UJan 16 • Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 6108 izimvo • 1 Comment kwi-UK ibuyile kuqoqosho ayizange iphume
I-UK ibuyile kuRhwebo ayizange iphume. Ngokwenyani i-USA ayifani
Inkcazo yokwehla kwemali itshintshile kule minyaka idlulileyo kwaye iyahluka ngokwelizwe ukuya kwilizwekazi nakwilizwekazi. E-UK Ukudodobala koqoqosho kuchazwa njengamaxesha amabini alandelelanayo okukhula okungalunganga. E-USA i-Business Cycle Dating Committee ye-National Bureau yoPhando lwezoQoqosho (NBER) ibonwa njengegunya lokuthandana nokudodobala kwemali e-US. I-NBER ichaza ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho njenge:
ukwehla okukhulu kwimisebenzi yezoqoqosho ekusasazeni kuqoqosho lonke, kuhlala ngaphezulu kweenyanga ezimbalwa, kuhlala kubonakala kwi-GDP yokwenyani, ingeniso yokwenyani, ingqesho, imveliso yemizi-mveliso, kunye nentengiso yevenkile ethengisa ukuthengisa.
Phantse kwindalo iphela, izifundiswa, ezoqoqosho, abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo, kunye namashishini bayarhoxisa ekuzimiseleni yi-NBER malunga nokuthandana ngokuchanekileyo kokuqala nokudodobala koqoqosho. Ngamafutshane ukuba ukukhula 'kuhamba kakubi' e-USA ke ilizwe likwimeko yokudodobala koqoqosho.
Ngokwezifundo zezoqoqosho, ukusukela ngo-1854, i-US ibikhe yahlangabezana nemijikelezo engama-32 yokwandiswa kunye nokucutha, ngomyinge weenyanga ezili-17 zokuncipha kunye neenyanga ezingama-38 zokwandiswa. Nangona kunjalo, ukusukela ngo-1980 kubekho amaxesha asibhozo kuphela okukhula okungalunganga koqoqosho ngaphezulu kwekota enye yezemali okanye nangaphezulu, kwaye amaxesha amane athathelwa ingqalelo njengokwehla kwemali.
Ukubuyela e-USA ukusukela ngo-1980
Julayi 1981-Novemba 1982: iinyanga ezili-14
Julayi 1990-Matshi 1991: iinyanga ezi-8
Ngomhla ka-Matshi 2001-Novemba 2001: iinyanga ezisi-8
Disemba 2007-Juni 2009: iinyanga ezili-18
Kumathuba amathathu okudodobala, isigqibo se-NBER siphantse sahambelana nenkcazo ebandakanya iikota ezimbini ezilandelelanayo zokwehla. Ngelixa uqoqosho lwango-2001 lwalungabandakanyi iikota ezimbini ezilandelelanayo zokwehla, kwakukhokelwa ziikota ezimbini zokwehla kokutshintsha nokukhula okubuthathaka. Ukwehla kwamandla emali e-US ngo-2007 kwaphela ngoJuni, ngo-2009 njengoko ilizwe lalingena kwimeko yezoqoqosho.
Izinga lentswela-ngqesho e-US lakhula laya kwi-8.5 yeepesenti ngo-Matshi 2009, kwaye kwabakho ukulahleka kwemisebenzi okunesigidi esi-5.1 kwada kwafika ngo-Matshi 2009 okoko ukwehla kwezomnotho kwaqala ngo-Disemba ka-2007. Ukutsiba konyaka kwenani labantu abangasebenziyo ukusukela ngeminyaka yoo-1940.
Ukubuya kwe-UK ukusukela ngo-1970
Phakathi kwiminyaka yoo-1970 ukudodobala koqoqosho ngo-1973-5, iminyaka emi-2 (i-6 kwi-9 Qtr). Kuthathwe iikota ezili-14 ze-GDP ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqalo emva koqoqosho emva 'kokuntywiliselwa kabini'.
Ekuqaleni kweminyaka yama-1980 ukwehla kwemali ngo-1980 ukuya ku-1982, iminyaka emibini (2-6 Qtr). Ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kunyuke nge-7% ukusuka kwi-124% yabantu abasebenzayo ngo-Agasti 5.3 ukuya kwi-1979% ngo-11.9. Wathatha iikota ezili-1984 ze-GDP ukuze abuyele kuloo nto ekuqaleni konyaka ka-13.
Ekuqaleni kweminyaka yama-1990 ukwehla kwemali ngo-1990-2 iminyaka eyi-1.25 (5 Qtr). Intsilelo yohlahlo-lwabiwo mali oluphezulu 8% ye-GDP. Intswela-ngqesho inyuke ngama-55% isuka kwi-6.9% yabantu abasebenzayo ngo-1990 ukuya kwi-10.7% ngo-1993. Kuthathwe iikota ezili-13 ze-GDP ukuze ibuyele kwimeko leyo ekuqaleni komnotho.
Ukuphela komhla wokudodobala ko-2000, iminyaka eyi-1.5, iikota ezi-6. Iziphumo zehla nge-0.5% ngo-2010 Q4. Izinga lentswela-ngqesho laqala lenyuka laya kwi-8.1% (2.57m yabantu) ngo-Agasti ka-2011, elona nqanaba liphezulu ukusukela ngo-1994, emva koko ke liye lagqitha. Ukusukela ngo-Okthobha u-2011, emva kwekota ye-14, i-GDP isese-4% isezantsi ukusuka kwincopho yokuqala yokudodobala koqoqosho.
Indlela 'yokuThenga' ngayo
Amanani okwehla kwamandla emali e-USA ngo-2008/2009 abonisa indlela emi ngayo i-USA kwaye incinci kangakanani 'inkqubela phambili' esele yenziwe. Ngaphandle kwalo lonke uhlobo lokuchaphazeleka nokungahambisi gwenxa inyani kukuba i-USA isekuqoqosho. Ngo-Matshi 2009 intswela-ngqesho ibiyi-8.5%, namhlanje yi-8.5%. Ngo-Matshi 2009 i-5.1 yezigidi ilahlekelwe yimisebenzi, uqikelelo ngoku lubonisa ukuba zizigidi ezili-9.0 zelahleko yemisebenzi ukusukela ngo-2007-2012. Ngaphandle kwemizamo yokuyijikeleza ngenye indlela akukho zinto zinje 'njengokuphola kungabikho misebenzi', i-USA isaxinene kumsele wokudodobala koqoqosho okunzulu. I-USA iyakudinga ukudala i-circa engama-400,000 yemisebenzi ngenyanga kwisithuba seminyaka emithathu, ukuze ibuyele kumanqanaba engqesho ka-2007.
Iinyani kunye namanani, ngokunxulumene nokuhlangulwa, ukuhlangulwa kunye neenkqubo zokunciphisa izinto e-USA, ziye zadliswa okanye zanyanzeliswa ngenxa yongenelelo lweBloomberg ngeenkundla. Ukuhamba ecaleni kwala manani ukuhlawulwa kwetyala akuzange kufihlwe. Ubulumko obufunyenweyo kukuba kwiidola ezimbini zokukhula i-USA 'ithenge' iidola ezisibhozo zetyala. Ukuyeka umqobo wokwenene wamandla okuthenga oku kubangeleyo, ngenxa yokuhla kwamandla emali efihliweyo, ubungqina bokuhlawulwa kwetyala bukho bumnyama nomhlophe malunga nendlela yokubuyisela kwimeko ekungeyonyani ngayo.
Ukuhlawulwa kwetyala kuphakanyiswe ngaphezulu kwama-40% ukusukela ngo-2008. Uqikelelo lubonisa ukuba inyuswe imali engange- $ 5.2 yezigidi zeerandi ukuze kufunyanwe 'ukubuyiswa', okubuyayo okusabona owona mlinganiso ucothayo (U3) wokungabikho kwemisebenzi ubuyile apho uqale khona. , nge-8.5%. Ngaphandle kwako konke ukuhlangulwa kunye nokuhlangulwa (ngokufihlakeleyo okanye okupapashiweyo) iinkqubo 'zetarp' kunye nokufakwa kwamatyala kuphakamisa i-USA ithe tyaba, ergo ayikaze iphume ekudodobeni kwemali, umsebenzi wobudlelwane noluntu ophinda phindiweyo.
Thelekisa i-UK ifana ngokumangalisayo, njengeYurophu. Izinga lokungaqeshwa e-UK likwi-8.5%, ukanti inani labantu abangaphangeliyo bakumanqanaba aphezulu kwiminyaka elishumi elinesixhenxe kwaye ngokophando lukaRhulumente kukho amakhaya azizigidi ezi-3.9 angenawo 'umvuzo. Kukho malunga ne-4.8 ml yabantu abadala base-UK ngaphandle kwezibonelelo zomsebenzi kunye nemisebenzi engama-400,000 ekhoyo ngalo naliphi na ixesha. Kwaye ngokuqeshwa kwe-circa ezingama-20 ezigidi ukubakho kwemisebenzi kubonisa inqanaba eliqhelekileyo leenkcukacha 'ze-churn', 2%. Ngokufana ne-USA, kodwa kwinqanaba elincinci, bobabini abaphathi base-UK bazamile 'ukuthenga indlela yokuphuma', beshiya i-UK kunye nomlinganiso odityanisiweyo we-GDP v ityala elingaphezulu kwe-900%, eyona imbi kakhulu eYurophu (njengecala) Kutheni uninzi lwabaphengululi kunye nabapolitiki baseYurophu bebuza umlinganiso we-AAA yase-UK.
http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimony/12-15-11_TARP_Sanders_Testimony.pdf
Iinyani zase-UK nase-USA kukuba azikaze zishiye uqoqosho, kwaye abaninzi bacebisile (emva kwesiganeko sonyaka ka-2008) ukuzama ukunqanda ukudodobala kwamagunya amiselwe amazwe omabini kuxinzelelo njengombuso ongakhange ubonwe ukusukela oko ngeminyaka yee-1930.
Ukuba ndingaboleka ibinzana laseMelika i-UK, iinkokheli zopolitiko zase-Yurophu nase-USA kufuneka 'bafe' kuluntu lwabo malunga nemeko yangoku. Ngelixa kunyulo lwexeshana elifutshane kuyinjongo yabo inyani ihleli kukuba yonke imimandla ihleli 'kuluhlu' lwezoqoqosho iminyaka emine. Ngaphandle kokungeniswa okukhulu kwendalo yemali engqinelweyo ukusukela oko inkqubo yasebhankini yanamhlanje yaziswa 'ngokukhula', njengoko kulinganiswa zizinto ezisetyenziswa kakhulu; imisebenzi, ubunewunewu, ulondolozo oluncinci, khange yenzeke.
Ukuba sihlutha iipakethe zokuhlangula zizonke kwaye sizihoya izibonelelo ezithandabuzekayo, i-USA ngoku ngokuqinisekileyo iyinyanga yayo yama-48 yokwehla kwamandla emali, i-UK ne-Yurophu bakwi-35-37th yabo, okwenza oku kudodobala kube lelona libi kumaxesha anamhlanje 'abhaliweyo'. Bobathathu abalawuli banokufuna ukuqwalasela ukuba nengxoxo ethembekileyo nengafihlisiyo nabantu abaza kubonyula ngaphambi kokuba ukwahlukana phakathi kwenyani kunye nokujikeleza kube yinto engenakulinganiswa njengamanani abo adibeneyo nalahlekisayo.
recessionuki-USA
« Ngaba i-UK ibuyile kuRhwebo? Njengoko i-EFSF yehlisiwe ukuba ngaba yinto emiselweyo yamaGrike ngoku ayinakuphepheka? »
I-UK ibuyile kuRhwebo ayizange iphume
UJan 16 • Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 6108 izimvo • 1 Comment kwi-UK ibuyile kuqoqosho ayizange iphume
I-UK ibuyile kuRhwebo ayizange iphume. Ngokwenyani i-USA ayifani
Inkcazo yokwehla kwemali itshintshile kule minyaka idlulileyo kwaye iyahluka ngokwelizwe ukuya kwilizwekazi nakwilizwekazi. E-UK Ukudodobala koqoqosho kuchazwa njengamaxesha amabini alandelelanayo okukhula okungalunganga. E-USA i-Business Cycle Dating Committee ye-National Bureau yoPhando lwezoQoqosho (NBER) ibonwa njengegunya lokuthandana nokudodobala kwemali e-US. I-NBER ichaza ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho njenge:
ukwehla okukhulu kwimisebenzi yezoqoqosho ekusasazeni kuqoqosho lonke, kuhlala ngaphezulu kweenyanga ezimbalwa, kuhlala kubonakala kwi-GDP yokwenyani, ingeniso yokwenyani, ingqesho, imveliso yemizi-mveliso, kunye nentengiso yevenkile ethengisa ukuthengisa.
Phantse kwindalo iphela, izifundiswa, ezoqoqosho, abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo, kunye namashishini bayarhoxisa ekuzimiseleni yi-NBER malunga nokuthandana ngokuchanekileyo kokuqala nokudodobala koqoqosho. Ngamafutshane ukuba ukukhula 'kuhamba kakubi' e-USA ke ilizwe likwimeko yokudodobala koqoqosho.
Ngokwezifundo zezoqoqosho, ukusukela ngo-1854, i-US ibikhe yahlangabezana nemijikelezo engama-32 yokwandiswa kunye nokucutha, ngomyinge weenyanga ezili-17 zokuncipha kunye neenyanga ezingama-38 zokwandiswa. Nangona kunjalo, ukusukela ngo-1980 kubekho amaxesha asibhozo kuphela okukhula okungalunganga koqoqosho ngaphezulu kwekota enye yezemali okanye nangaphezulu, kwaye amaxesha amane athathelwa ingqalelo njengokwehla kwemali.
Ukubuyela e-USA ukusukela ngo-1980
Julayi 1981-Novemba 1982: iinyanga ezili-14
Julayi 1990-Matshi 1991: iinyanga ezi-8
Ngomhla ka-Matshi 2001-Novemba 2001: iinyanga ezisi-8
Disemba 2007-Juni 2009: iinyanga ezili-18
Kumathuba amathathu okudodobala, isigqibo se-NBER siphantse sahambelana nenkcazo ebandakanya iikota ezimbini ezilandelelanayo zokwehla. Ngelixa uqoqosho lwango-2001 lwalungabandakanyi iikota ezimbini ezilandelelanayo zokwehla, kwakukhokelwa ziikota ezimbini zokwehla kokutshintsha nokukhula okubuthathaka. Ukwehla kwamandla emali e-US ngo-2007 kwaphela ngoJuni, ngo-2009 njengoko ilizwe lalingena kwimeko yezoqoqosho.
Izinga lentswela-ngqesho e-US lakhula laya kwi-8.5 yeepesenti ngo-Matshi 2009, kwaye kwabakho ukulahleka kwemisebenzi okunesigidi esi-5.1 kwada kwafika ngo-Matshi 2009 okoko ukwehla kwezomnotho kwaqala ngo-Disemba ka-2007. Ukutsiba konyaka kwenani labantu abangasebenziyo ukusukela ngeminyaka yoo-1940.
Ukubuya kwe-UK ukusukela ngo-1970
Phakathi kwiminyaka yoo-1970 ukudodobala koqoqosho ngo-1973-5, iminyaka emi-2 (i-6 kwi-9 Qtr). Kuthathwe iikota ezili-14 ze-GDP ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqalo emva koqoqosho emva 'kokuntywiliselwa kabini'.
Ekuqaleni kweminyaka yama-1980 ukwehla kwemali ngo-1980 ukuya ku-1982, iminyaka emibini (2-6 Qtr). Ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kunyuke nge-7% ukusuka kwi-124% yabantu abasebenzayo ngo-Agasti 5.3 ukuya kwi-1979% ngo-11.9. Wathatha iikota ezili-1984 ze-GDP ukuze abuyele kuloo nto ekuqaleni konyaka ka-13.
Ekuqaleni kweminyaka yama-1990 ukwehla kwemali ngo-1990-2 iminyaka eyi-1.25 (5 Qtr). Intsilelo yohlahlo-lwabiwo mali oluphezulu 8% ye-GDP. Intswela-ngqesho inyuke ngama-55% isuka kwi-6.9% yabantu abasebenzayo ngo-1990 ukuya kwi-10.7% ngo-1993. Kuthathwe iikota ezili-13 ze-GDP ukuze ibuyele kwimeko leyo ekuqaleni komnotho.
Ukuphela komhla wokudodobala ko-2000, iminyaka eyi-1.5, iikota ezi-6. Iziphumo zehla nge-0.5% ngo-2010 Q4. Izinga lentswela-ngqesho laqala lenyuka laya kwi-8.1% (2.57m yabantu) ngo-Agasti ka-2011, elona nqanaba liphezulu ukusukela ngo-1994, emva koko ke liye lagqitha. Ukusukela ngo-Okthobha u-2011, emva kwekota ye-14, i-GDP isese-4% isezantsi ukusuka kwincopho yokuqala yokudodobala koqoqosho.
Indlela 'yokuThenga' ngayo
Amanani okwehla kwamandla emali e-USA ngo-2008/2009 abonisa indlela emi ngayo i-USA kwaye incinci kangakanani 'inkqubela phambili' esele yenziwe. Ngaphandle kwalo lonke uhlobo lokuchaphazeleka nokungahambisi gwenxa inyani kukuba i-USA isekuqoqosho. Ngo-Matshi 2009 intswela-ngqesho ibiyi-8.5%, namhlanje yi-8.5%. Ngo-Matshi 2009 i-5.1 yezigidi ilahlekelwe yimisebenzi, uqikelelo ngoku lubonisa ukuba zizigidi ezili-9.0 zelahleko yemisebenzi ukusukela ngo-2007-2012. Ngaphandle kwemizamo yokuyijikeleza ngenye indlela akukho zinto zinje 'njengokuphola kungabikho misebenzi', i-USA isaxinene kumsele wokudodobala koqoqosho okunzulu. I-USA iyakudinga ukudala i-circa engama-400,000 yemisebenzi ngenyanga kwisithuba seminyaka emithathu, ukuze ibuyele kumanqanaba engqesho ka-2007.
Iinyani kunye namanani, ngokunxulumene nokuhlangulwa, ukuhlangulwa kunye neenkqubo zokunciphisa izinto e-USA, ziye zadliswa okanye zanyanzeliswa ngenxa yongenelelo lweBloomberg ngeenkundla. Ukuhamba ecaleni kwala manani ukuhlawulwa kwetyala akuzange kufihlwe. Ubulumko obufunyenweyo kukuba kwiidola ezimbini zokukhula i-USA 'ithenge' iidola ezisibhozo zetyala. Ukuyeka umqobo wokwenene wamandla okuthenga oku kubangeleyo, ngenxa yokuhla kwamandla emali efihliweyo, ubungqina bokuhlawulwa kwetyala bukho bumnyama nomhlophe malunga nendlela yokubuyisela kwimeko ekungeyonyani ngayo.
Ukuhlawulwa kwetyala kuphakanyiswe ngaphezulu kwama-40% ukusukela ngo-2008. Uqikelelo lubonisa ukuba inyuswe imali engange- $ 5.2 yezigidi zeerandi ukuze kufunyanwe 'ukubuyiswa', okubuyayo okusabona owona mlinganiso ucothayo (U3) wokungabikho kwemisebenzi ubuyile apho uqale khona. , nge-8.5%. Ngaphandle kwako konke ukuhlangulwa kunye nokuhlangulwa (ngokufihlakeleyo okanye okupapashiweyo) iinkqubo 'zetarp' kunye nokufakwa kwamatyala kuphakamisa i-USA ithe tyaba, ergo ayikaze iphume ekudodobeni kwemali, umsebenzi wobudlelwane noluntu ophinda phindiweyo.
Thelekisa i-UK ifana ngokumangalisayo, njengeYurophu. Izinga lokungaqeshwa e-UK likwi-8.5%, ukanti inani labantu abangaphangeliyo bakumanqanaba aphezulu kwiminyaka elishumi elinesixhenxe kwaye ngokophando lukaRhulumente kukho amakhaya azizigidi ezi-3.9 angenawo 'umvuzo. Kukho malunga ne-4.8 ml yabantu abadala base-UK ngaphandle kwezibonelelo zomsebenzi kunye nemisebenzi engama-400,000 ekhoyo ngalo naliphi na ixesha. Kwaye ngokuqeshwa kwe-circa ezingama-20 ezigidi ukubakho kwemisebenzi kubonisa inqanaba eliqhelekileyo leenkcukacha 'ze-churn', 2%. Ngokufana ne-USA, kodwa kwinqanaba elincinci, bobabini abaphathi base-UK bazamile 'ukuthenga indlela yokuphuma', beshiya i-UK kunye nomlinganiso odityanisiweyo we-GDP v ityala elingaphezulu kwe-900%, eyona imbi kakhulu eYurophu (njengecala) Kutheni uninzi lwabaphengululi kunye nabapolitiki baseYurophu bebuza umlinganiso we-AAA yase-UK.
http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimony/12-15-11_TARP_Sanders_Testimony.pdf
Iinyani zase-UK nase-USA kukuba azikaze zishiye uqoqosho, kwaye abaninzi bacebisile (emva kwesiganeko sonyaka ka-2008) ukuzama ukunqanda ukudodobala kwamagunya amiselwe amazwe omabini kuxinzelelo njengombuso ongakhange ubonwe ukusukela oko ngeminyaka yee-1930.
Ukuba ndingaboleka ibinzana laseMelika i-UK, iinkokheli zopolitiko zase-Yurophu nase-USA kufuneka 'bafe' kuluntu lwabo malunga nemeko yangoku. Ngelixa kunyulo lwexeshana elifutshane kuyinjongo yabo inyani ihleli kukuba yonke imimandla ihleli 'kuluhlu' lwezoqoqosho iminyaka emine. Ngaphandle kokungeniswa okukhulu kwendalo yemali engqinelweyo ukusukela oko inkqubo yasebhankini yanamhlanje yaziswa 'ngokukhula', njengoko kulinganiswa zizinto ezisetyenziswa kakhulu; imisebenzi, ubunewunewu, ulondolozo oluncinci, khange yenzeke.
Ukuba sihlutha iipakethe zokuhlangula zizonke kwaye sizihoya izibonelelo ezithandabuzekayo, i-USA ngoku ngokuqinisekileyo iyinyanga yayo yama-48 yokwehla kwamandla emali, i-UK ne-Yurophu bakwi-35-37th yabo, okwenza oku kudodobala kube lelona libi kumaxesha anamhlanje 'abhaliweyo'. Bobathathu abalawuli banokufuna ukuqwalasela ukuba nengxoxo ethembekileyo nengafihlisiyo nabantu abaza kubonyula ngaphambi kokuba ukwahlukana phakathi kwenyani kunye nokujikeleza kube yinto engenakulinganiswa njengamanani abo adibeneyo nalahlekisayo.
recessionuki-USA
« Ngaba i-UK ibuyile kuRhwebo? Njengoko i-EFSF yehlisiwe ukuba ngaba yinto emiselweyo yamaGrike ngoku ayinakuphepheka? »