M'MAWA KUGWIRITSA NTCHITO
Kukhala ndi chiyembekezo kwa ogulitsa kudzafika pachaka cha 2011, popeza umboni wa Janet Yellen umalimbikitsa misika yaku USA kukhala yatsopano
"Chilichonse ndichabwino" ndi mawu oseketsa komanso oseketsa omwe ambiri opandukira ndalama ndi akatswiri, amagwiritsa ntchito kufotokoza misika pomwe akuwoneka kuti ali pachisokonezo. Koma monga azachuma ambiri odziwa bwino amangodziwa kwambiri; “Misika imatha kukhala yopanda tanthauzo nthawi yayitali kuposa momwe mungasungire zosungunulira” - J. Maynard Keynes. Katswiri wachuma wotchuka adatinso; “Zambiri zanga zikasintha, ndimasintha malingaliro anga. Mukutani bwana? ” Mavesi onsewa akuyenera kuwonedwa ngati ofunika posankha ndalama.
Kodi ndi ntchito yathu kuneneratu za misika, kuyesa kuwachepetsa, kugulitsa m'matumbo mwathu, kapena kungogulitsa zomwe timawona osati zomwe timaganiza? Kaya tikuganiza kuti dola ndi zikuluzikulu zazikulu zaku USA ndizochulukirapo, msika "ndi zomwe zili". Ndi 'ntchito' yathu (mophweka) kupindula ndi mayendedwe.
Lachiwiri Eurozone idasindikiza zina zokhudzana ndi momwe chuma chikuyendera ku Germany, kuchuluka kwa GDP pachaka komwe sikunasinthidwe nyengo kudabwera 1.2%, kusowa ziyembekezo komanso pansi pa 1.5% yowerengera kale. Chiwerengero cha kotala chinali 0.4%. Momwemonso kuwerenga kwa GDP yaku Italiya kunasowa momwe akunenedweratu, ndikubwera pa 0.2% kotala lomaliza la 2016 ndi 1.1% pachaka.
Nkhani zambiri ku Europe zimakhudza chuma cha UK; ngakhale ziwerengero zakuchulukirachulukira zimasowa pang'ono kuyerekezera, zikubwera pa 1.8% pachaka, uwu ndiwokwera kwambiri kuyambira pakati pa 2014 ndikukwera kwakukulu kuchokera ku benign 0.5% pazaka zambiri za 2016. pofika kumapeto kwa chaka cha 4. Pomwe kukwera mitengo kwa malonda, komwe kumasindikizidwa pa 2017%, kumatha kuphwanya 2.9% chaka cha 5 chisanatseke, ndikuposa kukwera kwa malipiro a circa 2017%. Zobisika pansi pa manambala amutu zinali zowopsa; mitengo yolipidwa ndi mafakitale aku UK yamafuta ndi zida idakwera pamlingo wapachaka wa 2.7%, kudumpha kwakukulu kuyambira 20.5, ndikuwonjezera umboni pakukhulupirira kuti kukwera kwaposachedwa kwa UK pakupanga ndi kutumiza kunja kwakhala pa nthawi yobwereka.
Kafukufuku wolemekezedwa wa ZEW, wokhudza malingaliro aku Germany ndi Eurozone, adasindikiza kuwerengera kotsika kwambiri kuposa momwe amayembekezera Lachiwiri. Kuwerengedwa kwamalingaliro a Eurozone kudabwera 17.1, kugwa kuchokera ku 23.2 m'mbuyomu, pomwe kafukufuku waku Germany adafika ku 10.4, osasowa kuyerekeza kwa 15 patali. Komabe, ku USA, malingaliro azamalonda ndiabwino kwambiri.
Malinga ndi kafukufuku waposachedwa wa Merrill Lynch 23% ya omwe amagulitsa ndalama amayembekeza "kuwonjezeka" mu 2017. Ziwerengero zomwe zikuyembekeza kukula kwakanthawi zatsika mpaka 43%. Ndipo siangogulitsa okha omwe ali ndi chidwi chambiri pankhani zachuma ku USA; National Federation Of Independent Businesses yanena za chiyembekezo chomwe sichinachitikepo kwazaka zopitilira khumi. Tsopano popeza akatswiri azachuma ambiri amaganiza kuti mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono ndi omwe akupangitsa kuti chuma cha ku America chikule, nkhaniyi imayenera kulandira ngongole zambiri ndikufotokozedwa.
Mwazidziwikiratu mabungwe akuluakulu aku USA adayankha bwino umboni wa Janet Yellen pamaso pa opanga malamulo pofika pachimake. Adanenanso moyenera kuti mitengo idzauka posachedwa pambuyo pake. SPX idatseka pa 2,337, DJIA ku 20,504 ndi NASDAQ ku 5,782. Ku Europe DAX idatsekedwa, CAC yaku France idatseka 0.16% ndipo FTSE 100 yaku UK idatseka 0.14%, popeza kuchuluka kwa inflation kudachepetsa malingaliro aposachedwa.
Golide anali 0.2% mpaka $ 1,228 Lachiwiri, atavutika ndikugulitsidwa kwa 0.7% Lolemba. Zitsulo zikuchita mwanjira yapamwamba yoika pachiwopsezo pamafashoni akuluakulu pamalingaliro. Siliva adatseka pang'ono patsikulo pa $ 17.945.
Sterling poyamba adagulitsidwa motsutsana ndi anzawo akulu nthawi yamalonda Lachiwiri chifukwa chazambiri zakusowa kwamanenedwe, pomaliza poti BoE ibweza mitengo yotsika mpaka inflation itaphwanya mulingo woposa 2%. Komabe, kupatula kutengera dollar yaku USA, ma sterling adachira poyerekeza ndi anzawo ambiri. GBP / USD kutsiriza tsikulo pafupifupi 0.5% pafupifupi 1.2470. EUR / USD yofooketsedwa ndi circa 0.2% pa 1.0577.
Zochitika pa kalendala yachuma Lachitatu 15th February, nthawi zonse zomwe zatchulidwa ndi nthawi ya London (GMT)
09: 30, ndalama zomwe zidapanga GBP. Mlingo Wosowa Ntchito ku ILO (3M) (DEC). Kusowa kwa ntchito ku UK kumayembekezeka kukhalabe 4.8%. Kupatuka kulikonse kuchokera pa izi kumatha kukhudza mtengo wamtengo wapatali.
09: 30, ndalama zomwe zidapanga GBP. Kupeza Kwa Sabata Sabata (3M / YoY) (DEC). Zopeza za inflation zapachaka zikuyenda pa 2.7%. Chifukwa cha kukwera mitengo kwa malonda kwa 2.9%, ndalama zochepa zogulira ogula zitha kugunda mainjini akulu aku UK; ntchito yothandizira ndi kugulitsa pamwezi ikubwerayi.
13: 30, ndalama zomwe zidapanga USD. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN). Kukwera kwamadzi pachaka ku USA kunanenedweratu kuti kukwera mpaka 2.4%, kuchokera ku 2.1% kale.
13: 30, ndalama zomwe zidapanga USD. Kugulitsa Kwakugulitsa Kwakutsogolo (JAN). Kugulitsa kwamalonda kumanenedweratu kubwera mkati mwa 0.1%, kuchokera ku 0.6% kale.
14: 15, ndalama zomwe zidapanga USD. Industrial Production (JAN). Kuneneraku ndikukula kwa zero, kuchokera ku 0.8% m'mbuyomu.
15: 00, ndalama zomwe zidapanga USD. Fed Chairman Yellen Amapereka Umboni Wa Semi-Pachaka ku Nyumba Yapanja. Janet Yellen amamaliza umboni wake pamaso pa opanga malamulo ku USA.
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