CHITSANZO CHA MLUNGU WAMASabata 21/12 - 24/12 | KODI MASIKO ANGAGWIRITSE NTCHITO, MAFUPA NDI ZOTHANDIZA ZIDZAKHALA BWANJI MU MLUNGU WA XMAS?
Sabata yatha Xmas mwachizolowezi nthawi yopuma yogulitsa misika yachuma, FX, ndi misika yazogulitsa. Komabe, uwu sunakhale chaka wamba. 2020 yakhala tanthauzo la chaka chodabwitsa kwambiri.
Tsoka la Coronavirus lakhala likulamulira dziko lathu lamalonda kuyambira Marichi, ndipo palibe amene akananeneratu momwe Black Swan idzafikire, kugwa pamsika kudalira pamasamba osiyanasiyana achitetezo omwe angabweretse zero-hedge.
Koma thandizo lidabwera mwachangu ngati maboma akumadzulo ndi mabanki apakati, ndikupangitsa misika yamalonda kuti izilemba. SPX 500 ikukwera 14.33% chaka chilichonse ndipo NASDAQ 100 ndi 43.83% yodabwitsa komanso yosayembekezereka.
Chaka chatsopano, ndi oyang'anira ochepa ku White House
M'zaka zaposachedwa akatswiri ambiri adayika buku lawo lamalamulo azachuma ndikuyang'ana kwambiri pazinthu monga zochitika zachuma ndi ma tweets a Trump. Kwa kanthawi muutsogoleri wake, ma tweets ake ndikupondaponda pamsika wama TV omwe amayendetsedwa.
Kulimbana kosafunikira komwe adatenga ndi China kudapangitsa kuti misika yamalonda igwe pansi kuti izikhala pamsika kumapeto kwa 2018 koyambirira kwa 2019 komanso mtengo wa USD utatsika. Adadzudzula China chifukwa chodzipangira ndalama ndipo adayamba kuwononga ndalama zambiri pazogulitsa zaku China kupita ku America. Misika yamsika yaku US idakwapula zofuna zake.
Mukadaganizira kuti wina akanamunong'oneza “Mr, Purezidenti; Sitikutsimikiza kuti izi zigwira ntchito, timaitanitsa katundu wathu wambiri kuchokera ku China, satigulira zambiri, kupatula ulimi wa soya ndi ziweto. Ndipo akaleka kugula mudzakhumudwitsa alimi omwe mudalonjeza kuti mudzawateteza m'ma lonjezo anu a chisankho cha 2016 ".
Mwakutero, akumaliza nthawi yake yolembedwa ku White House yadzudzula banki yayikulu yaku Switzerland pakusinthana ndalama, chifukwa CHF yakwera ndi 8.96% motsutsana ndi USD mu 2020. Komabe, kuyang'ana mwachidule kwa anzawo aku dollar yaku US kuyenera kuwulula kwa Trump kuti euro yapeza pafupifupi 10% poyerekeza ndi dola, Aussie yakwera 9%, yen ikukwera 5%, ndipo Index Index (DXY) yatsika -7%. Mwina, m'malingaliro mwake, zonse ndi chiwembu.
Monga akatswiri, timayesetsa kukhala opanda tsankho pandale; Komabe, Biden akangokhazikitsidwa mu Januware 2021, tonse titha kuyembekeza nthawi yakukhazikika ndi bata ku USA. Sipadzakhalanso nkhondo zamalonda, kufikira Iran, Venezuela ndi Europe, kubwezeretsa zokambirana zapadziko lonse lapansi, komanso kuchita nawo mgwirizano wapakati pa nyengo yaku Paris.
Kukulunga pamsika sabata ino
Kupepesa pasadakhale pomveka ngati mbiri yosweka koma sitili tokha popereka ndemanga pamsika posachedwa posachedwa. Nkhani zazikulu ziwiri zikulamulira misika; zomwe zatsala pang'ono kuvomerezedwa ndi Nyumba Yamalamulo ya US ndi Brexit.
Chotsitsimutsacho chili pafupi ndi mgwirizano, tsatanetsatane wamaguluwo amayang'ana momwe wamkulu ndi mwana aliyense waku US ayenera kupeza. Atsogoleri ena a Republican amaganiza kuti $ 600 pa wamkulu komanso $ 500 pa mwana aliyense ayenera kukhala okwanira ndi malire oyenerera. Ma Senema ena akukakamira $ 1,200 pa munthu wamkulu komanso $ 600 pa mwana aliyense.
Ndizosangalatsa kudziwa kuti $ 2.4 trilioni yavomerezedwa kale ndi boma la USA m'njira zosiyanasiyana. Ziwerengero zikuwonetsa kuti zomwe zimaphatikizidwa kudzera mu Fed ndi Treasury (govt) zitha kukhala zokwana $ 6 trilioni kamodzi 2020 itatha, ndikukweza ngongole zonse ku US kupitilira 125% v GDP.
Chomwe chiri chotsimikizika, ndikuti zolipiritsa zolimbitsa thupi zidzafika mochedwa kwambiri kuti zithandize anthu ambiri aku America kusangalala ndikumwa mowa kwambiri. Zogulitsa zatsika ku US, ndipo antchito ambiri sangawonongere ndalama poganiza kuti "zili bwino, ndingomanga lamba wanga mu Januware" chifukwa sadziwa ngati agwira ntchito mu Januware.
Akuluakulu makumi awiri mphambu asanu aku US alandila mtundu wa thandizo la ulova, mabanja 60% alibe ndalama zenizeni, ndipo Lachinayi 885K ina idawonjezeredwa ku kaundula wama sabata osagwira ntchito.
Zovuta; kodi sagwirizana pamgwirizano kumapeto kwa sabata?
Sabata yatha idayenera kukhala gawo lomaliza la "ndikupereka kwanga komaliza, tengani kapena musiye" saga ya Brexit. Koma nthawi yomalizira idatsika, monga zidachitikira mu Okutobala ndi Novembala. UK ndi EU agwirizana zokambirana sabata ino kuti apeze yankho.
Tonse tikudziwa kuti fudge yopulumutsa nkhope ikubwera, popeza EU ikupatsa UK mwayi wotuluka, koma nkhani yomwe idapangidwa kuti ipusitse anthu aku UK ndiyosatheka kuneneratu. Lingaliro labwino kwambiri ndilakuti mgwirizano wosasunthika, wosakakamiza umasindikizidwa, koma umachitika mpaka Januware kuti adzavotere ku khonsolo ya EU. Zomwe zimachitika patsiku la Januware 1 Brexit ndikulingalira kwa aliyense.
Zonse ndizokhudza Optics ndi boma la UK; amafunikira ovota awo kuti awawone ngati opambana. Koma nzika zaku UK zikutaya ufulu wakuyenda, ufulu womwe makolo awo adamenyera kuteteza. Kusudzulana kumeneku kuyenera kuphatikizapo nthawi yakulira ku UK; palibe chokondwerera.
Sterling yakwapula m'mizere yambiri m'masabata apitawa pomwe zokambirana zikupitilirabe, ndipo mphekesera za mgwirizano zidayamba. Lachisanu, Disembala 18, GBP / USD inali kugulitsa -0.58%, mpaka 2.15% sabata iliyonse chifukwa chakuyembekeza kuti kuyambika kunali pafupi.
Awiriwo adaphwanya 50 DMA mpaka kumapeto sabata yatha koma agulitsa pamwambapa kuyambira koyambirira kwa Novembala. Pakadali pano yomwe ili pa 1.3200 dera lino la 50 DMA ndi manambala ozungulira atha kukhala chandamale ngati zokambirana zitha popanda mgwirizano uliwonse (ngakhale wosasunthika) m'malo mwake.
Kuyang'ana mwachidule EUR / GBP pa tchati watsiku ndi tsiku kumavumbula kukula kwakukulira kwa Disembala. Nthawi ina sabata ino chitetezo chidadutsa mu 100 DMA. 50 DMA ndi mtanda wa 100 DMA wakufa udatsala pang'ono kupangidwa mkati mwa sabata pomwe kusiyana kosuntha kudachepa. Lachisanu, Disembala 18, EUR / GBP idagulitsa 0.39% ndikukwera 6.72% YTD.
Zitsulo zamtengo wapatali; malo othawirako chaka chonse
Ngati ndinu amalonda, ndizosatheka kuti musadandaule chifukwa cha zomwe simunachite chaka chino. Hei, zikadakhala kuti tikadangopitilira Zoom ndi Tesla chaka chino nthawi yovina mu Marichi kapena kugula NASDAQ 100 ngati kubetcha kotetezeka.
Kupita golide ndi siliva wautali ndikadakhala kubetcha koyang'ana kumbuyo m'miyezi yovuta yomwe tidakumana nayo. Monga malo otetezeka, ma PM onse awuka kwambiri. Golide ndi 23% YTD ndipo siliva ndi 43%. Kuphatikiza kwa zonse ziwiri, kaya zakuthupi kapena kudzera mwa broker wanu, zawonetsa kuti ndi mpanda wabwino kwambiri.
Silver yakhala ikufunidwa chifukwa ounce ndi $ 26 ndipo yotsika mpaka $ 12 mmbuyo mu Marichi. Kupeza $ 1,000 yachitsulo chinali mwayi kwa anthu ambiri aku America (omwe amakayikira dongosololi) atha kupezerapo mwayi pazocheperako. Otsatsa ena ambiri atha kukhala kuti adayikapo Bitcoin mu 2020, yomwe yafika pamasiku aposachedwa, kuphwanya 23,000.
Zochitika zazikulu zakusangalalira sabata kuyambira pa Disembala 20
Kuthamangira ku Xmas nthawi zambiri kumakhala sabata labata kuti mumve nkhani zofunika kwambiri pa zachuma. Lachiwiri UK idasindikiza ziwerengero zaposachedwa za GDP, zikuyembekezeka kuti zisasinthe kuchokera kotala yapitayi ku 15.5% QoQ ndi -9.6% YoY.
Kuwerenga kwa YoY kungapangitse UK kukhala chuma choipa kwambiri cha G7 panthawi ya mliri ngakhale GBP zankhaninkhani zothandizidwa ndi ogwira ntchito 5.5 miliyoni akulipirirabe panthawi yopuma.
Mosiyana ndi izi, kuneneratu kwa USA ndi kuchuluka kwa 33% QoQ GDP, ngakhale izi zikubwera pamtengo wokwera; Coronavirus ikuyenda mwamwambo, ndikupha pafupifupi anthu 3,000 patsiku. Lachitatu likuwonetsa kufalitsa kwa maimelo okhazikika ku USA, kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka ndalama, ndalama ndi malonda ogulitsa nyumba zatsopano, kuwerengera komwe kudzapereka chithunzi cha chidaliro cha ogula.
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