Izibalo zamanani emali zakamuva zeChina ne-USA zizohlolwa, phakathi nesonto lokuqala eligcwele lokuhweba lonyaka we-2018.
Isonto lokuqala eligcwele lokuhweba lika-2018 lifakazela ukubuyela emicimbini yekhalenda yezomnotho yendabuko eyenza izimakethe zethu: i-FX, ukulingana kanye nezimpahla. Kuyisonto elimatasa lemininingwane yamaShayina, i-USA kanye ne-Europe, okubandakanya izibalo ezithile zokwehla kwamandla emali, ikakhulukazi iChina ne-USA. Izibalo zakamuva zokukhiqiza zase-UK zizohlaziywa ngokucophelela, ukuthola noma yiziphi izimpawu zobuthakathaka bokuqhathanisa emnothweni njengoba ubhekene neBrexit ekuqaleni kuka-2019. Izibalo zakamuva zokungenisa nokuthekelisa zaseJalimane zizoshicilelwa, kanye nokukhula komkhiqizo wezimboni, okubhekwa ngokucophelela ngenxa engxenyeni yaseJalimane njengenjini yokukhula eYurophu. Amamethrikhi ahlukahlukene e-PPI ase-USA azodalulwa, angaletha izinkomba zakuqala maqondana nanoma yibaphi isibalo sokwenyuka kwamandla emali emnothweni wase-USA.
Sunday iqala isonto ngesibalo sakamuva semali ebekiwe yaseChina, okulindelwe ukwehla okuncane kuye ku- $ 3,115b ngoDisemba. Ngomsombuluko ekuseni sithola imethrikhi yakamuva ye-YoY yotshalomali lwangaphandle evela eChina, njengamanje ku-90.7% kunethemba elincane loshintsho olukhulu. Ama-oda efektri yaseGerman akhombise isibalo esikhuthazayo sonyaka sokukhula esingu-6.9% kuze kufike kuNovemba 2017, okulindelwe ukuthi lesi sibalo sigcinwe. Okwamanje iSwitzerland CPI isebenza ngo-0.8%, okuyisibalo okungenzeka ukuthi singashintsha uma sekukhishwe inani likaDisemba. Kuhlanganiswe nemininingwane yakamuva yokubona evela emabhange aseSwitzerland, zombili lezi zibalo zingathinta inani leSwitzerland franc, uma amamethrikhi ephuthelwa noma izibikezelo ezinhle kakhulu.
Ukufundwa kweqoqo le-Eurozone kushicilelwe ngoMsombuluko; umthengi, imboni, ibhizinisi kanye nomtshali-zimali, yize zibalwa njengezinomthelela ophansi, ukufundwa okuqoqwayo kubhekwa ngeso elibukhali. Ukuthengiswa kwe-Eurozone kwehlele endaweni engeyinhle ngoNovemba, ukufundwa kukaDisemba kufanele kube kuhle futhi kube nomphumela wokukhuphuka kwesibalo se-YoY, ngaphezu kwe-0.4% erekhodwe ngoNovemba. Njengoba ukunakwa kuphendukela e-USA ukufundwa kokhiye kosuku kuyisikweletu sabathengi; kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ku- $ 18b ngoNovemba kusuka ku- $ 20.5b ngo-Okthoba. Isibalo senyanga ezayo kungenzeka sikhuphuke, ngenxa yesikhathi seholide esetshenziswa umthengi.
NgoLwesibili kuqala ngokuthengiswa kwendlu kusuka ku-NZ, okwehle ngokumangalisayo -8.9% YoY kuze kube nguDisemba. Imali engenayo yemali yabasebenzi baseJapan kulindeleke ukuthi ingahambi kahle ngoNovemba ngo -0.1%. Ngemali etholakalayo ikhuphuka ngo-0.6% YoY. Ukuzethemba kwabathengi eJapan kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kancane kuye ku-45. Ukugunyazwa kwezakhiwo e-Australia kukhuphuke kakhulu i-YoY, kukhuphuke ngo-18.4% kuya kuNovemba, isibalo sakamuva sikaDisemba akulindelekile ukuthi sehle kakhulu. Ukufundwa kukaDisemba kwabangasebenzi eSwitzerland kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kungashintshiwe ku-3.2%, ukuthengiswa kwezitolo kwehle kakhulu eSwitzerland ngoNovemba, kwehla -3%, kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthukiswe izinkathi ezithile zonyaka.
Ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni zaseJalimane ngokungalindelekile kwehle ngoNovemba ngo -1.4%, naku-2.7% YoY, kulindeleke ukuthi kwenziwe ngcono. Ibhalansi yezohwebo yaseJalimane yaseNovemba kanye nemali eseleyo ye-akhawunti kulindeleke ukuthi ithuthuke ngaphezu kokufundwa okungaba ngu- € 18b ngo-Okthoba. Ukuthunyelwa kwamuva kanye namamethrikhi wokungenisa eJalimane nawo ayashicilelwa. Izinga lakamuva lokungasebenzi kwabantu e-Eurozone njengamanje liku-8.8%, okuyizinga eliphezulu kakhulu kuze kube manje ngoNovemba kulindeleke ukuthi lihlale lingashintshiwe.
Ngolwesithathu kushicilelwa iqoqo lemininingwane yaseChina, kufaka phakathi imali ebolekwe ku-Yuan ngoDisemba kanye nenombolo yakamuva ye-CPI, njengamanje eku-1.7% isibikezelo sokwenyuka sibe yi-1.9%. Idatha yomthelela omkhulu waseShayina iba nomthelela omncane kakhulu ekulinganisweni komhlaba wonke nasezimakethe zeFX kamuva nje, ngaphandle kokuthi isibalo esikhishwe sishaqise. Njengoba kugxilwa ekuvulekeni kwezimakethe zaseYurophu, kushicilelwa imizuzu yomhlangano wakamuva wenqubomgomo yezimali / amazinga wokuhlelwa kwamanani, abatshalizimali bazohlaziya okuqukethwe nganoma yikuphi ukuholwa phambili, maqondana nokwehliswa kwe-APP (uhlelo lokuthengwa kwempahla), ngaphezulu futhi ngaphezu kokuzibophezela osekuvele kwenziwe, noma izinkomba eziphathelene nezinga lenzalo elingaba khona lenyuka ngo-2018.
Kuyiseshini ematasa ngokwedlulele yemininingwane yase-UK ngoLwesithathu, izibalo zalokhu: ukukhishwa kwezimboni, ezokukhiqiza nokwakha kungaveza nokuhlala isikhathi eside ukungabaza nokulimala kweBrexit. Ukushoda kwamabhalansi ezohwebo ezahlukahlukene ngoNovemba nakho kuyashicilelwa e-UK, njengoba kunjalo nangesilinganiso sakamuva sikaDisemba NIESR sokukhula kwe-GDP yase-UK, isilinganiso esedlule bekungu-0.5% QoQ.
NgoLwesithathu futhi lusuku olumatasa ngokweqile lokushicilelwa kanye nemicimbi yekhalenda lezomnotho lase-USA; ukungenisa amanani entengo, ukuthunyelwa kwamanani entengo, uhlu lwezinto ezidayiswayo nokuthengiswa kwezebhizinisi. Izintengo zakamuva ezingcolile kanye negesi kuze kube ngumhla ziyi-5 kuJanuwari zizophinde zishicilelwe futhi lapho i-WTI yephula ama- $ 61 emgqonyeni ngamunye okokuqala ngqa kusukela ngonyaka wezi-2015, isibalo sohlu lwamafutha sizobhekwa ngeso elibukhali. Isikhulu se-USA Fed uBullard uzokwethula inkulumo ngombono wezomnotho wase-USA, eSt.
NgoLwesine zifakazela izibalo zakamuva zokuthengisa ezidayiswa ngoNovemba e-Australia ezishicilelwe, kulindeleke ukuthi zenze ukufundwa okufana nezinga lokukhula elingu-0.5% elivezwe ngo-Okthoba. Ukuthengiswa kwamuva kwamabhondi eJapan kuzokwenzeka ngoLwesine ekuseni, ngemuva kwalokho kushicilelwa izinkomba ezihamba phambili neziqondanisayo zeJapan. Ukufundwa kweGDP minyaka yonke yaseGerman ngoDisemba kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kungashintshiwe, kusukela ekufundweni kwakamuva okungu-1.9%, ngenkathi isibalo sokukhiqizwa kwezimboni ze-Eurozone isibalo sokukhula sikaYove ngoNovemba kufanele sisondele ku-3.7% owaqoshwa ngaphambilini. I-UK BoE izoletha izimo zayo zakamuva zesikweletu kanye nocwaningo lwezikweletu, abahlaziyi bezimakethe kanye nabatshalizimali bazocubungula ukushicilelwa bese belalela okuqukethwe ngokucophelela, ukuthola imikhombandlela yokuqondisa phambili yokuthi ibhange eliphakathi liwubheka kanjani umthelela ongaba khona weBrexit emnothweni wase-UK futhi yiziphi izinyathelo ibhange elingazenza ukunciphisa noma yimuphi umonakalo.
Kusuka e-USA sizokwamukela izibalo zakamuva, ezahlukahlukene ze-PPI, ezikhomba ukuthi ngabe i-USA iyakha yini ingcindezi yokwenyuka kwamandla emali noma umfutho ngokwenyuka kwezindleko zokungeniswa kwempahla ezweni, ngaleyo ndlela kukhuphuke amanani entengo. Idatha yokuqala yezicelo zezicelo ezingenamsebenzi futhi eqhubekayo nayo izokhishwa, futhi kusihlwa kakhulu isikhulu seFed uDudley wethula inkulumo ngombono wezomnotho jikelele we-USA.
Ngolwesihlanu ekuseni, ngesikhathi seseshini yase-Asia, kushicilelwa izibalo zakamuva zaseChina ku: ukungenisa ngaphakathi ezweni, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye nebhalansi yokuhweba ngoDisemba. I-raft yedatha emnothweni wase-USA ishicilelwa ntambama, kufaka phakathi izibalo zakamuva, ezahlukahlukene ze-CPI, njalo ngenyanga nonyaka. Njengamanje isebenza ku-2.2% naku-1.7% (ngaphandle kokudla namandla), lezi zibalo zizobhekelwa kakhulu ukuthola ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuka esikhathini esifushane, kuzokhuthaza i-FOMC / Fed ukuthi inyuse amanani ngaphambi kwesikhathi esasibikezelwe ngo-2018. ukwehlela ku-0.3% ngoDisemba, kusuka ku-0.8% ngoNovemba. Idatha yezimpahla zebhizinisi izoshicilelwa futhi isonto lokuhweba livalwa nge-Baker Hughes rig count, ngaphansi kokuhlolisiswa okwandayo, ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamanani kawoyela we-WTI emasontweni adlule.
« Ngabe ukukhishwa kokuqala kwe-NFP kwe-2018 kuzoqhubeka nokuthambekela kwakamuva kwezindaba zezomnotho eziyisisekelo ezise-USA? Inkomba yeDow Jones yephula ama-25,000, i-UK FTSE 100 nayo ivala ngokurekhodile, igolide lifinyelela ezinyangeni ezine ukuphakama, i-euro ihlangabezana nezikhathi ezixubekile uma iqhathaniswa nontanga abakhulu. »
