Eph 13 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-2797 • Amazwana Off endabeni emayelana ne-Euro
Izolo, kulandela izikhathi ezimbalwa lapho i-euro ibingakwazi ukuthola indawo, bekudlule isikhathi esanele ukunika izinkunzi ze-euro ukuzethemba nesibindi (esimisweni sase-US) sokuthenga ama-euro. I-EUR / USD ivaliwe ngo-1.3188, inzuzo engama-79 kusukela ngoLwesithathu kusihlwa.
Izimpahla, nazo ezisalele umhlangano osanda kuba yingozi njenge-euro, kwavela. Imininingwane yezomnotho yase-US yayixubekile, njengoba izimangalo zokuqala zaziphakeme kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelekile. Lokhu kubukeka njengokuhlanekezelwa kwezibalo?), Kepha ukusilela kwezohwebo bekukuncane kakhulu kunokulindelekile kokukhulisa okulindelwe kokukhula kwe-Q1 GDP.
Ukuvuselelwa kwe-EUR / USD kuqale ngesikhathi kushicilelwa imiphumela. Idatha yezomnotho yaseYurophu nombiko we-ECB wanyanga zonke awuzange ube nomthelela ekuhwebeni, njengoba okwakudala kwakuphelelwe yisikhathi kanti okwakamuva kwakungekho imininingwane emisha. Mayelana namabhange amakhulu, abaphathi abaningi beFed (uDudley, Raskin, Lacker noKocherlakota) bakhulume. Ababili bokugcina bahlala ezikhundleni zabo ze-hawkish, kepha okubaluleke kakhulu imibono yabanye emele ukubuka kwamanje iningi ngaphakathi kwe-FOMC.
I-NY Fed Governor Dudley onethonya (futhi owesabekayo) usasisekela isimo samanje senqubomgomo (amanani aphansi ngasekupheleni kuka-2014) njengoba kwenza umbusi u-Yellen ngayizolo, kepha akabonakali ekulungele ukuphokophela i-QE eyengeziwe emhlanganweni wango-Ephreli (okuyinto bekuyingozi). Uthe le mibiko yezomnotho ibiyisikhuthazo esithe xaxa sekwephuzile futhi “Ukululama kungagcina sekwenze kwaqina kancane.”
Ubuye waphakamisa ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi isimo sezulu sibe nomthelela embikweni odabukisayo wamaholo kaMashi. Vele, walinganisa la magama ngokuthi:
asiphumile ehlathini futhi nezinga labantu abangasebenzi lisephezulu ngendlela engamukeleki
Ngakho-ke, sicabanga ukuthi i-FOMC izokuma emhlanganweni wabo ngasekupheleni kwale nyanga bese ilinda ubufakazi obengeziwe ngaphambi kokugcina ithathe izinqumo mayelana nezinhlelo ezintsha zenqubomgomo. Abanye abahlaziyi bahumushe amazwi kaDudley njengama-dovish, lapho-ke kungenzeka ukuthi wayengumshayeli we-euro ovumayo, kepha asihlanganyeli kulowo mbono. Kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi imakethe isivele izibeke ezingeni lesinqumo esingaguquki se-FOMC kamuva kule nyanga.
ISingapore yayinezibalo eziqinile ze-GDP ezenze ukuthi ibhange elikhulu lazise izimakethe ukuthi lizovumela ukuqiniswa kwedola lasekhaya uma kuqhathaniswa nelaseMelika, okwenzeke ngokushesha. Mayelana nokukhishwa kwe-eco, imininingwane yaseYurophu ayinakulinganiswa, kepha ukuzethemba kwabathengi baseMelika kanye ne-CPI kungaba nomthelela uma bephambuka kakhulu ekuvumelaneni. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle futhi ukuzethemba kube kuzinzile. Ukuzethemba okunamandla nokwehla kancane kukwehla kwamandla emali kufanele kube nesizotha sedola.
Kodwa-ke, kungaba yinkulumo kaBernanke, ikhadi lasendle elinquma ngokuqondiswa kwanamuhla kwe-EUR / USD. Kodwa-ke, ngokulandela izinkulumo zikaDudley no-Yellen, asilindeli ukuthi uBernanke asimangaze ngokusikisela ukuthi olunye uhlelo lwe-QE kungenzeka luseduze. Uma kungamangaza kulokhu, idola lingathengiswa kakhulu.
Zonke lezi zinto ziyisikhwama esixubile. Ukuhamba izolo kwezinga eliphakeme le-euro kwakukuhle, kepha hhayi kohlobo okufanele ube nentshiseko ngakho, noma ngabe ezinye izinzuzo ezingezansi akufanele zimangaze. Ezinsukwini ezingaphambi kwezolo, i-euro ithengise ngokudabukisayo, ingakwazi ukusuka emazingeni asondele ku-1.3030.
Ngakho-ke, sibona izizathu ezimbalwa zokuba sibe ne-euro engazelelwe. Uma ukwesaba ngenkinga ye-euro kuphela, i-euro inganyuka iye phezulu, kepha ukumelana no-1.3386 kufanele kunikeze ithuba elihle lokufinyeza imali eyodwa futhi. Isikhathi eside, sithanda okunye ukwehla kwalaba bobabili, kepha kungadingeka ukudonswa ngamandla ukusunduza laba ababili ngaphansi kwendawo yokusekelwa ye-1.3004 / 1.2974, engavula indlela ebheke ku-1.2623 (ngoJanuwari ongaphansi).
eurusd
« Ukubuyekezwa Kwemakethe ngo-Ephreli 13 2012 Imininingwane Yezomnotho Kuleli Viki Elizayo »
Indaba Mayelana ne-Euro
Eph 13 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-2797 • Amazwana Off endabeni emayelana ne-Euro
Izolo, kulandela izikhathi ezimbalwa lapho i-euro ibingakwazi ukuthola indawo, bekudlule isikhathi esanele ukunika izinkunzi ze-euro ukuzethemba nesibindi (esimisweni sase-US) sokuthenga ama-euro. I-EUR / USD ivaliwe ngo-1.3188, inzuzo engama-79 kusukela ngoLwesithathu kusihlwa.
Izimpahla, nazo ezisalele umhlangano osanda kuba yingozi njenge-euro, kwavela. Imininingwane yezomnotho yase-US yayixubekile, njengoba izimangalo zokuqala zaziphakeme kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelekile. Lokhu kubukeka njengokuhlanekezelwa kwezibalo?), Kepha ukusilela kwezohwebo bekukuncane kakhulu kunokulindelekile kokukhulisa okulindelwe kokukhula kwe-Q1 GDP.
Ukuvuselelwa kwe-EUR / USD kuqale ngesikhathi kushicilelwa imiphumela. Idatha yezomnotho yaseYurophu nombiko we-ECB wanyanga zonke awuzange ube nomthelela ekuhwebeni, njengoba okwakudala kwakuphelelwe yisikhathi kanti okwakamuva kwakungekho imininingwane emisha. Mayelana namabhange amakhulu, abaphathi abaningi beFed (uDudley, Raskin, Lacker noKocherlakota) bakhulume. Ababili bokugcina bahlala ezikhundleni zabo ze-hawkish, kepha okubaluleke kakhulu imibono yabanye emele ukubuka kwamanje iningi ngaphakathi kwe-FOMC.
I-NY Fed Governor Dudley onethonya (futhi owesabekayo) usasisekela isimo samanje senqubomgomo (amanani aphansi ngasekupheleni kuka-2014) njengoba kwenza umbusi u-Yellen ngayizolo, kepha akabonakali ekulungele ukuphokophela i-QE eyengeziwe emhlanganweni wango-Ephreli (okuyinto bekuyingozi). Uthe le mibiko yezomnotho ibiyisikhuthazo esithe xaxa sekwephuzile futhi “Ukululama kungagcina sekwenze kwaqina kancane.”
Ubuye waphakamisa ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi isimo sezulu sibe nomthelela embikweni odabukisayo wamaholo kaMashi. Vele, walinganisa la magama ngokuthi:
asiphumile ehlathini futhi nezinga labantu abangasebenzi lisephezulu ngendlela engamukeleki
Ngakho-ke, sicabanga ukuthi i-FOMC izokuma emhlanganweni wabo ngasekupheleni kwale nyanga bese ilinda ubufakazi obengeziwe ngaphambi kokugcina ithathe izinqumo mayelana nezinhlelo ezintsha zenqubomgomo. Abanye abahlaziyi bahumushe amazwi kaDudley njengama-dovish, lapho-ke kungenzeka ukuthi wayengumshayeli we-euro ovumayo, kepha asihlanganyeli kulowo mbono. Kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi imakethe isivele izibeke ezingeni lesinqumo esingaguquki se-FOMC kamuva kule nyanga.
ISingapore yayinezibalo eziqinile ze-GDP ezenze ukuthi ibhange elikhulu lazise izimakethe ukuthi lizovumela ukuqiniswa kwedola lasekhaya uma kuqhathaniswa nelaseMelika, okwenzeke ngokushesha. Mayelana nokukhishwa kwe-eco, imininingwane yaseYurophu ayinakulinganiswa, kepha ukuzethemba kwabathengi baseMelika kanye ne-CPI kungaba nomthelela uma bephambuka kakhulu ekuvumelaneni. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle futhi ukuzethemba kube kuzinzile. Ukuzethemba okunamandla nokwehla kancane kukwehla kwamandla emali kufanele kube nesizotha sedola.
Kodwa-ke, kungaba yinkulumo kaBernanke, ikhadi lasendle elinquma ngokuqondiswa kwanamuhla kwe-EUR / USD. Kodwa-ke, ngokulandela izinkulumo zikaDudley no-Yellen, asilindeli ukuthi uBernanke asimangaze ngokusikisela ukuthi olunye uhlelo lwe-QE kungenzeka luseduze. Uma kungamangaza kulokhu, idola lingathengiswa kakhulu.
Zonke lezi zinto ziyisikhwama esixubile. Ukuhamba izolo kwezinga eliphakeme le-euro kwakukuhle, kepha hhayi kohlobo okufanele ube nentshiseko ngakho, noma ngabe ezinye izinzuzo ezingezansi akufanele zimangaze. Ezinsukwini ezingaphambi kwezolo, i-euro ithengise ngokudabukisayo, ingakwazi ukusuka emazingeni asondele ku-1.3030.
Ngakho-ke, sibona izizathu ezimbalwa zokuba sibe ne-euro engazelelwe. Uma ukwesaba ngenkinga ye-euro kuphela, i-euro inganyuka iye phezulu, kepha ukumelana no-1.3386 kufanele kunikeze ithuba elihle lokufinyeza imali eyodwa futhi. Isikhathi eside, sithanda okunye ukwehla kwalaba bobabili, kepha kungadingeka ukudonswa ngamandla ukusunduza laba ababili ngaphansi kwendawo yokusekelwa ye-1.3004 / 1.2974, engavula indlela ebheke ku-1.2623 (ngoJanuwari ongaphansi).
eurusd
« Ukubuyekezwa Kwemakethe ngo-Ephreli 13 2012 Imininingwane Yezomnotho Kuleli Viki Elizayo »