Isibalo se-Eurozone GDP esikhishwe ngoLwesibili, singaqondisa inqubomgomo ye-ECB ngo-2018
NgoLwesibili ekuseni isikhathi esimatasa kakhulu sokukhishwa kwekhalenda lezomnotho elinomthelela omkhulu. Ngaphambi kokudlulela ekukhululweni okubalulekile kosuku; I-Eurozone GDP, kubalulekile ukuthi sihlanganise ngokushesha konke okunye ukukhishwa okwenzeka ngo-10:00am GMT.
Isibalo sakamuva se-GDP yaseJalimane sishicilelwe, okulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ngo-2.3% YoY ku-Q3, lokhu kuzomela intuthuko ukusuka ku-2.1% eqoshwe ku-Q2. Uma kuqhathaniswa nokukhula okuqinile lapho kushicilelwa isibalo esibanzi se-Eurozone GDP, lesi sibalo singanikeza ukuzethemba kubenzi benqubomgomo yezimali nezezimali ze-Eurozone, ukuthi benze izinguquko ngo-2018. Ngemva kokuhlupheka isikhathi esinzima eminyakeni yamuva nje, i-Italy nayo ikhombisa izimpawu zokuthi ukululama okuqinile; I-GDP ibikezelwa ukuthi izofika ku-1.7% ku-Q3, isuka ku-1.5% ku-Q2. Njengomnotho ohamba phambili kwezokukhiqiza nokuthumela ngaphandle, namabhange nawo adlala indima ebalulekile, igalelo le-Italy ekukhuleni kwe-Eurozone akufanele lishaywe indiva.
Umnotho wase-UK uzongena ngaphansi kwesibonakhulu ngoLwesibili njengoba kukhishwa izibalo zakamuva zokwehla kwamandla emali, ukufundwa okugqame kakhulu yimethrikhi ye-CPI. Okulindelekile ukuthi i-CPI izobe isikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-3.1% YOY ngo-Okthoba, isuka ku-3% eqoshwe ngoSepthemba. Ibhange eliphakathi lase-UK i-BoE ikhulise amazinga ayisisekelo ngo-0.25% kuya ku-0.5% ekuqaleni kwale nyanga (November 2nd), emzamweni wokulwa nokucindezela kwamandla emali. Bebelindele ukukhuphuka kwephawundi uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga bayo ngokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo, ukuze kwehliswe ukwehla kwamandla emali okuthengwayo kwamanye amazwe.
Kodwa-ke, iphawundi lehlulekile ukukhuphuka, ngenxa yokuthi ukukhuphuka kwezinga lesisekelo sekuvele kunentengo, ngenxa yesiqondiso sangaphambili esikhishwe ngaphambili kanye nokulandisa kwe-BoE okuhambisanayo, okusikisela ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwe-0.25% kuzoba okukodwa; ukwenyuka bekungeke kukhombise isibhamu esidubulayo ukuze izinga eliyisisekelo likhushulwe ngokuhlelekile ngo-2018. Ukwehla kwamandla emali e-UK kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzokwehla kakhulu kusuka ku-8.4% kuya ku-4.7%, lokhu kuphinde kube yisibalo abahlaziyi okufanele basinake kakhulu, njengoba kuhlanganiswe nemethrikhi ye-CPI, ikhombisa ukuthi ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali engenisiwe e-UK iyalinganisela yini.
Njengoba siqhubekela emininingwaneni ye-Eurozone izinhlolovo zakamuva ze-ZEW zaseJalimane kanye ne-Eurozone zilethwa ngesimo samanje nesimo somnotho, kuyilapho umbuthano othakazelisayo wabaphathi bamabhange amakhulu wenziwa ngendlela yephaneli ye-ECB; U-Yellen, uDraghi, uKuroda noCarney, abahlangana futhi bakhulume eFrankfurt.
Ekuseni kwethu okumangalisayo kokukhishwa okubalulekile kwe-Europe, kuyavalwa njengoba lo mhlangano uqhubeka, ngokukhishwa kwesibalo sakamuva se-Q3 se-Eurozone GDP. Okulindelekile ukuthi isibalo se-Q3 siqophe ukukhula ngo-0.6%, nesibalo se-YoY sigcine isibalo sokukhula esimangalisayo esingu-2.5%. Uma iJalimane, i-Italy kanye ne-Eurozone ephrinta ekhuthaza izibalo zokukhula kwe-GDP, abahlaziyi nabahwebi bangase banqume ukuthi uMario Draghi kanye ne-ECB manje banezinhlamvu ezidingekayo ukuze baqale ukucushwa okunamandla kohlelo lwamanje lokuthengwa kwempahla.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kungase kucatshangelwe ukunweba indawo yebhulokhi eyodwa yamanje isuke kunqubomgomo yayo yezinga lenzalo eyiziro. Ngokwemvelo, izinqumo ezinjalo azinakwenzeka ukuthi zivezwe nguDraghi enkulumweni nasenkomfeni nabalingani bakhe bamabhange aphakathi, kodwa kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi uma izibalo ezintathu ze-GDP ziqinile, khona-ke umbuzo uzovela. Njengoba izinga le-USA Fed lingase likhuphuke ngoDisemba, lapho i-FOMC ihlangana okokugcina ngo-2017 kanye ne-UK BoE futhi iphakamisa amanani, umbuzo uhlala "i-ECB ingagwema isikhathi esingakanani ukulandela okufanayo?" Nokho, ingabe i-euro enamandla kancane ingalimaza ukukhula komnotho kwamanje, okujatshulelwa yisifunda?
Usuku luphela ngokukhishwa kwesibalo sakamuva se-GDP yase-Japan. Njengamanje ku-2.5%, isibikezelo singokuwa sifika ku-1.5% ku-Q3. Nakuba lokhu kuzomela ukwehla okukhulu, noma yimuphi umthelela ku-yen ungase uthuliswe, uma ukwehla sekuvele kunentengo kuzo izimakethe.
I-EUROZONE KEY ECONOMIC METRICS
• Izinga lentengo ye-1.4%.
• Uhulumeni. isikweletu v GDP 89.2%.
• Izinga lokukhula kwe-GDP ngonyaka ngo-2.5%.
• Izinga lokungasebenzi 8.9%.
• Isilinganiso senzalo 0.0%.
• I-PMI eyinhlanganisela 56.
• Ukukhula kokuthengiswa kwezitolo ngoYoY 3.7%.
• Isikweletu sasekhaya v GDP 58.5%.
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