Kulimbana ndi Dominance ya Dollar, Kodi Zigwira Ntchito?
Atafika ku ofesi yake mkati mwa Sydney, Nick Tweedale akulandilidwa ndi ndalama zambirimbiri zamadola.
"Iyi ndiye njira yosavuta kwambiri ya forex," akutero wamalonda ndi CEO wa Asia Pacific brokerage FP Markets. "Pokhapokha ngati pakhala kusintha kwakukulu kwachikhazikitso ndi zolankhula kuchokera ku Fed, kugulitsa dola ndi kupusa."
Kuchira kwa dolayo kudzatsagana ndi kugwa kwakukulu pafupifupi ndalama zonse zazikulu monga malingaliro ankhanza a Fed komanso kugwa kwachuma komwe kukubwera padziko lonse lapansi kukakamiza osunga ndalama kugula zinthu zodzitchinjiriza. Yuro yatsika pang'onopang'ono, akuluakulu aku South Korea akulowererapo kale kuti aletse kupambana kwa zaka 13, ndipo yen yathetsa chiyembekezo cha ng'ombe pobwerera pamlingo wofunikira 140.
Msonkhano wa dollar sukuwoneka kuti utha, ndipo ngati Wapampando wa Fed Jerome Powell apereka ndemanga zaukali pamsonkhano wosiyirana wa Jackson Hole sabata ino, ndalamayo ipeza mphamvu zatsopano.
"Kumwetulira kwa dola sikunachoke," analemba Wing Ting, katswiri wa zachuma padziko lonse ku Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., ponena za chiphunzitso chakuti ndalama za US zafowoka panthawi ya kugwa kwachuma ku US komanso kutsika kwachuma. Chiwopsezo chikachepa, dola idzalimba, poganizira zamphamvu zaku US zachuma komanso ziyembekezo za chiwongola dzanja cha Fed.
Mkhalidwe wopusa
Dola ili ndi madalaivala ambiri omwe ali nawo mbali zonse za kumwetulira. Chimodzi mwa izo ndizovuta m'madera ena, kuchokera ku Ulaya ndi kutsika kwa euro kupita ku Japan ndi kugwa kwa yen.
Malinga ndi zidziwitso zaposachedwa kwambiri za Commodity Futures Trading Commission, hedge funds zawonjezera kale kubetcha kwawo pa mapaundi. Malinga ndi Commodity Futures Trading Commission, afika pachimake kuyambira Marichi 2020. Oyang'anira ndalama adawonjezeranso maudindo amfupi a yen.
Malinga ndi data ya Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Banki ikuyembekeza kuti ndalama imodzi igwere ku $ 0.95 kumapeto kwa chaka. RBC Capital Markets ikukhulupirira kuti mapaundi agwa 5% mpaka $ 1.11. Commonwealth Bank of Australia ikubetcha pa dola yaku Australia, kutsika mpaka masenti 65.
Posachedwapa, mtengo wamtengo wapatali udzawonetsa momwe Powell alili patsogolo pa ntchito ya Jackson Hole, akatswiri a CBA adanena. "Tikuyembekeza kuti EUR/USD idzagulitsa m'munsimu pafupifupi sabata iliyonse."
Gwero lavutoli
Dola yomwe ikukwera ikuwononga makamaka m'misika yomwe ikubwera, pomwe mabanki apakati amawotcha ndalama zokwana $2 biliyoni kumapeto kwa sabata iliyonse kuti athandizire ndalama zawo.
India, Thailand, ndi South Korea awona nkhokwe zawo zikutsika kwambiri. Iwo ataya ndalama zokwana madola 115 biliyoni chaka chino chokha. Yuan yaku China, yomwe ambiri amawona ngati chizindikiro cha misika yomwe ikubwera komanso kusinthanitsa kwakunja, idatsika mpaka 7 yuan ku dollar pomwe zoletsa za Covid zidakhudza chuma.
Mphepete mwa zokolola za US ikutembenuka - chizindikiro chodziwikiratu cha kuchepa kwachuma - m'mikhalidweyi yomwe ikutukuka ndalama zapadziko lonse, kuphatikizapo Hungary forint, Brazilian real, ndi peso ya Mexico, ndizo zomwe zili pachiopsezo kwambiri. "Kuphatikizika kwa chiwongola dzanja chambiri komanso dola yamphamvu yaku US kuyika chiwopsezo chachikulu pakufuna kudya," adatero Alvin Tan, katswiri pa RBC Capital Markets ku Singapore. Dola ipitilirabe kulimba kumapeto kwa chaka komanso mwina koyambirira kwa chaka chamawa.
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