Khoebo e ntle e bataletse ho sa tsotelehe mmuso oa morao-rao oa UK. Letona le tebela, dolara ea Amerika e phahama joalo ka ha litaba tse ntle tsa moruo li lebisa tumelong ea hore sekhahla sa tsoala se tla nyoloha ka mabifi ho 2018
Ha barekisi ba likhuts'oane ba USA ba ntse ba habile tšebetsong ea bona e mpe ka ho fetesisa ea selemo ho tloha ka 2013, batseteli le bahlahlobi ba bangata ba tla be ba botsa potso; litefiso li ka nyoloha ka bokae ho 2018, joale lebaka le leholo la litefiso tsa bona tse makatsang tsa 2017 ha e sa le sesosa sa ts'usumetso? Mmaraka oa lichelete oa DJIA ho la USA o phahame ka li-circa 27% ho fihlela joale ka 2017, ka lebaka la ts'episo ea ho khaola lekhetho ha maRephabliki le moralo o moholo oa tšebeliso ea litšebeletso. Mehato ka bobeli ea ts'usumetso ea lichelete e ne e nkuoa e le ntle haholo ke batseteli mme e nkuoa e le matlafatso bakeng sa libaka tsa Amerika tse oetseng morao ho kholo ea moruo, kapa tse fokolisitsoeng lilemong tsa morao tjena.
Joale rea tseba hore leano la phokotso ea lekhetho le ea etsahala, ts'ebeliso ea chelete ea chelete (e kaalo ka lidolara tse le 'ngoe tse limilione tse likete e ts'episitsoeng ho aha bocha litšebeletso tse senyehileng), e nyametse ka mokhoa o makatsang tlalehong ea Rephabliki le ea Trump likhoeling tse sa tsoa feta.
Morero oa tšebeliso ea chelete ea litšebeletso o bile le phello e mpe ho dolara ea Amerika ho pholletsa le 2017, mme leha Fed e ile ea boloka ts'episo ea eona ea ho nyolla litefiso ka makhetlo a mararo ho 2017 batseteli ba hlotsoe ho reka dolara, e oeleng haholo khahlanong le tse peli tsa eona tsa mantlha. lithaka tsa bona; euro le e babatsehang ho pholletsa le selemo. UK BoE le ECB ea Eurozone li fane ka lipolelo tse makatsang selemong se mabapi le ho phahama ha sekhahla sa tsoala. Mabapi le liketso tsa leano la lichelete; BoE e ile ea ikutloa e qobelloa ho nyolla litefiso ka 0.25% ho isa ho 0.5% ka Pulungoana, molemong oa ho loants'a khatello ea theko, athe mohato o le mong feela oa hawkish oo ECB e neng e o entse e ne e le ho theola APP (lenaneo la theko ea thepa) ka € 20b ka khoeli. Leha ho na le khaello ea ketso lichelete tsa libanka tse bohareng li ile tsa phahama khahlanong le dolara ea Amerika ka 2017.
Fed e boetse e sa tsoa itlama lenaneong la sekhahla sa tsoala ka 2018, e fana ka maikutlo a hore ho na le likhahla tse ling tse tharo tsa lisosa tsa 0.25% ho pholletsa le selemo mme e boletse hore e ikemiselitse ho batla mekhoa ea ho arola "sheet" ea eona ea $ 4.5 trillion. Leha ho le joalo leha ho bile le tlhahiso ena ea bo-hawkish, dolara ea Amerika e ntse e hloleha ho etsa phaello e kholo khahlanong le lithaka ka bobeli. Ka 2018 ho tla ba monate ho bona hore na dolara e hlile e phahama na, haeba lipalo tse tharo li ka ba teng. Haeba e etsa joalo, BoE le ECB ba ka qobelloa ho latela le ho qala lenaneo la bona la ho tloaela maemo.
Mabapi le litaba tsa khalendara ea moruo ka Labone, kholo ea Palo ea GDP e hlolohetsoe ponelopele, ka ho tla ho 3.2% YoY, ha data ea likopo tsa pele le tse tsoelang pele tse sa sebetseng le tsona li hlotsoe ke likhakanyo. Barekisi ba mabenkele a Japane ba ile ba hlasela likhakanyo, ha BOJ e ntse e boloka litefiso ho -0.1%. Lipalo tsa kantle ho naha tsa kantle ho naha tsa Switzerland le kantle ho naha li ne li le ntle 'me li otla litebello, joalo ka balanse ea khoebo e ntlafalitseng MoM. Palo ea kalimo ea sechaba ea UK ea kalimo ea khoeli ea Pulungoana e ntlafalitse hanyane, mme boits'epo ba bareki ba Eurozone bo ile ba nyoloha hanyane. Tlhahiso ea likoloi UK e tlalehile ho oa ho hoholo ka ho fetisisa selemo le selemo ho tloha ka selemo sa 2017.
Lipalo tse khothatsang tsa thekiso ea mabenkele tsa Canada, tse bonts'ang keketseho e kholo ho 2.5% ka Mphalane, e kopantsoeng le CPI e nyoloha ka mokhoa o itekanetseng, e entse hore batseteli ba reke dolara ea Canada ho ipapisitsoe le tumelo ea hore RBA e se e na le likulo tse hlokahalang tsa ho nyolla sekhahla sa tsoala hape mathoasong a selemo se secha. selemo. CAD e ile ea phahama khahlanong le lithaka tsa eona tse ngata, ea nyoloha ka circa 1% ho fapana le USD. Khauta e bolokile keketseho ea eona ea morao-rao ho tloha ka la 12 Tšitoe tlase ho 1236, ho fihlela boemong bo le bong e fihlella 200 DMA ea 1269, pele e khutlisa melemo.
Yuro
EUR / USD e rekisitsoe ka moalo o moqotetsane oa 0.2%, o koala ka 1.186, o bataletse ka letsatsi mme o haufi le PP ea letsatsi le letsatsi. EUR / GBP e boetse e rekisoa ka moalo o moqotetsane (hoo e ka bang 0.3%) motšehare, ka leeme ho ea holimo, pele e koala foleteng ka letsatsi ka 0.886.
HO SEBELISA
GBP / USD e shapuoa ka marang-rang, e oela ho S2 tlase ho 0.6%, pele e hlaphoheloa ho phethela letsatsi tlase. GBP / AUD e nyolohetse ho R1, pele e oela ka S2, ho koala letsatsi ka tlase ka 0.6%.
USDOLLAR
USD / JPY e nyolohetse ka R1, pele e khutlela morao ho phethela letsatsi ka 0.2%. USD / CHF e tlotse R1, e nyolohela ho ea holimo ho 0.5%, pele e khutlisa leruo le leng ho khutlela ho R1, ho nyoloha ho potoloha 0.3% ka letsatsi ho 0.985. USD / CAD e oele ka circa 1% ka letsatsi ha e oela ka S3, e koala letsatsi ka 1.273.
Gold
XAU / USD e shapuoa nakong eohle ea khoebo, e oela ka S1, e theohile ka 0.3%, ebe e fihla holimo ka 1269 letsatsi le leng le le leng mme qetellong ea fihla ho 200 DMA ho fihlela 0.3%, pele e fana ka phaello ea ho phethela letsatsi ho circa 1266.
LITŠOANTŠISO TSA LITŠOANTŠISO TSA TEKANO LA LA 21 DECEMBER.
• DJIA e koetse 0.23%.
• SPX e koetse 0.20%.
• FTSE 100 e koetse 1.05%.
• DAX e koetse 0.31%.
• CAC e koetse 0.52%.
LIKETSAHALO TSA SEHLOOHO TSA K'HALENDA EA MORUO LETSATSI LA LA 22 DECEMBER.
• Kakaretso ea Lihlahisoa tsa GBP (YoY) (3Q F).
• CAD Gross Product ea Lehae (YoY) (OCT).
• Litaelo tsa Thepa ea Lihlahisoa tsa USD (NOV P).
• USD U. ea Mich. Maikutlo (DEC F).
• USD New Home Thekiso (MoM) (NOV).
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