Ukuhlola isu lethu le-Forex yokuhweba: ukubuyela emuva, ukuhlola phambili noma ukuhlanganiswa kwakho kokubili?
Kubonakala kunemibono emibili kanambambili mayelana nenani eliphelele lokuhlehla futhi lowo mbono uhlukaniswe ngokulinganayo. Abathengisi abaningi bafunga ngokubuyisela emuva, abanye bakusho njengokungasizi ngalutho, bethi ukuhlolwa kwangaphambili kuphela ngesikhathi sangempela endaweni yemakethe kusebenza. Kodwa ingabe likhona iphutha elibalulekile elinengqondo esicelweni sokuthi ukuhlola okuya phambili kuphela kuyasebenza? Phela, asikho isiqiniseko sokuthi ukuhlola phambili kuzoveza imiphumela emihle futhi kungabiza kokubili isikhathi nemali, ngaphandle uma sisebenzisa i-akhawunti yedemo.
Kungenzeka ukuthi sifike endaweni emnandi sisebenzisa indlela yethu yokuhlola yesikhathi esifushane, eya phambili (bukhoma) ukuze sisebenze, kodwa bese siyibuka iphahlazeka futhi isha ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho futhi uma singumthengisi wamaswing, singalinda isikhathi esingakanani ukuze sinqume ukuthi ukuhlola phambili kusebenzile? Izinyanga ezintathu? Lokho kungase kube yinzuzo eningi okungenzeka siphuthelwe yiyo. Nakuba ukuqinisekiswa kwethu kungase kubonakale kuthembisa, bese sikusebenzisa emakethe, sibe nethuba lokuzuza emakethe phakathi naleso sikhathi esiyizinyanga ezintathu.
Umlando ngeke usifundise lutho; ukwethula icala lokuphikisa.
Labo abathi i-backtesting ayisebenzi bazosho ukuthi abathengisi bazovele bazame ukugoba ukulingana namasu abo ukuze bamukele imiphumela ethophayo engaba khona. Icala liwukuthi ngeke babe nokuzithiba, ngisho nokusebenzisa idatha yomlando, ukuvumela idatha isebenze ngokukhululeka ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka, ukukhiqiza imiphumela emsulwa. Abagxeki bathi uma abadayisi befakaza i-backtesto behluleka ukuletha imiphumela edingekayo, khona-ke isilingo sokugoba kufanelekile sikhulu kakhulu; umhwebi uzolungisa kancane amapharamitha ahlukahlukene kanye nezilungiselelo zezinkomba ukuze athole umphumela odingekayo, bese egijima nesu ezimeni ezibukhoma. Ikakhulukazi uma isu lincike ochungechungeni lwezinkomba ukuze ziqondaniswe, ukuletha isignali yokungena noma ukuphuma endaweni yemakethe, isilingo sokushuna kahle singakhula. Ngokwesibonelo; abahloli basemuva bazoshintsha izilungiselelo kunkomba, noma baguqule isikhathi esibekelwe sona, noma bathole isivikelo esifanelana necebo, uma beqiniseka ngobuqiniso baso, kunokumane balahle indlela/isu bese beqhubeka.
Sethula icala lokuhlehla.
“Umlando awuphindi, kodwa wenza imvumelwano” ibinzana abaningi bethu esilaziyo, maqondana nokuhweba. Uma leyo nkulumo inenani elithile, maqondana namaphethini okuhweba anemvumelwano, ngakho-ke ngokuqinisekile ukubuyisela emuva kunevelu? Nakuba samukela ukuthi azikho izikhathi ezimbili ezimakethe ezifanayo nokuthi ukunyakaza kwezokuphepha ngakunye (kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kufushane noma kude) kuhlukile, ngokuqinisekile uma izimo ezithile zobuchwepheshe zihambisana nesikhathi esithile, khona-ke kukhona ithuba elizwakalayo lalezo zimo kanye nokuzithoba. ukuziphatha kwentengo kwepheya ethile yemali, ukuthatha iphethini efanayo esikhathini esizayo?
Asinaso isiqiniseko sokuthi ukuhlola okuya phambili kuzosebenza, njengoba sibhekene nesikhala esingenalutho kwesokudla seshadi lethu, kodwa sinobunye ubufakazi obungokomlando ngokuhlehla, esingasekela kukho ukwahlulela kwethu. Ngakho-ke ngokuhlolwa okuya phambili kungase kuthiwe sisekela ukuhlolwa kwethu ezenzakalweni zesikhathi esizayo, kodwa ngokuhlola emuva (ukuze usebenzise imiphumela engemuva ehlala emakethe), sisebenzisa ubufakazi obungokomlando, obunokufaneleka kanye nenani, ngaphezu kwalokho. futhi ngaphezu kwalokho okulindelwe esikhathini esizayo kuphela.
Ukusebenzisa ukuhlolwa kwe-backtesting nokudlulisela phambili imiphumela emihle.
Ukube besingochwepheshe belebhu, sihlola imibono ngaphambi kokufinyelela esiphethweni, besingahlaziya imiphumela yangaphambilini kanye nezandulela zomlando, ngaphambi kokuhlela ezinye izivivinyo ze-forensic ezinemininingwane eminingi? Mhlawumbe nasi isisombululo sethu; sisebenzisa inhlanganisela yokuhlola emuva naphambili, ukuze sihlole imibono yethu futhi sifinyelele esiphethweni sethu.
Ake sicabange ngesimo lapho i-backtest yethu iphumelele khona, futhi singathola imiphumela ye-backtest sisebenzisa amathuluzi obunikazi ahlukahlukene atholakala kithi ngokushesha. Inselele yethu elandelayo kufanele ibe isikhathi esingakanani sokulinganisa ukusebenza kahle kwemiphumela yethu ezimakethe. Njengoba kushiwo ngaphambili; uma ukuhlolwa okuya phambili kukude kakhulu, khona-ke singase simosha isikhathi futhi okungenzeka siphuthelwe yinzuzo engafunwanga. Ngakho-ke sidinga ukunquma isikali sesikhathi esifanele sokwahlulela ngaso ukuhlolwa kwethu okuya phambili.
Ngokwemvelo, uma singumthengisi wosuku, sizobe sesithatha uhwebo oluningi ngesikhathi sokuhlolwa kwethu emuva naphambili, kunokuba singumthengisi we-swing. Uma sibuyela emuva esikhathini esiyizinyanga ezintathu asikwazi ukudlulisela phambili ukuhlolwa sisebenzisa amapharamitha ethu okuhweba ajwayelekile, esikhathini esinjalo. Ngokuhweba kwasemini singathatha ukuhweba okungu-100 phakathi nenyanga, ngokuhweba ngokushwibeka kungase kube ngaphansi kuka-5 futhi lokho kucatshangwa (kukho kokubili ukuhlolwa), sihweba ngamapheya amabili emali amakhulu. Ingabe singakwazi ukwenza isahlulelo ngokweqiniso ngokusekelwe ekuhwebeni okungu-5? Ngaphezu kwalokho, ingabe singadlulisela phambili izinkolelo-mbono zethu ngokusekelwe ekuhwebeni okungu-5? Akunakwenzeka futhi yini ngaphezulu; ngisho nokulinda inyanga yokuhlola phambili kumodi ebukhoma ukuze ulethe imiphumela, kungase kube yinde kakhulu.
Ngakho-ke, kufanele futhi siqaphele futhi siqaphele ukulinganiselwa kwe-backtest yethu maqondana nesitayela sethu sokuhweba. Mhlawumbe kufanele futhi siqaphele ukuthi ukuthola ibhalansi phakathi kwe-backtesting kanye nokuhlola phambili, kulungele kuphela izitayela ezithile zokuhweba. Ngokungangabazeki ukuhweba nge-scalping noma ukuhweba kosuku, bekungenzeka ukuthi imvumelwano isebenze kakhulu.
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