CHITSANZO CHA sabata lililonse 25/01 - 29/01 | USD imagwira mpaka chaka ndi chaka ngati phindu pakati pa US
Ngakhale mabanki ambiri apakati akupitilizabe kuyendetsa ndondomeko ya ndalama ya NIRP kapena ZIRP (zonse zoyipa komanso zero chiwongola dzanja) kuti athane ndi kuwonongeka kwa mliriwu, ndalama zamayiko ena sizingasiyane kwambiri ndi miyezi ikubwerayi.
Chifukwa chake, amalonda ayenera kulimbana ndi ndalama zazikuluzikulu zomwe zimangoyenda m'mayendedwe olimba tsiku lililonse kwakanthawi kochepa mpaka malangizo omveka bwino awonekere.
Dola la DXY lawonjezeka pafupifupi 0.20% pakadali pano mu 2021. Likugulitsa pafupi ndi 90.00 level handle yomwe nthawi zambiri imawoneka kuti ndi yama psyche ovuta pomwe magulu ambiri amsika amakhala ophatikizika.
Panthawi yolemba, 9:00 am nthawi yaku UK Lachisanu, Januware 22 EUR / USD yatsika -0.31% pachaka mpaka GBP / USD ndi 0.03%. USD / JPY yakwera ndi 0.36%, ndipo USD / CHF ili pansi -0.07%. Potsutsana ndi Aussie, dola yaku US yakwera ndi 0.35% komanso motsutsana ndi Kiwi pansi -0.03%.
Tsopano oyang'anira a Trump achoka ku White House, forex, equity ndi ogulitsa katundu atha kuyembekezera nthawi yomwe ma tweets sakusuntha misika. Pakati pa nkhondo zosafunikira komanso zovuta zomwe zidachitika ku China, panali nthawi yomwe malingaliro osokonekera a Trump (omwe amaperekedwa kudzera pa media media) adapangitsa kuti misika ikwapulike ndipo nthawi zina imakumana ndi msika wogulitsa zimbalangondo.
Oyang'anira a Joe Biden sanataye nthawi kuti asinthe malingaliro ambiri ogawanitsa a Trump. Pogwira ntchito zambiri, Biden wapereka maudindo akuluakulu kuti athetse kuyankha kwa COVID-19 ndikubwezeretsanso ubale ndi mayiko ena. Akuyanjananso ndi Paris mogwirizana pakusintha kwanyengo, kusiya kuyimitsa khoma la Mexico / USA, kupereka mwayi kwa osamukira kudziko lina, ndikufikira Iran komanso mwina Venezuela.
Njira yoyendetsera bata iyi imakhudza misika yazachuma chifukwa cha USA ngati chuma chambiri padziko lapansi. SPX 500 idakwera 4.03% pamwezi ndipo NASDAQ 100 idakwera 5.52% kuyambira Lachisanu m'mawa.
Pali zizindikiro kale zakuti misika yachuma ikuyankha pazomwe zatchulidwa kalendala yazachuma m'masabata apitawa. Mwachitsanzo, zomwe zimanenedwa ndi Netflix zidapangitsa kuti mtengo wamsika ukwere mopitilira 12%. Ntchito yosakira idasangalala ndi olembetsa modabwitsa panthawiyi. Amalonda akuyang'aniranso zosankha za chiwongola dzanja, kulengeza kwamalamulo azachuma, komanso kuchuluka kwa ntchito.
Kusowa ntchito pantchito ndiye vuto lalikulu kwambiri m'bungwe la Biden. Ndizovuta kumasula zomwe zalembedwa kuti mupeze manambala osagwira ntchito. Mabungwe ena amaika okwana 18 miliyoni, ndipo ena amati pafupifupi 25 miliyoni mukamawaphatikiza ndi anthu ogwira ntchito ndi omwe amadzipangira okha omwe ataya bizinesi yawo ndi ndalama zawo. Chilichonse chomwe chimagwiritsidwa ntchito chimatsalira kuti mliri usanafike anthu omwe akusowa ntchito anali pafupifupi 5-6 miliyoni.
Mphamvu zomwe anthu amafunikira kuti agwade, atenge timitengo toduka ndikuyamba kukonzanso miyoyo yawo yomwe yasweka ndipo mabizinesi akuimira vuto lalikulu. Ngakhale misika yamalonda ikapitilizabe kusindikiza mbiri yayikulu, chuma chenicheni chidakali pa mpweya. Palibe msika wamsika, ndiye chifukwa chake chilimbikitso cha Biden cha $ 1.9 trilioni chiyenera kuthandiza mabanja omwe amalandila ndalama zochepa komanso mabanja ASAP.
Vuto lachiwiri / lachitatu la kachilombo ka COVID-19 lafika kwambiri ku Europe. Ku UK mliriwu ukuyambika, Lachitatu ku UK adalemba anthu 1,820 tsiku ndi tsiku ndikupita ku 10,000 sabata limodzi, njira zoyipa kwambiri kuyambira pomwe mliriwu udayamba mu February-Marichi 2020. Germany, yomwe idakondedwa kale chifukwa chothana ndi kachilombo ka HIV , amwalira posachedwapa patsiku oposa 1,000 patsiku.
Mliriwu wakhudza kwambiri chuma cha ku Ulaya m'miyezi yapitayi. Lachisanu anthu ogulitsa malonda ku UK adabwera m'munsi mwa ziyembekezo; Kukula kwa 0.3% mu Disembala ndikugwa kwa 2020 pafupifupi -1.5%, ziwerengero zoyipitsitsa kuyambira pomwe ogulitsa adayamba kulembedwa mu 1993.
Kuphatikizana ndi kugwa kumeneku, magetsi aposachedwa kwambiri a IHS Markit ku UK mu Januware anali odabwitsa. Reuters adaneneratu kuwerengedwa kwa 45.1, koma nambala yeniyeni idabwera 38.8. Mulingo wophatikizira udabwera 40.6, pansi pamiyeso 50 yopatula kupindika kuchokera pakukula.
Zogulitsa ndi ntchito ndiye zipilala zomwe zikuthandizira chuma ku UK, ndipo ziwonetsero zokhumudwitsa izi zikuwonetsa zovuta zomwe zimachitika pomanganso boma la UK. Posakhalitsa dziko la UK likupita ku mavuto azachuma awiri pomwe Brexit wasowa monga mutu kuchokera ku nkhani zodziwika bwino, zotsatira zake zikuyamba kukhudza malonda.
Sterling adayankha kwambiri ndi a Markit PMIs, GBP / USD idagwa kudzera mu S1 ndipo inali kugulitsa -0.53% nthawi ya 11:00 am nthawi yaku UK. Yuro idayankha bwino ma PMI a Eurozone omwe anali pafupi ndi (kapena kumenya) kuneneratu. EUR / USD yabwezeretsedwera kugulitsa pafupi, pomwe EUR / GBP imagulitsa 0.51% yomwe ikuwopseza kuphwanya R3.
Zochitika pakalendala yamawa sabata yamawa
Lolemba ndi tsiku lopanda phokoso la nkhani zapakatikati mpaka zazikulu. Mndandanda wa nyengo yamalonda ku Ifo ku Germany umamasulidwa, ndipo kunenedweratu ndikugwa kuchokera pa 92.1 mpaka 91.8, kugwa komwe kungakhudze mtengo wa EUR poyerekeza ndi anzawo azachuma.
On Lachiwiri, ONS ku UK imafalitsa ntchito zaposachedwa pantchito komanso kusowa kwa ntchito. Zomwe zanenedwa ndikuwonongeka kwa ntchito za 160K mu Okutobala, ndikukwera kwa anthu osagwira ntchito mpaka 5.1%. Kuwerengera kwa omwe akuyitanitsa kuyenera kuwonjezeka ndi 86.3K ya Disembala 2020. Komabe, zosintha zazing'ono izi zikuwonetsa kuwonongeka komwe COVID-19 yakhala nako ku UK.
Dongosolo la furlough (lomwe lidakwezedwa mpaka Epulo 2021) limalepheretsa kuwonongeka kwa ntchito koopsa. Mamiliyoni asanu ndi anayi ali pa pulaniyi, ndipo kuyerekezera kuti 30% ya ogwira ntchito sangakhalenso opanda thandizo, ndipo mabizinesi mamiliyoni anayi atha kukhala Zombies popanda mwayi wopulumuka. Ngati kuchuluka kwa ntchito / ulova kuphonya kuneneratu, GBP ikhoza kukakamizidwa.
Madzulo, index yamtengo wapatali ya Case-Shiller nyumba izisindikizidwa. Zonenedweratu kuti zikukula 8.4% pachaka, chiwonetsero chodabwitsa poganizira za mliriwu. Kuwerenga chidaliro kwa ogula ku Confederation Board ku US kukuyembekezeka kudzabwera 88 pamwezi wa Januware.
Zochitika pakalendala zazikulu za Lachitatu onjezerani zidziwitso zaposachedwa kwambiri za inflation ku Australia. AUD itha kuyankha pamalonda aku Sydney / Asia ngati chiwerengerocho chimaphonya kapena kumenya zolosera patali. Ma oda osatha (kupatula mayendedwe) ku USA mu Disembala akuyenera kuwonetsa kusintha pang'ono kufika pa 0.6%.
Pambuyo pake madzulo, USD itha kukhala yovuta pamene Federal Reserve yalengeza chiwongola dzanja chake, ndipo chiwopsezo chake chiyenera kukhala pa 0.25%. Ofufuza ndi amalonda adzangoyang'ana pamsonkhano wa atolankhani a Fed a Jerome Powell kuti awone ngati mfundo zoyendetsera ndalama zikuwunikiridwa.
A USA Lachinayi zonena zopanda ntchito sabata iliyonse zimapitilizabe zovuta zawo. Ulosiwu ndi zowonjezera zowonjezera 951K sabata iliyonse. Pokhapokha ngati kusowa kwa ntchito kutuluka, ndizosatheka kudziwa kuti chuma cha ku USA ndi anthu ake zikubwerera m'mbuyo nthawi yanji.
Chiwerengero chaposachedwa chikhoza kukhudza mtengo wa USD motsutsana ndi anzawo. Kugulitsa nyumba zatsopano za Disembala kunanenedwa kumapeto kwa gawo la New York, ndipo kunenedweratu kukuwonjezeka kufika pa 2.9%, kubwereranso kuyambira Novembala.
Early Friday m'mawa mndandanda wazambiri zaku Japan zimasindikizidwa kuphatikiza ziwerengero zaposachedwa pantchito ndi mafakitale. Zitsulo zonsezi zitha kuwonetsa kuwonongeka pang'ono komwe kungakhudze mtengo wa JPY motsutsana ndi anzawo.
M'magawo aku London-Europe, ziwerengero zaposachedwa pantchito ku Germany zimasindikizidwa monga muyeso wa Q4 2020 GDP. Ulova ukuyembekezeredwa kuti usasinthe pa 6.1%, pomwe Q4 GDP idagwa mpaka -1.2% ndipo chiwonetsero cha chaka ndi chaka chikuwonjezeka mpaka -4.6%, zomwe zikuimira kuwerenga koipa kwambiri kuyambira zaka zachuma zazikuru. Madzulo masana ndi nthawi ya gawo la New York, zambiri zamabungwe osiyanasiyana azachuma ku USA zimasindikizidwa. Kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zaumwini, ndalama zomwe mumapeza, malipiro, kugulitsa nyumba, ndi kafukufuku waku Michigan zikuwonetsa zofooka zilizonse pazolowera ku USA.
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