Otsatsa adzatembenukira ku chiwonetsero chotsika kwambiri cha Eurozone, chifukwa cha nkhawa za ECB pankhani yamtengo wapatali wa yuro
Lachitatu pa Okutobala 28th, nthawi ya 10:00 am GMT (nthawi yaku London), kuyerekezera kwaposachedwa kwa Eurozone CPI (kukwera kwamitengo ya ogula) kudzatulutsidwa. Zomwe zanenedwa, zomwe zapezeka potenga lingaliro logwirizana kuchokera kwa akatswiri azachuma ambiri, zaneneratu za kugwa kwa 1.2% YoY ya February, kuchokera ku 1.3% yomwe idalembedwa mpaka Januware 2018. Chiwerengero cha inflation pamwezi wa Januware (MoM) chidadabwitsa misika, ndikubwera ku -0.9%, atakwera 0.4% mu Disembala.
Chiwerengerochi chikuyembekezeredwa mwachidwi ndi osunga ndalama komanso amalonda, chifukwa cha zokambirana zosiyanasiyana pazachuma, pokhudzana ndi kudzipereka komwe ECB yapereka kuti ichoke mu APP (pulogalamu yogulira katundu chaka chino). Malinga ndi kutsogolera komwe gulu la Mario Draghi lidapereka mu 2017, ECB ikufuna kuyika dongosolo la (mtundu wa zochepetsera zochulukirapo) mwamphamvu kwambiri m'zigawo zitatu zoyambirira za 2018, ndi cholinga chothetsa APP mu Q4. Panalinso lingaliro, ngakhale mphekesera zambiri, kuti banki yayikulu ku Eurozone ingaganizire kukweza chiwongola dzanja, kuchokera pansi pa 0.00%. Komabe, pali zinthu ziwiri zomwe zingasokoneze zolinga ziwirizi.
Choyamba, ngakhale pulogalamu ya APP, CPI (inflation) yakhalabe yotsika, ndi ECB ikufuna anthu opitilira 2%, kuchuluka kwa YoY kwazungulira 1.5% kwa miyezi ingapo, pomwe ECB ikuyembekeza / akukonzekera kuti chiwembucho chikweza mitengo. Chiwongola dzanja chachikulu sichingakweze kukwera kwamitengo, ndipo pomwe QE yowonjezeka ikhoza kukweza kukwera kwamitengo, a ECB sazengereza kutero.
Kachiwiri, a ECB akuwoneka kuti akuda nkhawa kuti mtengo wa yuro ndiwokwera kwambiri poyerekeza ndi anzawo ambiri, makamaka yen, dollar yaku US komanso mapaundi aku UK. Kutsiriza QE ndikukweza chiwongola dzanja kungakulitse mtengo wa yuro. ECB imakhudzidwa ndi mfundo zamabanki ena apakati, zandalama zapakhomo zomwe zalembedwa, sizili m'manja mwawokha. Chifukwa chake pali zida zina zokha zomwe angagwiritse ntchito poyerekeza mtengo wa ndalama za bloc imodzi.
CPI ikamasula ikakumana, kumenya, kapena kuphonya zomwe zanenedweratu, ndiye kuti chiyembekezo ndi chakuti yuro idzayankha kutulutsidwa chifukwa choti kutulutsa kwamitengo kumawerengedwa kuti ndikutulutsa kovuta, komwe kumakhudza mtengo wamtengo mpaka kumasulidwa. Poganizira izi amalonda azachuma (omwe amakhazikika pamawiri awiriawiri), ayenera kuwunika malo awo mosamala.
METRICS YOFUNIKA KWAMBIRI YOPHUNZITSIRA CHOCHITIKA KALENDA.
• GDP YoY 2.7%.
Chiwongola dzanja cha 0.00%.
• Mtengo wama inflation wa 1.3%.
• Mtengo wama inflation mwezi -0.9%.
• Mulingo wopanda ntchito 8.7%.
• Ngongole v GDP 88.9%.
• Kukula kwa malipiro 1.6%.
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