MALO OGULITSIRA Sabata limodzi 27 / 11-01 / 12 | Ma GDP a: Canada, USA, France, Italy ndi Switzerland zidzawoneka bwino sabata ikubwerayi
Ndi FOMC yomwe iyenera kukumana mu Disembala, kuti isankhe gawo lotsatira la chiwongola dzanja ku chuma cha USA, amalonda ambiri a FX ndi owunikira adzayang'ana chiwerengero chaposachedwa cha USA GDP mukasindikizidwa Lachitatu. Mipando ya Fed itha kulimbikitsidwa kuti iyambe ndondomeko ya ndalama za hawkish mu 2018, ngati GDP (pachaka) ibwera (kapena pafupi) ndi kukula kwa 3.4%, kukweza kuchokera pakuwerenga koyamba kwa 3%. Kukula kwa North America kukuwoneka kuti kumangidwa pamaziko olimba, popeza chuma cha Canada chimaperekanso ziwerengero zodabwitsa za GDP m'miyezi yaposachedwa. Pakukula kwa 4.5% pakadali pano ikupereka chiwongola dzanja cha GDP kuchokera ku chuma chilichonse chotukuka, kuchuluka kwake kwa ulova ndikotsika ndipo inflation ikuwongoleredwa, pomwe kuwerengedwa kwama data kovuta kukufika pazolinga.
Mayiko angapo aku Europe amafalitsanso ziwerengero zawo zaposachedwa za GDP sabata ikubwerayi. France ndi Italy asintha modabwitsa chaka chatha kapena chatha, GDP yaku France pano ili pa 2.2% YoY, pomwe Italy ili pa 1.8%, chiwongola dzanja chachikulu kuchokera komwe mayiko onsewa adayikidwako, mwachitsanzo, 2014. Komabe, ndi kusowa kwa ntchito kudera lonse la Eurozone, ndikuti kuchuluka kwa ulova kumayang'ana makamaka pagulu la achinyamata m'maiko onsewa, opanga malamulo aku Italy ndi France ayenera kupewa kudandaula.
Lolemba imayamba sabata ndi chidziwitso chakugulitsa ku Germany, pakadali pano kukula kuli pa 4.1% YoY, kuyembekezera kuti chiwerengerochi chisungidwe. Monga momwe zakhalira Lolemba, milingo yaposachedwa kwambiri ya Bank Bank ikuyikidwa, zida zomwe zingapangitse mtengo wa Swiss franc ngati malo achitetezo. Kuchokera ku USA deta yatsopano yogulitsa nyumba isindikizidwa, kugwa kwakukulu kwa nyengo -7.8% MoM ya Okutobala kukuyembekezeredwa.
Lachiwiri akuyamba ndi kafukufuku wina wamtengo wapanyumba wochokera ku UK, mtengo wanyumba yonse ya Nationwide pakadali pano ukukula kwa 2.5% YoY, chiwerengerochi chikuyembekezeka kusungidwa, kapena kuwonjezeka. Maganizo a OECD a Eurozone adzamasulidwa, buku lomwe lidzayang'aniridwa mosamala, kuwerenga kwa chidaliro kwa GfK ku Germany kudzafalitsidwanso. Pomwe chidwi chikutsegulira kutsegulidwa kwa misika ku USA, malonda aposachedwa kwambiri ogulitsa malonda awululidwa, monga kuchuluka kwa anthu aku USA, kuchepera kukuyenera kusindikizidwa, kuneneraku kukuwonongeka mpaka $ 65.5b ya Okutobala. Mitundu yosiyanitsa pamwezi yamilandu ya Case-Shiller idzaperekedwa, kuwerengera kochulukirapo kwa mizinda yotsogola 20 ndikuwunikidwa mosamala kwambiri, kuyembekezeredwa kukhalabe pafupi ndi chiwonetsero cha circa 5.92% chokwera mtengo wanyumba.
Kuwerenga kokhala ndi chidaliro kwa ogula pamsonkhanowu kudzafalitsidwa, kunenedweratu kuti kugwa pang'ono mpaka 124 kuchokera ku 125.9, mtengo wolemekezekawu nthawi zonse umadziwika pakusiyana kulikonse. Wosankhidwa ndi a Trump kuti alowe m'malo mwa Yellen ngati wapampando wa Fed, a Powell, adzawonekera pamaso pa komiti yakumvera ya senate. Kazembe wamkulu waku Canada ku Poloz ndi wachiwiri wake, adzachita msonkhano ndi atolankhani. Zochitika zachuma zamasiku ano mpaka zomwe zakhudzidwa kwambiri zimatsekedwa ndi omwe amagulitsa kumene ku Japan; akuyembekezeka kukhalabe pafupi ndi kukula kwa 2.2% YoY pakadali pano.
On Lachitatu Chiwerengero chaposachedwa kwambiri cha French GDP chidzaululidwa, pakadali pano pa 2.2% YoY kuwerenga uku kukuyembekezeredwa kuti kusungidwe, kapena kupitilizidwa. Mayendedwe angapo aku UK azisindikizidwa, kuphatikiza ngongole za ogula ndi kuvomereza kubweza ngongole. Kwa Eurozone timalandira zomwe zapezedwa mu Novembala pazowerengera zosiyanasiyana, makamaka kuwerenga kwa chidaliro kwa ogula kumayang'aniridwa. CPI yaku Germany idawululidwa, pakadali pano ku 1.6% YoY, ofufuza awunika chiwerengerochi poyerekeza ndi ECB ndi zolinga zake zandalama; kukankhira kukwera kwamitengo mosalekeza kulinga ku 2%. Pamene misika yaku US itsegulidwa, ziwerengero zaposachedwa za GDP zidzaululidwa, kuyerekezera kwapachaka ndikukula kuchokera ku 3.0% mpaka 3.4%. Madzulo masana Janet Yellen adzawonekera komaliza pamaso pagulu lazachuma ku Congress. Podikira kugulitsa nyumba ku USA akuyembekezeka kukwera ndi 1.0% MoM. Madzulo madzulo zachuma zatsikulo zimatha ndikufalitsa zidziwitso zosiyanasiyana zaku Japan.
Lachinayi imayamba ndikuwonetsa zambiri zaku Australia, zomwe zimadziwika bwino kwambiri ndi kubweza ngongole ndi ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito, pomwe ntchito ndi chidziwitso chazamalonda pakati pa omwe akuchita nawo bizinesi yayikulu ku New Zealand ndi Australia ziperekedwanso. Ma data aposachedwa kwambiri aku China PMI opanga adzawululidwa, monga injini ya kukula kwapadziko lonse lapansi, chiwerengerochi chimayesedwa mosamala. Pamene misika yaku Europe ikuyamba kukonzekera kutsegula ziwerengero za Swiss GDP kotala yaposachedwa ndipo chaka chilichonse zidzaululidwa, pakadali pano ziwerengero zonsezo zili pa 0.3% ndipo kuneneratu sikusiyana kwenikweni pa chiwerengerochi. Ulova waku Germany ukuyembekezeka kukhalabe pa 5.6%, pomwe kusowa kwa ntchito ku Eurozone akuti kukukhala ku 8.9%. Eurozone CPI ikuyembekezeredwa kukhalabe ku 1.4% YoY. Zambiri za USA zimafalitsidwa posachedwa; Kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama momwe munthu amagwiritsira ntchito komanso kugwiritsira ntchito kwake, ndipo chiwonetsero chachikulu cha PCE YoY chidzaululidwa, chomalizachi chikuyembekezeka kukhalabe kukula kwa 1.3%. Chakumadzulo mndandanda wambiri wofalitsidwa umasindikizidwa ndi mabungwe osiyanasiyana aku Japan, omwe amadziwika kwambiri ndi CPI, yomwe ikadali yotsalira kwambiri pagulu lotsogola la G10, pakukula kwa 0.7% YoY.
On Friday timalandira kagulu kakang'ono ka kuwerenga kwa Markit PMI kwamayiko angapo akutsogola ku Europe komanso Eurozone ngati bungwe. GDP yaku Italiya ikuyembekezeka kusunga kukula kwake kwaposachedwa kwa 1.8%. Chuma cha Canada chikuwunikidwa kwambiri Lachisanu pomwe ziwerengero zaposachedwa za GDP zikufalitsidwa, ndikuwonetsa kuti chiwerengerochi chikuwonjezeka chaka cha 4.5% mpaka pano, kuwerenga uku kukuyembekezeka kusungidwa. Ulova ku Canada akuyembekezeka kukhala pa 6.3%, pomwe opanga PMI aposachedwa akuyembekezeka kusunga mulingo wake wa 54.3. Kuwerengedwa kwa ISM kumalemekezedwa kwambiri ku USA pakati pa gulu la akatswiri, angapo amafalitsidwa madzulo ku USA, kuphatikiza kuwerenga kovuta kwa ISM, pakadali pano pa 58.7, chidule pang'ono pakuwerenga kwa Novembala mpaka 58.3 chikuyembekezeredwa.
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