Inani le-Eurozone GDP elikhutshwe ngoLwesibini, linokuyalela umgaqo-nkqubo we-ECB kwi-2018
NgoLwesibini kusasa yiseshoni exakeke ngokumangalisayo yokukhutshwa kwekhalenda yezoqoqosho. Ngaphambi kokudlulela kwinqaku eliphambili losuku; I-GDP ye-Eurozone, kubalulekile ukuba sihlawule ngokukhawuleza zonke ezinye izinto ezikhutshiweyo ezenzeka, okanye ngaphambi kwentsimbi ye-10:00am GMT.
I-GDP yaseJamani yamva nje ishicilelwe, ekulindeleke ukuba ifike kwi-2.3% yokukhula kweYoY kwi-Q3, oku kuya kubonisa ukuphuculwa kwe-2.1% ebhalwe kwi-Q2. Ukuba ihambelana nokukhula okuqinileyo xa kupapashwa inani elibanzi le-Eurozone GDP, inani linokubonelela ngentembeko kubenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo wezemali kunye nezezimali ze-Eurozone, ukwenza uhlengahlengiso kwi-2018. ukuchacha ngamandla; I-GDP iqikelelwa ukuba ifike kwi-1.7% ye-Q3, isuka kwi-1.5% kwi-Q2. Njengoqoqosho oluphambili lwemveliso kunye nokuthengisa ngaphandle, kunye neebhanki nazo zidlala indima ebalulekileyo, igalelo le-Italiya kuhlumo lwe-Eurozone kufuneka lingahoywa.
Uqoqosho lwase-UK luya kuza phantsi kwe-microscope ngoLwesibini njengoko amanani okunyuka kwamaxabiso akutshanje akhululwa, ukufundwa okubalaseleyo yi-metric ye-CPI. Okulindelekileyo kukuba i-CPI iya kuba inyuke iye kwi-3.1% YOY ngo-Oktobha, ukusuka kwi-3% erekhodwe ngoSeptemba. Ibhanki ephakathi yase-UK i-BoE inyuse amaxabiso asezantsi kwi-0.25% ukuya kwi-0.5% ekuqaleni kwale nyanga (ngoNovemba 2nd), kumzamo wokulwa noxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Balindele ukunyuka kweponti xa kuthelekiswa noontanga babo ngokunyuka kweqondo lenzala, ukuze kuthotywe ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuthenga kumazwe angaphandle.
Nangona kunjalo, i-pound ayiphumelelanga ukunyuka, ngenxa yokuba ukunyuka kwezinga lesiseko sele kuthengiwe, ngenxa yesikhokelo esikhutshwe ngaphambili kunye nenkcazo ehamba kunye ne-BoE, eyacebisa ukuba ukunyuka kwe-0.25% kuya kuba yinto enye; ukunyuka bekungeke kubonise umpu wokudubula kwinqanaba lesiseko ukuba liphakanyiswe ngokucwangcisiweyo kwi-2018. I-input inflation ye-UK iqikelele ukunciphisa ngokukhawuleza ukusuka kwi-8.4% ukuya kwi-4.7%, oku kukwamanani abahlalutyi kufuneka banikele ingqalelo ngokukhawuleza, njengoko idityaniswe ne-CPI metric, ibonisa ukuba i-UK ingenisa uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Njengoko siqhubela phambili kwidatha ye-Eurozone uphando lwamva nje lwe-ZEW lwaseJamani kunye ne-Eurozone zinikezelwe kwimeko yangoku kunye nemeko yezoqoqosho, ngelixa indibano enika umdla yeenkosi zebhanki enguvimba isenzeka ngohlobo lwephaneli ye-ECB; UYellen, uDraghi, uKuroda noCarney, abadibana kwaye bathethe eFrankfurt.
Intsasa yethu ephefumlayo yokukhutshwa okusisiseko kweYurophu, kuvalwa njengoko le ntlanganiso iqhubeka, ngokukhululwa kwenani lamva nje le-Q3 ye-Eurozone GDP. Okulindelekileyo kukuba inani le-Q3 lirekhode ukukhula kwe-0.6%, kunye nenani le-YoY ligcina ukukhula okumangalisayo kwe-2.5%. Ukuba iJamani, i-Italiya kunye noshicilelo lwe-Eurozone lukhuthaza amanani okukhula kwe-GDP, ngoko abahlalutyi kunye nabarhwebi banokufumanisa ukuba uMario Draghi kunye ne-ECB ngoku banezixhobo eziyimfuneko zokuqalisa ukutshatyalaliswa ngokugqithisileyo kwenkqubo yokuthengwa kwempahla yangoku.
Ngaphaya koko, kunokuthi kuqwalaselwe ekunciphiseni ummandla webloc enye yangoku ukususela kumgaqo-nkqubo wezinga lenzala enguziro. Ngokwemvelo, izigqibo ezinjalo azinakwenzeka ukuba zivakaliswe nguDraghi kwintetho kunye nenkomfa kunye nabagcini bebhanki abangoogxa bakhe, kodwa kunokwenzeka kakhulu ukuba ukuba i-trio ye-GDP amanani anamandla, ngoko umbuzo uya kuvela. Ngezinga le-USA Fed elinokuthi liphakame ngoDisemba, xa i-FOMC idibana okokugqibela kwi-2017 kunye ne-UK BoE nayo iphakamisa amaxabiso, umbuzo uhlala "ixesha elingakanani i-ECB inokuphepha ukulandela i-suit?" Noko ke, ngaba iyuro eyomelele kancinane inokulonakalisa ukukhula koqoqosho lwangoku, olunanditshwa ngulo mmandla?
Usuku luphela ngokukhutshwa kwenani lamva nje le-GDP yaseJapan. Okwangoku kwi-2.5%, i-forecast for fall to 1.5% kwi-Q3. Ngelixa oku kuya kubonisa ukuwa okubalulekileyo, nayiphi na impembelelo kwi-yen inokuthuliswa, ukuba ukuwa sele kubekwe amaxabiso kwiimarike.
I-EUROZONE ENGUNDOQO YOQOQOSHO METRICS
• Ixabiso lentengo ngu-1.4%.
• Urhulumente. ityala v GDP 89.2%.
• Izinga lokukhula kweGDP ngonyaka nge-2.5%.
• Inqanaba lokungaphangeli 8.9%.
Umyinge wenzala 0.0%.
• I-PMI edibeneyo ye-56.
• Ukukhula kweentengiso kwi-YoY 3.7%.
• Amatyala endlu v GDP 58.5%.
« Ngaba iSterling iya kusabela kwisiphelo se-EU, esiza kusiwa ngolwe-Sihlanu kurhulumente wase-UK? Izilayidi ze-Sterling njengenkulumbuso yase-UK ibona igunya libuthathaka, idola yaseMelika iyenyuka njengoko i-FOMC kaDisemba idibana nemida ekufutshane »
