Ndira 16 • Mashoko eMusika • 6108 Views • 1 Comment paUK Idzokera Mune Kudonhedza Izvo Hazvina Kubuda
Iyo UK Yadzoka Mukudzoreredza Iyo Haina Kubuda Kunze. Muzvokwadi USA haina kusiyana
Tsananguro yekuderera kwemari yakachinja pamusoro pemakore uye inosiyana nyika nenyika nenyika uye kondinendi. MuUK Kuderera kwemari kunotsanangurwa sezviitiko zviviri zvinoteedzana zvekukura kwakashata. MuU.SA iyo Bhizinesi Rekutenderera Kuteedzana Komiti yeNational Bureau yeEconomic Research (NBER) inowanzoonekwa seyemvumo yekufambidzana neUS kuderera. Iyo NBER inotsanangura kuderera kwehupfumi se:
kuderera kwakakura kwezviitiko zvehupfumi kwakapararira muhupfumi hwese, kunogara kwemwedzi mishoma, kazhinji kunoonekwa muGDP chaiyo, mari chaiyo, basa, kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri, uye kutengesa-kutengesa.
Vanenge pese pese, vadzidzi, economists, vagadziri vezvematongerwo enyika, uye mabhizinesi vanodzora kutsunga kwakaitwa neNBER yeiyo chaiyo kufambidzana kwekutanga kwehupfumi uye kupera. Muchidimbu kana kukura 'kukashata' muUSA saka nyika iri mukutambudzika.
Sekureva kwevezvehupfumi, kubvira 1854, iyo US yakasangana nemakumi matatu nematanhatu ekuwedzeredza uye zvipikisheni, iine avhareji yemwedzi gumi nemitanhatu yekudzikira uye nemwedzi makumi matatu nesere yekuwedzera. Nekudaro, kubva 32 kwave nenguva nhatu chete dzekushata kwehupfumi pamusoro pegumi remari kana kupfuura, uye nguva ina dzakatariswa kudzikira.
USA kudzoka kubva 1980
Chikunguru 1981 - Mbudzi 1982: mwedzi gumi nemana
Chikunguru 1990 - Kurume 1991: 8 mwedzi
Kurume 2001 - Mbudzi 2001: 8 mwedzi
Zvita 2007 - Chikumi 2009: mwedzi gumi nesere
Pamatatu matatu apfuura, iyo NBER sarudzo yakada kufanana nedudziro inosanganisira maviri akateedzana makota ekuderera. Nepo kuderera kwe2001 kusingabatanidze makota maviri akateedzana ekuderera, kwakatungamirwa nezvikamu zviviri zvekuchinja kwakaderera uye kukura kusimba. Kuderera kweUS muna 2007 kwakapera muna Chikumi, 2009 apo nyika yakapinda mukugadzirisa hupfumi huripo.
Kushaikwa kwemabasa muUS kwakakura kusvika pa8.5 muzana munaKurume 2009, uye paive nekurasika kwemamiriyoni mashanu nezviuru kusvika munaKurume 5.1 kubva kuderera kwehupfumi kwakatanga muna Zvita 2009. Iwo angave anenge mamirioni mashanu evamwe vanhu vasina mabasa zvichienzaniswa negore rakapfuura, raive rakakura gore rega kusvetuka muhuwandu hwevanhu vasina mabasa kubvira ma2007.
UK Kudzoka Kubva 1970
Pakati pema1970 kuderera kwehupfumi 1973-5, makore maviri (matanhatu pa2 Qtr). Vakatora makota gumi nemana eGDP kuti vadzokere pachinzvimbo pakutanga kwehupfumi mushure me 'dhizaini'.
Pakutanga 1980s kuderera kwehupfumi 1980- 1982, makore maviri (2 - 6 Qtr). Kushaikwa kwemabasa kunokwira 7% kubva pa124% yevagari vanoshanda munaAug 5.3 kusvika pa1979% muna 11.9. Vakatora makota gumi nematatu eGDP kuti vadzokere kune iwo pakutanga kwa1984. Vakatora zvikamu gumi nezvisere zveGDP kuti vadzokere kune izvozvo pakutanga kwekuderera.
Pakutanga kwema1990 kuderera kwehupfumi 1990-2 1.25 makore (5 Qtr). Peak bhajeti kushomeka 8% yeGDP. Kushaikwa kwemabasa kunokwira 55% kubva pa6.9% yevagari vemo vanoshanda muna 1990 kusvika pa10.7% muna 1993. Vakatora zvikamu gumi nezvitatu zveGDP kuti vadzokere kune izvozvo pakutanga kwekuderera.
Kwapera gore 2000 kuderera, makore 1.5, makota matanhatu. Kuburitsa kwakadonha 6% muna 0.5 Q2010. Kushaikwa kwemabasa pakutanga kwakakwira kusvika pa4% (vanhu 8.1m) muna Nyamavhuvhu 2.57, chikamu chepamusoro kubva 2011, izvi zvakazopfuurwa. Kubva muna Gumiguru 1994, mushure memakota gumi nemana, GDP ichiri 2011% pasi kubva pakakwirira pakutanga kwenyika.
Kudzoreredzwa Kwakaitwa 'Kutengwa'
Iyo USA 2008/2009 huwandu hwehupfumi hwenyika hunoratidza kuti USA yakamira sei uye kuti 'kufambira mberi' kwechokwadi kwakaitwa sei. Kunyangwe paine hype uye zvisirizvo chokwadi ndechekuti iyo USA ichiri mune kudzikira. Muna Kurume 2009 kushaikwa kwemabasa kwaive 8.5%, nhasi i8.5%. Pakazosvika Kurume 2009 mamirioni 5.1 vakarasikirwa nemabasa, fungidziro ikozvino inoratidza kuti ingangoita mamirioni 9.0 mambure ekurasikirwa nebasa kubva muna 2007-2012. Kunyangwe paine kuyedza kuitenderedza neimwe nzira hapana zviitiko zvakadai se 'kushomeka kushoma-basa', USA ichiri yakanyura mugoronga rekuderera kwakadzika. IU.SA ingangoda kugadzira circa mazana mana emabasa emwedzi pamwedzi pamusoro penzvimbo yakasimba yemakore matatu, kuitira kuti vadzokere kumatanho epakutanga e400,000 emabasa.
Chokwadi nezviverengero, zvine chekuita nekubvisirwa mari, kununura uye kuwandisa zvirongwa muUSA, zvakadonhedzwa kudyiswa kana kumanikidzwa kupihwa nekuda kwekupindira kwaBloomberg kuburikidza nematare. Kufambisa parutivi iwo manhamba chikwereti siringi hachina kuvanzwa. Huchenjeri hwakagamuchirwa ndewekuti pamadhora maviri ega ega ekukura USA 'yatenga' madhora masere echikwereti. Kusiya kukanganisika chaiko kwesimba rekutenga izvo zvakakonzera, nekuda kwekunyatso kuviga inflation, humbowo hwechikwereti padenga huripo mutema nemuchena nezvekuti kudzoreredza kwacho kuri kunyepedzera sei.
Denga rechikwereti rakakwidzwa neinopfuura makumi mana kubva muzana kubva muna 40. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti kwakakura mari inosvika madhora zviuru mazana mashanu nezviuru mazana mashanu kuti ikwanise kugadzirisa, iko kupora kuchiri kuona kuyerwa kwekubata kumeso (U2008) kwekushaikwa kwemabasa kwayakatangira. , pa5.2%. Kunyangwe ese mabhailout uye kununurwa (zvakavanzika kana kuburitswa) zvirongwa zve 'tarp' uye kukwereta chikwereti kunokwidza USA yakati sandara, ergo haina kumbobuda mukudzikira, chiitiko chekudyidzana neruzhinji chakarukwa.
Kuenzanisa kweUK kwakafanana zvakafanana, sekuEurope. Iko kushomeka kweUK kushomeka kuri pa8.5%, zvakadaro huwandu husina mabasa huri pamatanho avo epamusoro mumakore gumi nemanomwe uye maererano neongororo yehurumende kune dzimba dzine mamirioni 3.9 dzisina 'mubhadharo'. Iko kune circa 4.8 ml UK vakuru pane kunze kwebasa mabhenefiti uye 400,000 mabasa anowanikwa chero nguva yakapihwa. Uye nebasa re circa makumi maviri emamiriyoni kuwanikwa kwebasa uku kunomirira huwandu hwehuwandu hwe 'churn', 20%. Zvakafanana neUSA, asi padiki padiki, maneja eUK akaedza 'kutenga nzira yavo yekubuda', achisiya UK neinokatyamadza yakabatana GDP v chikwereti chikamu chinopfuura 2%, yakaipisisa muEurope iyo (separutivi) iri nei vazhinji vatauri uye vezvematongerwo enyika veEurope vachibvunza chiyero cheUK cheAAA.
http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimony/12-15-11_TARP_Sanders_Testimony.pdf
Ichokwadi cheUK neUSA ndechekuti havana kumbosiya hupfumi, uye sekufunga kwakawanda (mushure mechiitiko cha2008) mukuyedza kudzivisa kudzikisira kwemasimba ayo akagadzirirwa nyika mbiri kushushikana senyika isina kupupura kubvira kuma1930.
Kana ndikakwanisa kukwereta chirevo cheAmerica iyo UK, vatungamiriri vezvematongerwo enyika veEuropean neUSA vanofanira 'fess up' kune veruzhinji maererano nemamiriro azvino. Kunyange kusarudzwa kwesarudzo kwenguva pfupi iri vavariro yavo chokwadi chinoramba chiri chekuti nzvimbo dzese dzakaramba dziri muupfumi 'huwandu' kwemakore mana. Zvisinei nekunyorwa kukuru kwazvo kwekusikwa kwemari kwakapupurirwa kubvira pakaburitswa system yemabhengi yemazuva ano 'kukura', sekuyerwa kunoitwa nezvakakosha zvinoshandiswa zvakanyanya; mabasa, zvoumbozha, kuchengetedza zvine mwero, hazvina kuitika.
Kana isu tikabvisa zvese zvekununura mapakeji uye tikasateedzera zvinokatyamadza mabhenefiti ayo, iyo USA ikozvino iri mukufungidzira yayo 48 mwedzi yekuderera kwehupfumi, iyo UK neEurope vari mune yavo 35-37th, zvichiita kuti kuderera uku kuve kwakaipisisa munguva dzazvino 'dzakanyorwa' nguva. Ose matatu manejimendi angangoda kufunga nezve kuita gakava rakavimbika uye rakajeka neavo vangangosarudzwa pamberi pekuparadzaniswa pakati pezvazviri uye kutenderera kunova kusingaenzanisike sezviumbwa zvavo zvakajairika uye zvinotsausa.
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Iyo UK Yadzoka Mukudzoreredza Iyo Haina Kubuda Kunze
Ndira 16 • Mashoko eMusika • 6108 Views • 1 Comment paUK Idzokera Mune Kudonhedza Izvo Hazvina Kubuda
Iyo UK Yadzoka Mukudzoreredza Iyo Haina Kubuda Kunze. Muzvokwadi USA haina kusiyana
Tsananguro yekuderera kwemari yakachinja pamusoro pemakore uye inosiyana nyika nenyika nenyika uye kondinendi. MuUK Kuderera kwemari kunotsanangurwa sezviitiko zviviri zvinoteedzana zvekukura kwakashata. MuU.SA iyo Bhizinesi Rekutenderera Kuteedzana Komiti yeNational Bureau yeEconomic Research (NBER) inowanzoonekwa seyemvumo yekufambidzana neUS kuderera. Iyo NBER inotsanangura kuderera kwehupfumi se:
kuderera kwakakura kwezviitiko zvehupfumi kwakapararira muhupfumi hwese, kunogara kwemwedzi mishoma, kazhinji kunoonekwa muGDP chaiyo, mari chaiyo, basa, kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri, uye kutengesa-kutengesa.
Vanenge pese pese, vadzidzi, economists, vagadziri vezvematongerwo enyika, uye mabhizinesi vanodzora kutsunga kwakaitwa neNBER yeiyo chaiyo kufambidzana kwekutanga kwehupfumi uye kupera. Muchidimbu kana kukura 'kukashata' muUSA saka nyika iri mukutambudzika.
Sekureva kwevezvehupfumi, kubvira 1854, iyo US yakasangana nemakumi matatu nematanhatu ekuwedzeredza uye zvipikisheni, iine avhareji yemwedzi gumi nemitanhatu yekudzikira uye nemwedzi makumi matatu nesere yekuwedzera. Nekudaro, kubva 32 kwave nenguva nhatu chete dzekushata kwehupfumi pamusoro pegumi remari kana kupfuura, uye nguva ina dzakatariswa kudzikira.
USA kudzoka kubva 1980
Chikunguru 1981 - Mbudzi 1982: mwedzi gumi nemana
Chikunguru 1990 - Kurume 1991: 8 mwedzi
Kurume 2001 - Mbudzi 2001: 8 mwedzi
Zvita 2007 - Chikumi 2009: mwedzi gumi nesere
Pamatatu matatu apfuura, iyo NBER sarudzo yakada kufanana nedudziro inosanganisira maviri akateedzana makota ekuderera. Nepo kuderera kwe2001 kusingabatanidze makota maviri akateedzana ekuderera, kwakatungamirwa nezvikamu zviviri zvekuchinja kwakaderera uye kukura kusimba. Kuderera kweUS muna 2007 kwakapera muna Chikumi, 2009 apo nyika yakapinda mukugadzirisa hupfumi huripo.
Kushaikwa kwemabasa muUS kwakakura kusvika pa8.5 muzana munaKurume 2009, uye paive nekurasika kwemamiriyoni mashanu nezviuru kusvika munaKurume 5.1 kubva kuderera kwehupfumi kwakatanga muna Zvita 2009. Iwo angave anenge mamirioni mashanu evamwe vanhu vasina mabasa zvichienzaniswa negore rakapfuura, raive rakakura gore rega kusvetuka muhuwandu hwevanhu vasina mabasa kubvira ma2007.
UK Kudzoka Kubva 1970
Pakati pema1970 kuderera kwehupfumi 1973-5, makore maviri (matanhatu pa2 Qtr). Vakatora makota gumi nemana eGDP kuti vadzokere pachinzvimbo pakutanga kwehupfumi mushure me 'dhizaini'.
Pakutanga 1980s kuderera kwehupfumi 1980- 1982, makore maviri (2 - 6 Qtr). Kushaikwa kwemabasa kunokwira 7% kubva pa124% yevagari vanoshanda munaAug 5.3 kusvika pa1979% muna 11.9. Vakatora makota gumi nematatu eGDP kuti vadzokere kune iwo pakutanga kwa1984. Vakatora zvikamu gumi nezvisere zveGDP kuti vadzokere kune izvozvo pakutanga kwekuderera.
Pakutanga kwema1990 kuderera kwehupfumi 1990-2 1.25 makore (5 Qtr). Peak bhajeti kushomeka 8% yeGDP. Kushaikwa kwemabasa kunokwira 55% kubva pa6.9% yevagari vemo vanoshanda muna 1990 kusvika pa10.7% muna 1993. Vakatora zvikamu gumi nezvitatu zveGDP kuti vadzokere kune izvozvo pakutanga kwekuderera.
Kwapera gore 2000 kuderera, makore 1.5, makota matanhatu. Kuburitsa kwakadonha 6% muna 0.5 Q2010. Kushaikwa kwemabasa pakutanga kwakakwira kusvika pa4% (vanhu 8.1m) muna Nyamavhuvhu 2.57, chikamu chepamusoro kubva 2011, izvi zvakazopfuurwa. Kubva muna Gumiguru 1994, mushure memakota gumi nemana, GDP ichiri 2011% pasi kubva pakakwirira pakutanga kwenyika.
Kudzoreredzwa Kwakaitwa 'Kutengwa'
Iyo USA 2008/2009 huwandu hwehupfumi hwenyika hunoratidza kuti USA yakamira sei uye kuti 'kufambira mberi' kwechokwadi kwakaitwa sei. Kunyangwe paine hype uye zvisirizvo chokwadi ndechekuti iyo USA ichiri mune kudzikira. Muna Kurume 2009 kushaikwa kwemabasa kwaive 8.5%, nhasi i8.5%. Pakazosvika Kurume 2009 mamirioni 5.1 vakarasikirwa nemabasa, fungidziro ikozvino inoratidza kuti ingangoita mamirioni 9.0 mambure ekurasikirwa nebasa kubva muna 2007-2012. Kunyangwe paine kuyedza kuitenderedza neimwe nzira hapana zviitiko zvakadai se 'kushomeka kushoma-basa', USA ichiri yakanyura mugoronga rekuderera kwakadzika. IU.SA ingangoda kugadzira circa mazana mana emabasa emwedzi pamwedzi pamusoro penzvimbo yakasimba yemakore matatu, kuitira kuti vadzokere kumatanho epakutanga e400,000 emabasa.
Chokwadi nezviverengero, zvine chekuita nekubvisirwa mari, kununura uye kuwandisa zvirongwa muUSA, zvakadonhedzwa kudyiswa kana kumanikidzwa kupihwa nekuda kwekupindira kwaBloomberg kuburikidza nematare. Kufambisa parutivi iwo manhamba chikwereti siringi hachina kuvanzwa. Huchenjeri hwakagamuchirwa ndewekuti pamadhora maviri ega ega ekukura USA 'yatenga' madhora masere echikwereti. Kusiya kukanganisika chaiko kwesimba rekutenga izvo zvakakonzera, nekuda kwekunyatso kuviga inflation, humbowo hwechikwereti padenga huripo mutema nemuchena nezvekuti kudzoreredza kwacho kuri kunyepedzera sei.
Denga rechikwereti rakakwidzwa neinopfuura makumi mana kubva muzana kubva muna 40. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti kwakakura mari inosvika madhora zviuru mazana mashanu nezviuru mazana mashanu kuti ikwanise kugadzirisa, iko kupora kuchiri kuona kuyerwa kwekubata kumeso (U2008) kwekushaikwa kwemabasa kwayakatangira. , pa5.2%. Kunyangwe ese mabhailout uye kununurwa (zvakavanzika kana kuburitswa) zvirongwa zve 'tarp' uye kukwereta chikwereti kunokwidza USA yakati sandara, ergo haina kumbobuda mukudzikira, chiitiko chekudyidzana neruzhinji chakarukwa.
Kuenzanisa kweUK kwakafanana zvakafanana, sekuEurope. Iko kushomeka kweUK kushomeka kuri pa8.5%, zvakadaro huwandu husina mabasa huri pamatanho avo epamusoro mumakore gumi nemanomwe uye maererano neongororo yehurumende kune dzimba dzine mamirioni 3.9 dzisina 'mubhadharo'. Iko kune circa 4.8 ml UK vakuru pane kunze kwebasa mabhenefiti uye 400,000 mabasa anowanikwa chero nguva yakapihwa. Uye nebasa re circa makumi maviri emamiriyoni kuwanikwa kwebasa uku kunomirira huwandu hwehuwandu hwe 'churn', 20%. Zvakafanana neUSA, asi padiki padiki, maneja eUK akaedza 'kutenga nzira yavo yekubuda', achisiya UK neinokatyamadza yakabatana GDP v chikwereti chikamu chinopfuura 2%, yakaipisisa muEurope iyo (separutivi) iri nei vazhinji vatauri uye vezvematongerwo enyika veEurope vachibvunza chiyero cheUK cheAAA.
http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimony/12-15-11_TARP_Sanders_Testimony.pdf
Ichokwadi cheUK neUSA ndechekuti havana kumbosiya hupfumi, uye sekufunga kwakawanda (mushure mechiitiko cha2008) mukuyedza kudzivisa kudzikisira kwemasimba ayo akagadzirirwa nyika mbiri kushushikana senyika isina kupupura kubvira kuma1930.
Kana ndikakwanisa kukwereta chirevo cheAmerica iyo UK, vatungamiriri vezvematongerwo enyika veEuropean neUSA vanofanira 'fess up' kune veruzhinji maererano nemamiriro azvino. Kunyange kusarudzwa kwesarudzo kwenguva pfupi iri vavariro yavo chokwadi chinoramba chiri chekuti nzvimbo dzese dzakaramba dziri muupfumi 'huwandu' kwemakore mana. Zvisinei nekunyorwa kukuru kwazvo kwekusikwa kwemari kwakapupurirwa kubvira pakaburitswa system yemabhengi yemazuva ano 'kukura', sekuyerwa kunoitwa nezvakakosha zvinoshandiswa zvakanyanya; mabasa, zvoumbozha, kuchengetedza zvine mwero, hazvina kuitika.
Kana isu tikabvisa zvese zvekununura mapakeji uye tikasateedzera zvinokatyamadza mabhenefiti ayo, iyo USA ikozvino iri mukufungidzira yayo 48 mwedzi yekuderera kwehupfumi, iyo UK neEurope vari mune yavo 35-37th, zvichiita kuti kuderera uku kuve kwakaipisisa munguva dzazvino 'dzakanyorwa' nguva. Ose matatu manejimendi angangoda kufunga nezve kuita gakava rakavimbika uye rakajeka neavo vangangosarudzwa pamberi pekuparadzaniswa pakati pezvazviri uye kutenderera kunova kusingaenzanisike sezviumbwa zvavo zvakajairika uye zvinotsausa.
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