Mitemo mikuru yaNassim Taleb yekutengesa zvigunwe

Kubvumbi 3 • Between the lines • 14265 Views • 1 Comment pane Nassim Talebmitemo mikuru yemazano ekutengesa zvigunwe

Nguva nenguva zvakakosha kutarisa mupfungwa dzevamwe ve: 'vanozivikanwa' vatengesi, vanyori vezvinyorwa uye vanofunga munyika yedu yekutengesa, kuti vaone kuti mifungo yavo ndeyei pane zvakawanda zvezvinhu zvekutengesa zvatinosangana nazvo zuva nezuva. hwaro. Chakanyanya kukosha kugona kwavo kungocheka nepakati pemakopi akanyorwa pane yedu indasitiri uye zviri nyore "kusvika padanho". Zvinoita sekunge makumi emakore eruzivo rwavo akaderedzwa kusvika pamwe asingapfuure gumi nemaviri akajeka, akakodzera uye mapfupi pfungwa dzinogona kururamisa nekukurumidza mamwe emaonero nemaitiro edu asina kururama. Mark Douglas anozvikwanisa kuita izvi mubhuku rake rakanaka kwazvo "Trading in the Zone" uko pfungwa dzake nezvaanotenda zvakatora chinzvimbo muindasitiri yedu.

Asi muchinyorwa chino ndeimwe hofori yenyika yekutengeserana yatinoda kutarisisa pairi - Nassim Taleb* uyo akaburitsa mipfumbamwe "mitemo yegunwe" mune yainzi "Trader Risk Management Lore". Vagara vachiverenga makoramu aya vanozoona kuti (netsaona kana dhizaini) takadzokorora zvaakataura muzvinyorwa zvisingaverengeki zvatakagadzira. Uyezve, vaverengi vanozoziva kutariswa kwaTaleb, kuganhurana nekubatikana, zvine chekuita nenjodzi uye manejimendi emari, dingindira rinogara richidzokororwa mune zvakawanda zvezvinyorwa zvedu. Pazasi pechinyorwa ichi takacheka mashoma ndima kubva kuWikipedia ane chekuita naTaleb uye kune vatengesi mukati menharaunda yedu vachitsvaga zvekuverenga kuti vese vapedze nguva pakati pekutengesa kuseta uye kugadzira nzira yakatenderedzwa uye yakazara yakazara kuindasitiri yedu. isu tinokurudzira kuverenga mabhuku naTaleb anosanganisira Black Swan uye Fooled By Randomness. Bhuku raTaleb rekutanga risiri rehunyanzvi, Kunyengerwa neKusarongeka, nezve kusatarisirwa kwechinzvimbo chekusarongeka muhupenyu, panguva imwe chete yekurwiswa kwaGunyana 11, rakasarudzwa naFortune serimwe remabhuku akangwara makumi manomwe neshanu anozivikanwa. Bhuku rake rechipiri risiri-tekinoroji, The Black Swan, nezvezviitiko zvisingatarisike, rakabudiswa muna 75, richitengesa pedyo nemamiriyoni matatu emakopi (kubva muna Kukadzi 2007). Yakapedza mavhiki makumi matatu nematanhatu paNew York Times Bestseller list, 3 sebutiro rakaomarara uye mavhiki 2011 sepepa rebepa uye yakashandurirwa mumitauro 36. Iyo Black Swan yakaverengerwa kufanotaura kubhengi uye dambudziko rehupfumi ra17.

Trader Risk Management Lore: Mitemo mikuru yaTaleb yeThumb

Mutemo Nha. 1- Usapinda mumisika uye zvigadzirwa zvausinganzwisise. Unenge uri dhadha rakagara. Rule Nha. 2- Iyo yakakura hit iwe yauchatora inotevera haizofanani neyawakatora yekupedzisira. Usateerere kubvumirana kuti njodzi dziripi (kureva njodzi dzinoratidzwa neVAR). Zvichakurwadza ndizvo zvaunotarisira zvishoma. Mutemo Nha. 3- Tenda hafu yezvaunoverenga, hapana pane zvaunonzwa. Usambofa wakafunda dzidziso usati waita zvaunoona uye kufunga kwako. Verenga chidimbu chega chega chetsvakiridzo yaunogona-asi gara uri mutengesi. Chidzidzo chisina kuchengetedzwa chemaitiro akaderera ehuwandu chinokubira iwe nzwisiso yako.

Mutemo Nhamba 4- Chenjerera kune vatengesi vasiri vatengesi vanoita mari yakagadzikana-vanowanzoputika. Vatengesi vanorasikirwa kazhinji vanogona kukukuvadza, asi ivo havagone kukuputitsa. Vatengesi venguva refu vanorasikirwa nemari mazuva mazhinji evhiki. (Zita rakadzidzwa: diki sampuli zvivakwa zveSharpe reshiyo). Mutemo we5- Misika ichatevera nzira yekukuvadza nhamba yepamusoro yehedgers. Maheji akanakisa ndeaya iwe wega unoisa. Mutemo Nhamba 6- Usambofa wakarega zuva richipfuura usina kudzidza kuchinja kwemitengo yezvinhu zvose zviripo zvekutengesa. Iwe unovaka fungidziro yezvakasikwa ine simba kupfuura zvakajairika manhamba. Mutemo Nhamba 7- Chikanganiso chikuru chekutadza: "Chiitiko ichi hachimboitike mumusika wangu." Zvizhinji zvezvisina kumboitika mune imwe musika zvakaitika mune imwe. Chokwadi chokuti mumwe munhu haana kumbobvira afa hachimuiti kuti asafa. (Zita rakadzidzwa: Dambudziko raHume rekupinza). Mutemo wechisere - Usamboyambuka rwizi nekuti paavhareji 8 tsoka dzakadzika. Mutemo Nhamba 4- Verenga bhuku rega rega nevatengesi kuti vadzidze pavakarasikirwa nemari. Iwe hauzodzidza chinhu chakakosha kubva kune yavo purofiti (iyo misika inogadzirisa). Unozodzidza kubva mukurasikirwa kwavo.

* Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb muRebhanoni wekuAmerica munyori wezvinyorwa, nyanzvi uye statistician, ane basa rinotarisa pamatambudziko ekusarongeka, mukana uye kusagadzikana. Bhuku rake ra2007 The Black Swan rakatsanangurwa muongororo neSunday Times serimwe remabhuku gumi nemaviri ane simba kubvira Hondo Yenyika II. Taleb munyori anotengesa zvakanyanya uye anga ari purofesa kumayunivhesiti akati wandei, parizvino Anoremekedzwa Purofesa weRisk Engineering paNew York University Polytechnic Chikoro cheUinjiniya. Akave zvakare nyanzvi yezvemari yemasvomhu, maneja wehedge fund, mutengesi wezvinobvamo, uye parizvino chipangamazano wesainzi kuUniversa Investments neInternational Monetary Fund. Akashoropodza nzira dzekugadzirisa njodzi dzinoshandiswa neindasitiri yezvemari uye akayambira nezvematambudziko emari, achizowana purofiti kubva mukupera kwa2000s dambudziko remari. Anotsigira yaanodaidza kuti “black swan robust” nzanga, zvichireva nzanga inokwanisa kutsungirira zviitiko zvakaoma kufanotaura. Anokurudzira "anti-fragility" mumasisitimu, ndiko kuti, kugona kubatsirwa uye kukura kubva kune imwe kirasi yezviitiko zvisingaite, zvikanganiso, uye kusagadzikana pamwe ne "convex tinkering" senzira yekuwanikwa kwesainzi, iyo yaanoreva kuti. sarudzo-seyedzero inodarika, yakananga tsvakurudzo.   

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