Jan 16 • Ndemanga za Msika • 6102 Views • 1 Comment pa UK Abwerera Mukubwerera Kwachuma Sanatulukemo
UK Yabwerera Mukubwereka Kwachuma Sichinatulukepo. Zoona zake USA Sisiyanasiyana
Tanthauzo la kuchepa kwachuma lasintha m'zaka zapitazi ndipo limasiyanasiyana mayiko ndi mayiko komanso kontrakitala. Ku UK Kutsika kwachuma kumatanthauzidwa ngati nthawi ziwiri zotsatizana zakukula kosafunikira. Ku USA Komiti Yokwatirana Yoyenda Pabizinesi ya National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) imawoneka ngati mphamvu yoyendetsera kuchepa kwachuma ku US. NBER ikutanthauzira kuchepa kwachuma monga:
kuchepa kwakukulu kwa zochitika zachuma kufalikira pachuma chonse, kupitilira miyezi ingapo, zomwe zimawoneka mu GDP yeniyeni, ndalama zenizeni, ntchito, kupanga mafakitale, ndi kugulitsa kwa ogulitsa ambiri.
Pafupifupi konsekonse, ophunzira, akatswiri azachuma, opanga mfundo, ndi mabizinesi amatsimikiza kutsimikiza mtima kwa NBER pakudziwitsa zenizeni zakuchepa kwachuma ndi kutha. Mwachidule ngati kukula 'kumapita molakwika' ku USA ndiye kuti dzikolo lili pachuma.
Malinga ndi akatswiri azachuma, kuyambira 1854, US yakumana ndi 32 zokulitsa ndikuchepetsa, ndikumapeto kwa miyezi 17 yachidule ndi miyezi 38 yakukula. Komabe, kuyambira 1980 pakhala nthawi zisanu ndi zitatu zokha zakukula kwachuma kopitilira gawo limodzi lazachuma kapena kupitilira apo, ndipo nthawi zinayi zimawona ngati kutsika kwachuma.
USA idatsika kuyambira 1980
Julayi 1981 - Novembala 1982: miyezi 14
Julayi 1990 - Marichi 1991: miyezi 8
Marichi 2001 - Novembala 2001: miyezi 8
Disembala 2007 - Juni 2009: miyezi 18
Pazachuma zitatu zapitazi, lingaliro la NBER latsutsana pafupifupi ndi tanthauzo la magawo awiri motsatizana. Ngakhale kutsika kwachuma kwa 2001 sikunakhudze magawo awiri motsatizana, kudatsogoleredwa ndi magawo awiri mwa magawo awiri akusokonekera komanso kukula kofooka. Kutsika kwachuma ku US mu 2007 kudatha mu Juni, 2009 pomwe dzikolo lidayamba kuyambiranso chuma.
Kuchuluka kwa anthu osowa ntchito ku US kudakwera kufika pa 8.5% mu Marichi 2009, ndipo panali kutaya ntchito miliyoni 5.1 mpaka Marichi 2009 kuyambira pomwe mavuto azachuma adayamba mu Disembala 2007. Ameneyo anali anthu pafupifupi mamiliyoni asanu osagwira ntchito poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha, chomwe chinali chachikulu kwambiri kudumpha pachaka kwa anthu osagwira ntchito kuyambira ma 1940.
Kubwezeretsa ku UK Kuyambira 1970
Pakati pa zaka za m'ma 1970 kwachuma 1973-5, zaka ziwiri (2 kuchokera pa 6 Qtr). Adatenga magawo 9 a GDP kuti abwerere m'malo oyambilira kutsika kwachuma pambuyo 'pobowola kawiri'.
Kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 1980 kutsika kwachuma 1980- 1982, zaka ziwiri (2 - 6 Qtr). Ulova ukukwera ndi 7% kuchoka pa 124% ya anthu ogwira ntchito mu Ogasiti 5.3 mpaka 1979% mu 11.9. Adatenga magawo 1984 a GDP kuti abwezeretse kumayambiliro a 13. Adatenga magawo 1980 a GDP kuti abwezeretsere kumayambiridwe azachuma.
Kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 1990 kutsika kwa zaka 1990-2 1.25 (5 Qtr). Kuchepa kwa bajeti 8% ya GDP. Ulova ukukwera 55% kuchoka pa 6.9% ya anthu ogwira ntchito mu 1990 kufika 10.7% mu 1993. Adatenga magawo 13 a GDP kuti abwezeretsere kumayambiliro azachuma.
Kumapeto kwachuma 2000, zaka 1.5, kotala 6. Zotsatira zinagwa 0.5% mu 2010 Q4. Kuchuluka kwa ulova poyamba kudakwera mpaka 8.1% (anthu 2.57m) mu Ogasiti 2011, mulingo wapamwamba kwambiri kuyambira 1994, izi zidapambanidwa. Kuyambira Okutobala 2011, pambuyo pa 14 kotala, GDP ikadali 4% kutsika kuchokera pachimake pachiyambi chachuma.
Momwe Kubwezeretsa 'Kudagulidwira'
Ziwerengero zachuma zadziko la USA 2008/2009 zikuwonetsa momwe USA idasokonekera komanso kuti 'kupita patsogolo' kwenikweni sikunachitike. Ngakhale zili choncho komanso kuti USA ikadali yachuma. Mu Marichi 2009 ulova udali 8.5%, lero ndi 8.5%. Pofika mu Marichi 2009 miliyoni 5.1 anali atachotsedwa ntchito, kuyerekezera kuti mwina ndi 9.0 miliyoni kutayika kwa ntchito kuyambira 2007-2012. Ngakhale kuyesayesa kuti ayiyese mwanjira ina palibe zochitika ngati 'kuchira kochepa pantchito', USA idakalipobe chifukwa cha kuchepa kwachuma. USA iyenera kupanga ntchito pafupifupi 400,000 pamwezi kwazaka zitatu, kuti abwerere ku 2007.
Zowona ndi ziwerengero, zokhudzana ndi kubwezeredwa ndalama, kupulumutsa ndi njira zochepetsera ku USA, zidaponyedwa kapena kukakamizidwa kudyetsedwa chifukwa cha kulowerera kwa Bloomberg kudzera m'makhothi. Kusunthira pambali ziwerengero zomwe zidalipo ngongole sizinabisike. Nzeru yolandiridwa ndikuti madola awiri aliwonse okula USA 'idagula' ngongole zisanu ndi zitatu. Kusiya kuwonongeka kwenikweni kwa mphamvu yogulira komwe kwadzetsa izi, chifukwa chakuchuma kwazinthu zobisika, umboni woti ngongoleyo idalipo yakuda ndi yoyera kuti kuchotserako ndichinyengo.
Ngongole idakwezedwa ndi 40% kuyambira 2008. Chiwerengerochi chikusonyeza kuti $ 5.2 trilioni yayikulu yatulutsidwa kuti ichiritse 'kuchira, kuchira komwe kukuwonekerabe muyeso wosangalatsa kwambiri wa ulova pomwe udayambira , pa 3%. Ngakhale kupulumutsidwa konse (mobisa kapena kusindikizidwa) mapulogalamu a 'tarp' ndi ngongole zanyumba zikukweza USA ndizabwino, ergo sinatulukepo pachuma, ntchito yabodza yolumikizana ndi anthu yapangidwa.
Kuyerekeza kwa ku UK ndikofanana kwambiri, monganso aku Europe. Kusowa kwa ntchito ku UK kuli pa 8.5%, komabe manambala osagwira ntchito ali pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri m'zaka khumi ndi zisanu ndi ziwiri ndipo malinga ndi kafukufuku wa boma pali mabanja 3.9 miliyoni omwe alibe 'olandila malipiro'. Pali circa 4.8 ml UK achikulire omwe sapindula ndi ntchito ndi 400,000 ntchito zomwe zimapezeka nthawi iliyonse. Ndipo pogwira ntchito pafupifupi 20 miliyoni kupezeka kwa ntchitoyi kukuyimira kuchuluka kwa 'churn', 2%. Zofanana ndi USA, koma pang'ono, maboma onse aku UK adayesa 'kugula njira yawo', kusiya UK ndi chiwongola dzanja chophatikiza cha GDP v 900%, koyipitsitsa ku Europe komwe (monga pambali) ndi chifukwa chomwe olemba ndemanga komanso andale aku Europe amakayikira kuchuluka kwa AAA ku UK.
http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimony/12-15-11_TARP_Sanders_Testimony.pdf
Chowonadi ku UK ndi USA ndikuti sanasiye kutsika kwachuma, ndipo monga ambiri adanenera (pambuyo poti chaka cha 2008 chachitika) poyesera kupewa kuchepa kwachuma mphamvu zomwe zakonzedwa kumayiko onse kukhumudwa ngati dziko lomwe silinawonekepo kuyambira pamenepo cha m'ma 1930.
Ngati ndingathe kubwereka mawu aku America ku UK, atsogoleri andale aku Europe ndi USA akuyenera 'kukomoka' pagulu lawo potengera momwe zinthu ziliri pano. Pomwe kusankhidwanso kwakanthawi ndicholinga chawo, chidziwikebe nchakuti madera onse akhalabe m'malo azachuma kwazaka zinayi. Ngakhale kulowetsedwa kwakukulu kwakapangidwe kazandalama kuyambira pomwe mabanki amakono adayambitsidwa 'kukula', monga momwe zimayesedwa ndi zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri; ntchito, zapamwamba, ndalama zochepa, sizinachitike.
Ngati titachotsa phukusi lathunthu ndikunyalanyaza zovuta zake, USA tsopano mwina ndi mwezi wawo wachuma wa 48, UK ndi Europe ali mu 35-37th, ndikupangitsa kuti kutsutsaku kukhale koipitsitsa munthawi zamakono 'zolembedwa'. Mabungwe onse atatu angafune kulingalira zokambirana moona mtima komanso mosapita m'mbali ndi omwe adzawavotere asadasiyanitse pakati pa zenizeni ndi kusandulika kukhala kopanda malire monga ziwerengero zawo zosocheretsa komanso zosocheretsa.
Kutsika kwachumaukUSA
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UK Yabwereranso Mukubwereka Kwachuma Sanatulukemo
Jan 16 • Ndemanga za Msika • 6102 Views • 1 Comment pa UK Abwerera Mukubwerera Kwachuma Sanatulukemo
UK Yabwerera Mukubwereka Kwachuma Sichinatulukepo. Zoona zake USA Sisiyanasiyana
Tanthauzo la kuchepa kwachuma lasintha m'zaka zapitazi ndipo limasiyanasiyana mayiko ndi mayiko komanso kontrakitala. Ku UK Kutsika kwachuma kumatanthauzidwa ngati nthawi ziwiri zotsatizana zakukula kosafunikira. Ku USA Komiti Yokwatirana Yoyenda Pabizinesi ya National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) imawoneka ngati mphamvu yoyendetsera kuchepa kwachuma ku US. NBER ikutanthauzira kuchepa kwachuma monga:
kuchepa kwakukulu kwa zochitika zachuma kufalikira pachuma chonse, kupitilira miyezi ingapo, zomwe zimawoneka mu GDP yeniyeni, ndalama zenizeni, ntchito, kupanga mafakitale, ndi kugulitsa kwa ogulitsa ambiri.
Pafupifupi konsekonse, ophunzira, akatswiri azachuma, opanga mfundo, ndi mabizinesi amatsimikiza kutsimikiza mtima kwa NBER pakudziwitsa zenizeni zakuchepa kwachuma ndi kutha. Mwachidule ngati kukula 'kumapita molakwika' ku USA ndiye kuti dzikolo lili pachuma.
Malinga ndi akatswiri azachuma, kuyambira 1854, US yakumana ndi 32 zokulitsa ndikuchepetsa, ndikumapeto kwa miyezi 17 yachidule ndi miyezi 38 yakukula. Komabe, kuyambira 1980 pakhala nthawi zisanu ndi zitatu zokha zakukula kwachuma kopitilira gawo limodzi lazachuma kapena kupitilira apo, ndipo nthawi zinayi zimawona ngati kutsika kwachuma.
USA idatsika kuyambira 1980
Julayi 1981 - Novembala 1982: miyezi 14
Julayi 1990 - Marichi 1991: miyezi 8
Marichi 2001 - Novembala 2001: miyezi 8
Disembala 2007 - Juni 2009: miyezi 18
Pazachuma zitatu zapitazi, lingaliro la NBER latsutsana pafupifupi ndi tanthauzo la magawo awiri motsatizana. Ngakhale kutsika kwachuma kwa 2001 sikunakhudze magawo awiri motsatizana, kudatsogoleredwa ndi magawo awiri mwa magawo awiri akusokonekera komanso kukula kofooka. Kutsika kwachuma ku US mu 2007 kudatha mu Juni, 2009 pomwe dzikolo lidayamba kuyambiranso chuma.
Kuchuluka kwa anthu osowa ntchito ku US kudakwera kufika pa 8.5% mu Marichi 2009, ndipo panali kutaya ntchito miliyoni 5.1 mpaka Marichi 2009 kuyambira pomwe mavuto azachuma adayamba mu Disembala 2007. Ameneyo anali anthu pafupifupi mamiliyoni asanu osagwira ntchito poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha, chomwe chinali chachikulu kwambiri kudumpha pachaka kwa anthu osagwira ntchito kuyambira ma 1940.
Kubwezeretsa ku UK Kuyambira 1970
Pakati pa zaka za m'ma 1970 kwachuma 1973-5, zaka ziwiri (2 kuchokera pa 6 Qtr). Adatenga magawo 9 a GDP kuti abwerere m'malo oyambilira kutsika kwachuma pambuyo 'pobowola kawiri'.
Kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 1980 kutsika kwachuma 1980- 1982, zaka ziwiri (2 - 6 Qtr). Ulova ukukwera ndi 7% kuchoka pa 124% ya anthu ogwira ntchito mu Ogasiti 5.3 mpaka 1979% mu 11.9. Adatenga magawo 1984 a GDP kuti abwezeretse kumayambiliro a 13. Adatenga magawo 1980 a GDP kuti abwezeretsere kumayambiridwe azachuma.
Kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 1990 kutsika kwa zaka 1990-2 1.25 (5 Qtr). Kuchepa kwa bajeti 8% ya GDP. Ulova ukukwera 55% kuchoka pa 6.9% ya anthu ogwira ntchito mu 1990 kufika 10.7% mu 1993. Adatenga magawo 13 a GDP kuti abwezeretsere kumayambiliro azachuma.
Kumapeto kwachuma 2000, zaka 1.5, kotala 6. Zotsatira zinagwa 0.5% mu 2010 Q4. Kuchuluka kwa ulova poyamba kudakwera mpaka 8.1% (anthu 2.57m) mu Ogasiti 2011, mulingo wapamwamba kwambiri kuyambira 1994, izi zidapambanidwa. Kuyambira Okutobala 2011, pambuyo pa 14 kotala, GDP ikadali 4% kutsika kuchokera pachimake pachiyambi chachuma.
Momwe Kubwezeretsa 'Kudagulidwira'
Ziwerengero zachuma zadziko la USA 2008/2009 zikuwonetsa momwe USA idasokonekera komanso kuti 'kupita patsogolo' kwenikweni sikunachitike. Ngakhale zili choncho komanso kuti USA ikadali yachuma. Mu Marichi 2009 ulova udali 8.5%, lero ndi 8.5%. Pofika mu Marichi 2009 miliyoni 5.1 anali atachotsedwa ntchito, kuyerekezera kuti mwina ndi 9.0 miliyoni kutayika kwa ntchito kuyambira 2007-2012. Ngakhale kuyesayesa kuti ayiyese mwanjira ina palibe zochitika ngati 'kuchira kochepa pantchito', USA idakalipobe chifukwa cha kuchepa kwachuma. USA iyenera kupanga ntchito pafupifupi 400,000 pamwezi kwazaka zitatu, kuti abwerere ku 2007.
Zowona ndi ziwerengero, zokhudzana ndi kubwezeredwa ndalama, kupulumutsa ndi njira zochepetsera ku USA, zidaponyedwa kapena kukakamizidwa kudyetsedwa chifukwa cha kulowerera kwa Bloomberg kudzera m'makhothi. Kusunthira pambali ziwerengero zomwe zidalipo ngongole sizinabisike. Nzeru yolandiridwa ndikuti madola awiri aliwonse okula USA 'idagula' ngongole zisanu ndi zitatu. Kusiya kuwonongeka kwenikweni kwa mphamvu yogulira komwe kwadzetsa izi, chifukwa chakuchuma kwazinthu zobisika, umboni woti ngongoleyo idalipo yakuda ndi yoyera kuti kuchotserako ndichinyengo.
Ngongole idakwezedwa ndi 40% kuyambira 2008. Chiwerengerochi chikusonyeza kuti $ 5.2 trilioni yayikulu yatulutsidwa kuti ichiritse 'kuchira, kuchira komwe kukuwonekerabe muyeso wosangalatsa kwambiri wa ulova pomwe udayambira , pa 3%. Ngakhale kupulumutsidwa konse (mobisa kapena kusindikizidwa) mapulogalamu a 'tarp' ndi ngongole zanyumba zikukweza USA ndizabwino, ergo sinatulukepo pachuma, ntchito yabodza yolumikizana ndi anthu yapangidwa.
Kuyerekeza kwa ku UK ndikofanana kwambiri, monganso aku Europe. Kusowa kwa ntchito ku UK kuli pa 8.5%, komabe manambala osagwira ntchito ali pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri m'zaka khumi ndi zisanu ndi ziwiri ndipo malinga ndi kafukufuku wa boma pali mabanja 3.9 miliyoni omwe alibe 'olandila malipiro'. Pali circa 4.8 ml UK achikulire omwe sapindula ndi ntchito ndi 400,000 ntchito zomwe zimapezeka nthawi iliyonse. Ndipo pogwira ntchito pafupifupi 20 miliyoni kupezeka kwa ntchitoyi kukuyimira kuchuluka kwa 'churn', 2%. Zofanana ndi USA, koma pang'ono, maboma onse aku UK adayesa 'kugula njira yawo', kusiya UK ndi chiwongola dzanja chophatikiza cha GDP v 900%, koyipitsitsa ku Europe komwe (monga pambali) ndi chifukwa chomwe olemba ndemanga komanso andale aku Europe amakayikira kuchuluka kwa AAA ku UK.
http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimony/12-15-11_TARP_Sanders_Testimony.pdf
Chowonadi ku UK ndi USA ndikuti sanasiye kutsika kwachuma, ndipo monga ambiri adanenera (pambuyo poti chaka cha 2008 chachitika) poyesera kupewa kuchepa kwachuma mphamvu zomwe zakonzedwa kumayiko onse kukhumudwa ngati dziko lomwe silinawonekepo kuyambira pamenepo cha m'ma 1930.
Ngati ndingathe kubwereka mawu aku America ku UK, atsogoleri andale aku Europe ndi USA akuyenera 'kukomoka' pagulu lawo potengera momwe zinthu ziliri pano. Pomwe kusankhidwanso kwakanthawi ndicholinga chawo, chidziwikebe nchakuti madera onse akhalabe m'malo azachuma kwazaka zinayi. Ngakhale kulowetsedwa kwakukulu kwakapangidwe kazandalama kuyambira pomwe mabanki amakono adayambitsidwa 'kukula', monga momwe zimayesedwa ndi zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri; ntchito, zapamwamba, ndalama zochepa, sizinachitike.
Ngati titachotsa phukusi lathunthu ndikunyalanyaza zovuta zake, USA tsopano mwina ndi mwezi wawo wachuma wa 48, UK ndi Europe ali mu 35-37th, ndikupangitsa kuti kutsutsaku kukhale koipitsitsa munthawi zamakono 'zolembedwa'. Mabungwe onse atatu angafune kulingalira zokambirana moona mtima komanso mosapita m'mbali ndi omwe adzawavotere asadasiyanitse pakati pa zenizeni ndi kusandulika kukhala kopanda malire monga ziwerengero zawo zosocheretsa komanso zosocheretsa.
Kutsika kwachumaukUSA
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