Imithetho emikhulu kaNassim Taleb yeseluleko sokuhweba ngezithupha

Eph 3 • Phakathi kwemigqa • Ukubukwa okungu-14256 • 1 Comment emithethweni emikhulu kaNassim Taleb yeseluleko sokuhweba ngezithupha

Ngezikhathi ezithile kuyafaneleka ukulunguza emiqondweni yabanye balaba: abahwebi 'abadumile', ababhala indaba kanye nabacabangi emhlabeni wethu wokuhweba, ukuze babone ukuthi imiqondo yabo ithini ezicini eziningi zokuhweba esibhekana nazo usuku nosuku. isisekelo. Okubaluleke kakhulu ikhono labo lokuvele banqamule amakhophi abhalwe embonini yethu futhi bavele “bafinyelele iphuzu”. Kunjengokungathi amashumi eminyaka okuhlangenwe nakho kwabo kwehliselwe phansi mhlawumbe angabi ngaphezu kweshumi nambili amaphuzu acacile, abalulekile futhi amafushane angalungisa ngokushesha eminye yemibono nemikhuba yethu eyiphutha. UMark Douglas ukwazile ukwenza lokhu encwadini yakhe enhle kakhulu ethi "Trading in the Zone" lapho imicabango yakhe nezinkolelo zakhe sezithathe isikhundla esiyinganekwane embonini yethu.

Kodwa kulesi sihloko ungomunye umdondoshiya wezwe lezohwebo esifuna ukugxila kulo - uNassim Taleb* owashicilela “imithetho yesithupha” kulokho okwakubizwa “nge-Trader Risk Management Lore” yakhe. Abafundi abavamile balawa makholomu bazoqaphela ukuthi (ngephutha noma ngokuklama) sinanela izimangalo zakhe eziningi ezihlokweni zendatshana ezingenakubalwa esizidalile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abafundi bazokubona ukugxilisa ingqondo kukaTaleb, emngceleni wokuthatheka, mayelana nengozi iyonke kanye nokuphathwa kwemali, itimu ehlala ivela ezihlokweni zethu eziningi. Ngaphansi kwalesi sihloko sinqamule izigaba ezimbalwa ezivela ku-Wikipedia eziphathelene ne-Taleb kanye nabahwebi emphakathini wethu abafuna izinto zokufunda ukuze badlulise isikhathi phakathi kokuhlelwa kohwebo kanye nokusungula indlela eyindilinga nephelele embonini yethu. singancoma ukufunda izincwadi zikaTaleb ezihlanganisa i-Black Swan kanye ne-Fooled By Randomness. Incwadi kaTaleb yokuqala engeyona eyobuchwepheshe, ethi Fooled by Randomness, mayelana nokubukelwa phansi kwendima yokungahleliwe empilweni, cishe ngesikhathi esifanayo nokuhlasela kwangoSepthemba 11, yakhethwa nguFortune njengenye yezincwadi ezingama-75 ezihlakaniphe kakhulu ezaziwayo. Incwadi yakhe yesibili engeyona eyobuchwepheshe, I-Black Swan, mayelana nezenzakalo ezingalindelekile, yanyatheliswa ngo-2007, ithengisa cishe amakhophi ayizigidi ezi-3 (kusukela ngoFebhuwari 2011). Ichithe amasonto angama-36 ohlwini lwabathengisa kakhulu i-New York Times, ayi-17 njengoqwembe oluqinile kanye namasonto ayi-19 njengephepha elingemuva futhi yahunyushelwa ezilimini ezingama-31. I-Black Swan inikezwe udumo ngokubikezela isimo esibucayi sebhange kanye nezomnotho ngo-2008.

I-Trader Risk Management Lore: Imithetho emikhulu kaTaleb yesithupha

Umthetho No. 1- Ungangeni ezimakethe nemikhiqizo ongayiqondi. Uzoba idada elihlezi. Umthetho No. 2- Ingoma enkulu ozoyithatha ngokulandelayo ngeke ifane naleyo ogcine ukuyithatha. Ungalaleli ukuvumelana kokuthi izingozi zikuphi (okungukuthi, izingozi eziboniswa i-VAR). Okuzokulimaza yilokhu ongakulindele kancane. Umthetho No. 3- Kholelwa uhhafu walokho okufundayo, akukho kulokhu okuzwayo. Ungalokothi ufunde ithiyori ngaphambi kokwenza owakho umbono nokucabanga. Funda lonke ucezu locwaningo lwethiyori ongakwazi-kodwa hlala ungumhwebi. Ucwaningo olungagadiwe lwezindlela zenani eliphansi luzokuphuca ukuqonda kwakho.

Umthetho No. 4- Qaphela abadayisi abangekho emakethe abenza imali eqhubekayo-bavame ukuqhuma. Abahwebi abalahlekelwa njalo bangase bakulimaze, kodwa ngeke bakwazi ukukuqhumisa. Abathengisi besikhathi eside abashintshashintshayo balahlekelwa yimali izinsuku eziningi zesonto. (Igama elifundiwe: izakhiwo zesampula ezincane zesilinganiso se-Sharpe). Umthetho No. 5- Izimakethe zizolandela indlela yokulimaza inani eliphakeme kakhulu lama-hedgers. Amaheji amahle kakhulu yilawo owafaka wena wedwa. Umthetho No. 6- Ungalokothi uvumele usuku ludlule ngaphandle kokutadisha izinguquko ezintengweni zawo wonke amathuluzi okuhweba atholakalayo. Uzokwakha ukucabanga okungokwemvelo okunamandla kunezibalo ezivamile. Umthetho No. 7- Iphutha elikhulu kunawo wonke: "Lo mcimbi awusoze wenzeke emakethe yami." Okuningi okungakaze kwenzeke emakethe eyodwa kwenzeke kwenye. Iqiniso lokuthi umuntu akakaze afe ngaphambili alimenzi angafi. (Igama elifundiwe: Inkinga kaHume yokungeniswa). Umthetho No. 8- Ungawuweleli umfula ngoba ngokwesilinganiso ujule ngamafidi angu-4. Umthetho No. 9- Funda zonke izincwadi zabathengisi ukuze ufunde lapho belahlekelwe khona imali. Ngeke ufunde lutho olubalulekile enzuzweni yabo (izimakethe ziyashintsha). Uzofunda ekulahlekelweni kwabo.

* UNassim Nicholas Taleb

U-Nassim Nicholas Taleb ungumbhali wendatshana waseMelika waseLebanon, isazi nezibalo, umsebenzi wakhe ugxile ezinkingeni zokungahleliwe, okungenzeka nokungaqiniseki. Incwadi yakhe yango-2007 ethi The Black Swan yachazwa ekubuyekezweni kweSunday Times njengenye yezincwadi eziyishumi nambili ezinomthelela omkhulu kusukela ngeMpi Yezwe II. UTaleb ungumbhali othengisa kakhulu futhi uke waba nguprofesa emanyuvesi amaningana, okwamanje onguSolwazi Ohlonishwayo Wobunjiniyela Bezingozi e-New York University Polytechnic School of Engineering. Uphinde waba nguchwepheshe wezezimali zezibalo, umphathi we-hedge fund, umthengisi wokuphuma kokunye, futhi njengamanje ungumeluleki wesayensi e-Universa Investments kanye ne-International Monetary Fund. Ugxeke izindlela zokulawula ubungozi ezisetshenziswa imboni yezezimali waphinde waxwayisa ngezinkinga zezimali, okwabe sekulandela ukuzuza enkingeni yezimali ngasekupheleni kwawo-2000. Ukhuthaza lokho akubiza ngokuthi “umphakathi we-black swan robust”, okusho umphakathi okwazi ukumelana nezigigaba okunzima ukuzibikezela. Uhlongoza "ukulwa nobuthakathaka" ezinhlelweni, okungukuthi, ikhono lokuzuza nokukhula kusukela esigabeni esithile sezenzakalo ezingahleliwe, amaphutha, nokuguquguquka kanye "nokuxubha kwe-convex" njengendlela yokutholwa kwesayensi, okusho ukuthi ukuhlola okufana nokukhethwa kukho kuyadlula, ucwaningo oluqondisiwe.   

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