Malamulo akulu a Nassim Taleb a upangiri wogulitsa zala

Epulo 3 • Pakati pa mizere • 14265 Views • 1 Comment pa malamulo akulu a Nassim Taleb a upangiri wa malonda a zala

Nthawi ndi nthawi ndikofunikira kuyang'ana m'malingaliro a ena mwa: 'amalonda odziwika', olemba nkhani komanso oganiza bwino muzamalonda athu, kuti tiwone zomwe malingaliro awo ali pazinthu zambiri zamalonda zomwe timakumana nazo tsiku ndi tsiku. maziko. Chofunikira kwambiri ndikuthekera kwawo kungodula zolemba zomwe zalembedwa pamakampani athu ndi "kufika pozindikira". Zili ngati kuti zimene akumana nazo pazaka zambiri zatsikira mwina zosaposa khumi ndi ziwiri mfundo zomveka bwino, zofunika komanso zazifupi zomwe zingakonze maganizo ndi zizolowezi zathu zolakwika nthawi yomweyo. Mark Douglas akwanitsa kuchita izi m'buku lake labwino kwambiri "Trading in the Zone" pomwe malingaliro ndi zikhulupiriro zake zakhala zodziwika bwino pamakampani athu.

Koma m'nkhaniyi ndi chimphona china chazamalonda chomwe tikufuna kuyang'ana kwambiri - Nassim Taleb* yemwe adasindikiza "malamulo asanu ndi anayi" mu zomwe zimatchedwa "Trader Risk Management Lore". Owerenga pafupipafupi m'magawo awa awona kuti (mwangozi kapena mwangozi) tafotokoza zambiri zomwe ananena m'nkhani zosawerengeka zomwe tapanga. Kuphatikiza apo, owerenga azindikira kukhazikika kwa Taleb, kumalire ndi kutengeka mtima, zokhudzana ndi chiwopsezo chonse komanso kasamalidwe ka ndalama, mutu womwe umangobwerezabwereza m'nkhani zathu zambiri. M'munsi mwa nkhaniyi tadula ndime zingapo kuchokera ku Wikipedia zokhudzana ndi Taleb ndi amalonda omwe ali m'dera lathu omwe akufunafuna zowerengera kuti athetse nthawi pakati pa malonda ndi kupanga njira yowonjezereka komanso yokhudzana ndi malonda athu. tikupangira kuwerenga mabuku a Taleb kuphatikiza Black Swan ndi Fooled By Randomness. Buku loyamba lopanda luso la Taleb, Kupusitsidwa ndi Mwachisawawa, ponena za kunyalanyaza udindo wa chisawawa m'moyo, pafupi ndi nthawi yofanana ndi kuukira kwa September 11, adasankhidwa ndi Fortune monga mmodzi mwa mabuku anzeru kwambiri a 75 omwe amadziwika. Buku lake lachiwiri losakhala laukadaulo, The Black Swan, lonena za zochitika zosayembekezereka, lidasindikizidwa mu 2007, likugulitsa makope pafupifupi 3 miliyoni (kuyambira February 2011). Zinakhala milungu 36 pa mndandanda wa New York Times Bestseller, 17 ngati yachikuto cholimba ndi masabata 19 ngati mapepala a pepala ndipo anamasuliridwa m'zinenero 31. Black Swan yadziwika kuti idalosera zavuto lakubanki komanso zachuma mu 2008.

Lore Trader Risk Management: Malamulo Aakulu a Taleb a Thumb

Lamulo 1- Osapita kumisika ndi zinthu zomwe simukuzimvetsa. Udzakhala bakha wokhala. Lamulo la 2- Kugunda kwakukulu komwe mudzatengeko sikungafanane ndi komwe mudatenga komaliza. Osamvera kumvana komwe kuli zoopsa (ndiko kuti, zoopsa zomwe zikuwonetsedwa ndi VAR). Zomwe zingakupwetekeni ndi zomwe mumayembekezera. Lamulo la 3- Khulupirirani theka la zomwe mukuwerenga, palibe zomwe mukumva. Osaphunzira nthanthi musanachite zomwe mukuwona komanso kuganiza kwanu. Werengani gawo lililonse la kafukufuku wamalingaliro omwe mungathe-koma khalani ochita malonda. Kufufuza kosayang'aniridwa kwa njira zochepetsera kungakuwonongeni kuzindikira kwanu.

Lamulo la 4- Chenjerani ndi amalonda osapanga malonda omwe amapeza ndalama zokhazikika-amakonda kuphulika. Amalonda omwe amawonongeka pafupipafupi atha kukuvulazani, koma sangakuvuteni. Amalonda aatali osakhazikika amataya ndalama masiku ambiri a sabata. (Dzina lophunzira: zitsanzo zazing'ono za chiŵerengero cha Sharpe). Lamulo la 5- Misika idzatsata njira yopweteketsa chiwerengero chachikulu cha hedgers. Ma hedge abwino kwambiri ndi omwe inu nokha mumayika. Lamulo la 6- Musalole kuti tsiku lipite popanda kuphunzira kusintha kwamitengo ya zida zonse zomwe zilipo. Mupanga malingaliro achilengedwe omwe ali amphamvu kuposa ziwerengero wamba. Lamulo la 7- Cholakwika chachikulu kwambiri: "Chochitika ichi sichichitika pamsika wanga." Zambiri zomwe sizinachitikepo pamsika wina zachitika mumsika wina. Mfundo yakuti munthu sanamwalirepo sichimamupangitsa kukhala wosakhoza kufa. (Dzina lophunzira: Vuto la Hume la kulowetsa). Lamulo lachisanu ndi chitatu - Osawoloka mtsinje chifukwa ndi pafupifupi 8 mapazi akuya. Lamulo la 4- Werengani buku lililonse la amalonda kuti aphunzire komwe adataya ndalama. Simudzaphunzira chilichonse chokhudza phindu lawo (misika imasintha). Mudzaphunzira pa zotayika zawo.

* Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ndi wolemba nkhani waku Lebanon waku America, katswiri komanso wowerengera, yemwe ntchito yake imayang'ana pazovuta zachisawawa, zotheka komanso kusatsimikizika. Buku lake la 2007 The Black Swan linafotokozedwa mu ndemanga ya Sunday Times ngati imodzi mwa mabuku khumi ndi awiri otchuka kwambiri kuyambira nkhondo yachiwiri ya padziko lonse. Taleb ndi wolemba wogulitsidwa kwambiri ndipo wakhala pulofesa ku mayunivesite angapo, panopa Pulofesa Wodziwika wa Risk Engineering ku New York University Polytechnic School of Engineering. Iye wakhalanso katswiri wa masamu finance, hedge fund manager, derivatives trader, ndipo panopa ndi mlangizi wa sayansi ku Universa Investments ndi International Monetary Fund. Iye adadzudzula njira zoyendetsera ngozi zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi makampani azachuma ndikuchenjeza za zovuta zachuma, zomwe zidapindula ndi mavuto azachuma kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2000. Amalimbikitsa anthu omwe amawatcha kuti "black swan robust" kutanthauza gulu lomwe lingathe kupirira zochitika zovuta kulosera. Amapanga "anti-fragility" mu machitidwe, ndiko kuti, kuthekera kopindula ndi kukula kuchokera ku gulu lina la zochitika mwachisawawa, zolakwika, ndi kusakhazikika komanso "convex tinkering" monga njira yotulukira sayansi, yomwe amatanthauza kuti Kuyesera ngati njira kumapambana, kafukufuku wolunjika.   

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