Eyona mithetho mikhulu kaNassim Taleb yengcebiso yokuthengisa ubhontsi

Ngomhla wesihlanu • Phakathi kwemigca • 14202 izimvo • 1 Comment kwimithetho ephambili kaNassim Taleb yeengcebiso zokurhweba ngobhontsi

shutterstock_89862334Ngamaxesha ngamaxesha kufanelekile ukujongisisa ezingqondweni zabanye: abarhwebi 'abadumileyo', abancokoli kunye neengcinga kwihlabathi lethu lokurhweba, ukuze babone ukuba zithini na iingcinga zabo kwizinto ezininzi zokurhweba esizifumana mihla le. isiseko. Eyona nto ibalulekileyo kukukwazi kwabo ukunqumla nje iikopi ezibhalwe kushishino lwethu kwaye ngokulula “bafikelele kwinqanaba”. Kufana nokungathi amashumi eminyaka amava abo athatyathwe ukuya kuthi ga kwishumi elinesibini leengongoma ezicacileyo, ezifanelekileyo nezimfutshane ezinokulungisa ngokukhawuleza ezinye zeembono nemikhwa ephosakeleyo. UMark Douglas ukwazile ukwenza oku kwincwadi yakhe ebalaseleyo ethi "Trading in the Zone" apho iingcinga kunye neenkolelo zakhe zithathe indawo yentsomi kwishishini lethu.
Kodwa kweli nqaku sesinye isigebenga sehlabathi lezorhwebo esifuna ukugxila kulo – uNassim Taleb* opapashe “imithetho yesithupha” kwinto ebizwa ngokuba “yiTrader Risk Management Lore” yakhe. Abafundi abathe rhoqo bale kholamu baya kuqaphela ukuba (ngengozi okanye ngoyilo) siye savakalisa amabango akhe amaninzi kumanqaku angenakubalwa esiwadalile. Ngaphaya koko, abafundi baya kukuqonda ukugxila kukaTaleb, umda wokuzingca, malunga nomngcipheko kunye nolawulo lwemali, umxholo oqhubekayo kumanqaku ethu amaninzi. Emazantsi eli nqaku sinqumle imihlathi embalwa esuka kwiWikipedia enxulumene neTaleb kunye nabarhwebi phakathi koluntu lwethu befuna imathiriyeli yokufunda ukuze badlulise ixesha phakathi kokuseta urhwebo kunye nokuphuhlisa indlela engqukuva neyonke epheleleyo kushishino lwethu. singathanda sicebisa ukufunda iincwadi ngu Taleb kuquka Black Swan kunye Fooled by Randomness. Incwadi yokuqala kaTaleb engeyiyo yobugcisa, Ukukhohliswa ngokungalindelekanga, malunga nokujongelwa phantsi kwendima yokungakhethi ebomini, malunga nexesha elifanayo nokuhlaselwa kwe-11 kaSeptemba, yakhethwa nguFortune njengenye yeencwadi ezingama-75 ezaziwa kakhulu. Incwadi yakhe yesibini engeyiyo yobugcisa, I-Black Swan, malunga neziganeko ezingalindelekanga, yapapashwa kwi-2007, ithengisa iikopi ezikufutshane ne-3 yezigidi (ukusukela ngoFebruwari 2011). Ichithe iiveki ezingama-36 kuluhlu lweNew York Times, ili-17 njengoqweqwe olulukhuni kunye neeveki ezili-19 njengoqweqwe olulukhuni lwaza lwaguqulelwa kwiilwimi ezingama-31. Idada Black iye kubalelwa ngokuqikelela banking kunye nengxaki yezoqoqosho ka-2008.

Ulawulo lweNgcipheko yoMrhwebi: Imithetho eMikhulu kaTaleb yeThupha

Umthetho we-1- Musa ukungena kwiimarike kunye neemveliso ongaziqondiyo. Uya kuba lidada elihleliyo. Umthetho weNombolo yesi-2- Ukubetha okukhulu oza kuthatha ngokulandelayo akuyi kufana naleyo uyithathileyo ekugqibeleni. Musa ukumamela isivumelwano malunga nokuba ziphi na iingozi (oko kukuthi, iingozi eziboniswe yiVAR). Into eya kukwenzakalisa yinto ongayilindelanga. Umthetho we-3- Kholelwa isiqingatha sento oyifundayo, akukho nanye into oyivayo. Ungaze ufunde ithiyori phambi kokuba wenze uqwalaselo lwakho nokucinga. Funda lonke iqhekeza lophando lwethiyori onokuthi - kodwa hlala ungumrhwebi. Uphononongo olungagadwanga lweendlela ezisezantsi zobuninzi ziyakuhlutha ukuqonda kwakho.
Umthetho we-4- Qaphela abathengisi abangenzi intengiso abenza ingeniso ezinzileyo-bavame ukuvuthela. Abarhwebi abalahlekelwa rhoqo banokukwenzakalisa, kodwa abanako ukukuqhushumbisa. Abarhwebi abaguquguqukayo abade baphulukana nemali kangangeentsuku ezininzi zeveki. (Igama elifundiweyo: iipropathi zesampulu ezincinci zomlinganiselo weSharpe). Umthetho we-5- Iimarike ziya kulandela indlela yokulimaza inani eliphezulu le-hedgers. Iiheji ezingcono zezo zibekwe nguwe wedwa. Umthetho we-6- Ungaze uvumele usuku ludlule ngaphandle kokufunda utshintsho kumaxabiso azo zonke izixhobo zokurhweba ezikhoyo. Uya kwakha intelekelelo yethuku enamandla ngakumbi kunezibalo eziqhelekileyo. Umthetho we-7- Eyona mpazamo inkulu: "Esi siganeko asizange senzeke kwimarike yam." Uninzi lwezinto ezingazange zenzeke ngaphambili kwimarike enye yenzeke kwenye. Isibakala sokuba umntu akazange afe ngaphambili asimenzi abe ngongenakufa. (Igama elifundiweyo: Ingxaki kaHume yoqhelaniso). Umthetho No. 8- Ungaze uwuwele umlambo kuba ngokwe-avareji 4 iinyawo ubunzulu. Umthetho we-9- Funda yonke incwadi ngabahwebi ukuba bafunde apho balahlekelwe yimali. Awuyi kufunda nto ifanelekileyo kwiingeniso zabo (iimarike ziyalungisa). Uya kufunda kwiilahleko zabo.

*Nassim Nicholas Taleb

UNassim Nicholas Taleb ngumbhali waseLebhanon waseMelika, isifundiswa kunye nengcali yamanani, umsebenzi wakhe ugxile kwiingxaki zokungakhethi, ukuba nokwenzeka kunye nokungaqiniseki. Incwadi yakhe ka-2007 ethi The Black Swan yachazwa kuphononongo lweSunday Times njengenye yeencwadi ezilishumi elinambini ezinempembelelo ukusukela kwiMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi. UTaleb ngumbhali othengisa kakhulu kwaye ube ngunjingalwazi kwiidyunivesithi ezininzi, ngoku unguNjingalwazi oBaliweyo woBunjineli boMngcipheko kwiYunivesithi yaseNew York yePolytechnic School of Engineering. Ukwayingcali yezemali yezibalo, i-hedge fund manager, i-derivatives trader, kwaye sithetha nje ungumcebisi wenzululwazi kwi-Universa Investments kunye ne-International Monetary Fund. Ugxeke iindlela zokulawula umngcipheko ezisetyenziswa lishishini lezemali kwaye walumkisa malunga neentlekele zemali, emva koko wenza inzuzo kwintlekele yezemali yowama-2000. Uthethelela oko akubiza ngokuba “luluntu olumnyama lwe-swan robust”, ethetha uluntu olunokumelana neziganeko ezinzima ukuqikelela. Uphakamisa "i-anti-fragility" kwiinkqubo, oko kukuthi, ukukwazi ukuxhamla kunye nokukhula kwiklasi ethile yeziganeko ezizenzekelayo, iimpazamo, kunye nokuguquguquka kunye "ne-convex tinkering" njengendlela yokufumanisa inzululwazi, apho uthetha ukuba i-option-like experimenting idlula, uphando olujoliswe kuyo. Iakhawunti yeDemo ye-Forex Iakhawunti ebukhoma ye Forex Fundisa iakhawunti yakho

Amagqabantshintshi zivaliwe.

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