Chiwerengero cha Eurozone GDP chotulutsidwa Lachiwiri, chitha kuwongolera malingaliro a ECB ku 2018
Lachiwiri m'mawa ndi gawo lotanganidwa kwambiri pamasinthidwe azakalendala azachuma. Musanasunthire kumasulidwa kwa tsikulo; GDP ya Eurozone, ndikofunikira kuti tiphimbe mwachangu zonse zomwe zimatulutsidwa, kapena isanakwane 10:00 am GMT.
Chiwerengero cha GDP chaposachedwa ku Germany chasindikizidwa, chikuyembekezeka kubwera pa 2.3% Kukula kwa YoY mu Q3, izi zikuyimira kusintha kuchokera ku 2.1% yolembedwa mu Q2. Ngati zikufanana ndikukula kolimba pamene chiwerengerochi cha Eurozone GDP chikasindikizidwa, chiwerengerocho chingapereke chidaliro kwa omwe amapanga mfundo zandalama komanso ndalama zaku Eurozone, kuti asinthe mu 2018. Atavutika nthawi yayikulu mzaka zaposachedwa, Italy ikuwonetsanso zizindikiro za kuchira kwamphamvu; GDP ikuyembekezeka kubwera pa 1.7% ya Q3, kuchokera 1.5% mu Q2. Monga chuma chotsogola ndikupanga kunja, ndikubanki komwe kumathandizanso, zopereka ku Italy pakukula kwa Eurozone sikuyenera kunyalanyazidwa.
Chuma cha UK chidzakhala pansi pa maikulosikopu Lachiwiri pomwe ziwerengero zaposachedwa kwambiri za inflation zimatulutsidwa, kuwerenga kodziwika kwambiri ndi metric ya CPI. Chiyembekezo ndichakuti CPI idakwera mpaka 3.1% YoY mu Okutobala, kuchokera ku 3% yolembedwa Seputembala. Banki yayikulu yaku UK BoE idakweza mitengo yakomwe ndi 0.25% mpaka 0.5% koyambirira kwa mwezi uno (Novembala 2), poyesa kuthana ndi mavuto azachuma. Amayembekezera kuti mapaundi angakwere motsutsana ndi anzawo ndi chiwongola dzanja, kuti muchepetse kutsika kwachuma.
Komabe, mapaundi adalephera kukwera, chifukwa kukwera kwamitengo inali kale pamtengo, chifukwa chitsogozo chamtsogolo chomwe chidaperekedwa kale ndi nkhani ya BoE, yomwe ikusonyeza kuti kukwera kwa 0.25% kungakhale kotsika; Kukwera sikungatanthauze kuwombera mfuti kuti mitengo yoyambira ikwezedwe mwadongosolo mu 2018. Kulowerera kwa mitengo ku UK ikuyembekezeka kutsika kwambiri kuchoka pa 8.4% mpaka 4.7%, nawonso akatswiri owerengera ayenera kuyang'anitsitsa, chifukwa kuphatikiza ndi metric ya CPI, zikuwonetsa ngati zovuta zakunja kwa UK zikuyenda bwino.
Pamene tikupita pazambiri za Eurozone kafukufuku waposachedwa wa ZEW ku Germany ndi Eurozone amaperekedwa pazomwe zikuchitika komanso momwe chuma chilili, pomwe gulu losangalatsa la ma bank bank apakati likuchitika ngati gulu la ECB; Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda ndi Carney, omwe amakumana ndikuyankhula ku Frankfurt.
Mmawa wathu wopatsa chidwi wotulutsa zofunikira ku Europe, watseka pomwe msonkhano uno ukuchitika, ndikutulutsa chiwerengero chaposachedwa cha Q3 cha Eurozone GDP. Chiyembekezo ndichakuti chiwerengero cha Q3 chidzalemba kukula kwa 0.6%, pomwe chiwonetsero cha YoY chikusungabe kukula kwakukula kwa 2.5%. Ngati Germany, Italy ndi kusindikiza kwa Eurozone kolimbikitsa ziwerengero zakukula kwa GDP, ndiye kuti akatswiri ndi amalonda angaganize kuti Mario Draghi ndi ECB tsopano ali ndi zida zofunikira kuti ayambitse pulogalamu yowogulira chuma yomwe ikuchitika masiku ano.
Kuphatikiza apo, kulingalira kungaperekedwe pakuchepetsa gawo limodzi lamasiku ano pamagulu ake azachuma. Zachidziwikire, zisankho zoterezi mwina sizingafanane ndi Draghi polankhula ndi msonkhano ndi omwe amakhala nawo kubanki yayikulu, koma ndizotheka kuti ngati ziwerengero zitatu za GDP zili zamphamvu, funso lidzatuluka. Pomwe ndalama za USA Fed zitha kukwera mu Disembala, pomwe FOMC ikumana komaliza ku 2017 ndipo UK BoE ikukwezanso mitengo, funso likadali loti "ECB ingapewe kutsatira izi nthawi yayitali bwanji?" Komabe, kodi yuro yolimba pang'ono ingapweteketse kukula kwachuma kwaposachedwa, kusangalatsidwa ndi dera?
Tsikuli limatha ndikutulutsa kwaposachedwa GDP yaku Japan. Pakadali pano pa 2.5%, kunenedweratu ndikugwa kwa 1.5% kwa Q3. Pomwe izi zitha kuyimira kugwa kwakukulu, chilichonse pa yen chingasinthidwe, ngati kugwa kwakhala kukugulitsidwa kale m'misika.
MITUNDU YA EUROZONE YOFUNIKA KWAMBIRI YA Zachuma
• Mtengo wama inflation wa 1.4%.
• Boma. ngongole v GDP 89.2%.
• Kukula kwa GDP pachaka 2.5%.
• Kuchuluka kwa ntchito 8.9%.
Chiwongola dzanja cha 0.0%.
Wophatikiza PMI 56.
• Kukula kwa malonda ogulitsa YOY 3.7%.
• Ngongole zapakhomo ndi GDP 58.5%.
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