihlenga semininingwane yamaShayina yokuthumela nokungenisa. Lokhu okulindelwe kungukukhula okunempilo, unyaka nonyaka nenyanga, okubonakala kubhalansi yezibalo zokuhweba. Idatha yesiko yezimangalo zomsebenzi yamasonto onke iyashicilelwa e-US, isonto lokuqala lapho kubalwa ukudilizwa kwabadlali abaningi ngezikhathi ezithile zonyaka, okungadala ukuphikiswa. Izintengo zokuthekelisa nokungenisa ziyamenyezelwa e-US, okukhombisa ukuthi amandla emali aphokophele kuphi esikhathini esifushane.
NgoLwesihlanu kushicilelwa isibalo sakamuva se-UK GDP. Isibikezelo sikhula ngo-1.5% ezinyangeni ezintathu kuze kufike kuNovemba. Kodwa-ke, abahlaziyi balindele ukuthi i-Q yokugcina ka-2020 ne-Q1 2021 ibe yimbi ngenxa yokukhiya. Ibhalansi yase-UK yezibalo zokuhweba nayo kufanele yehle. Isibalo se-GDP singathinta inani le-sterling kuya ngokuthi izibikezelo ziyaphuthelwa noma zishaywe izilinganiso. Kukhona isihlenga sedatha yomthelela ophakathi nendawo kuya phezulu eshicilelwe e-US ngezikhathi zantambama. Ukuthengiswa kokuthengisa, inkomba yoMbuso waseNew York, izibalo zokukhiqizwa kwezimboni, izinhlu zamabhizinisi, kanye nokufundwa kwemizwa yaseMichigan konke kuyashicilelwa ngesikhathi esimatasa. Ukubulawa okunjalo kwedatha kungathinta izinkomba zokulingana kwe-US kanye nenani le-USD uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga bayo abakhulu.
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