Zokambirana za Brexit zimapangitsa kuti sterling ndi yuro zikwapulike, pomwe amalonda aku USA amadzisinthira okha ndikukwera kosapeweka ndi QT
Brexit adabwereranso ku radar yapadziko lonse lapansi Lachinayi, pomwe otsogolera awiriwa adakumananso, kuti ayese kupanga mapu amsewu kuti atuluke komaliza ku UK. Kodi EU27 yotsalayo ipitirirebe kuvutitsidwa ndi kusokonezeka kwa UK komanso kuwononga nthawi kwanthawi yayitali bwanji, sizikuwonekerabe. Komabe, Britain iyenera kutuluka pofika pa Marichi 2019, chifukwa chake chofunikira chili ku UK kuti apeze mgwirizano, popeza momwe EU ilili bwino; "choka, simudzaphonya, chuma cha dziko lanu chidzawonongeka, Eurozone idzakhalabe yolimba". Yuro ndi sterling zinagwedezeka nthawi zonse zamalonda, monga zokambirana zinkachitika masana. Sterling poyamba adatsika kwambiri, koma adachira monga (kachiwiri) Bambo Barnier, wotsogolera wamkulu wa EU, adagwira nthambi ya azitona ndikuwonetsa: kuleza mtima, ulemu ndi zokambirana kwa David Davis wosakonzekera komanso wosakonzekera, wochokera ku boma la Tory la UK.
Pomwe kuwonetsetsa kwa Davis kupitilirabe, Theresa May adalankhula ku London, kuteteza msika waulere, mwina kutsutsana ndi mtsogoleri wa Labor Party yemwe adalengeza kuti neo liberalism ndi malingaliro olephera pomaliza mawu ake kumapeto kwa msonkhano wa chipani chake Lachitatu. A Mark Carney nawonso adachita chidwi pambuyo pa kuwonekera kwa Meyi, pamwambo wokumbukira zaka makumi awiri za ufulu wa BoE, kwinaku akuwongolera mipata mumalingaliro ake, ponena kuti dziko la UK likhale lamphamvu mokwanira kuti lipirire kukwera kwamitengo m'miyezi ikubwerayi. Nkhani zamakalendala ku Europe zidangoyang'ana pa CPI yaku Germany ikubwera molosera pa 1.8%, pomwe GfK Consumer confidence index ku Germany idafika pa 10.8, kutsika kuchokera pa 11 mwezi watha.
Chiyembekezo chikadali chachikulu pa Wall Street pomwe osunga ndalama ndi mabanki akukhulupirira kuti a Trump adutsa njira ina yosinthira misonkho kukhala lamulo. Nkhani yochokera ku White House ikuwoneka kuti ikukhudzana ndi nthawi yopuma kukhala yabwino ku Middle America, kusiyana ndi Wall Street ndi anthu omwe adawonapo chuma chawo kuyambira pomwe USA idayamba kuchira kuyambira pafupifupi. 2011 pa. Pankhani ya nkhani za kalendala yachuma, chiwerengero chaposachedwa cha GDP, chomwe chikubwera patsogolo pa 3.1%, chikuwonjezera chiyembekezo chonse, popeza osunga ndalama tsopano akukhulupirira kuti Fed ili ndi kuwala kobiriwira kuti ikweze mitengo ndikuyamba kumasula ndalama zokwana madola 4.5 thililiyoni. pepala. Sabata iliyonse, zonena zopanda ntchito zikuchulukirachulukira ku USA, kusowa zoneneratu, kubwera pa 272k. Kulimbikitsa deta yolimba ku USA kunapitilira ndi malonda apamwamba a Ogasiti, kutsika mpaka $62.9 biliyoni.
US DOLLAR
Ndi GDP ikukwera, ndipo zambiri mwazovuta zachuma deta zikuwoneka kuti zikugwirizana ndi cholinga cha Fed; kuti akweze mitengo ndikuyamba pulogalamu yokhwimitsa kachulukidwe, dola idatsika pang'ono poyerekeza ndi anzawo akuluakulu. Ndalama ya dollar yaku US idatsika ndi circa 0.2% Lachinayi, dollar/basket of currencies index, ngakhale idachira pang'ono m'masabata aposachedwa, idataya kale pafupifupi 8% mu 2017. USD / JPY idagwera ku S1 ndipo pafupifupi 0.3% mpaka 112.44, GPB/USD inakwera kupyola pa R1 ndipo pafupifupi 0.4% kufika pa 1.3429, EUR/USD inakweranso kupyola pa R1 ndi pafupifupi. 0.3% mpaka 1.1780. USD/CHF idatsika pafupifupi. 0.2% patsiku mpaka 0.9703. Kutayika kofananako kwa USD kudawonedwa motsutsana ndi madola onse aku Australasia.
EURO
Yuro idayamba gawo lazamalonda ku Europe bwino, komabe, ndalama za bloc imodzi zidakumana ndi mwayi wosakanikirana motsutsana ndi anzawo Lachinayi; kukwera motsutsana ndi USD ndi dollar ya Aussie, EUR/GBP idasiya zopindulitsa zake kuti ithe tsiku loyandikira lathyathyathya pa pivot yatsiku ndi tsiku, chitsanzo chobwerezedwa ndi EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY ndi EUR/NZD. Zosankha zamgwirizano zomwe zikubwera ku Germany ndi Brexit zidakhala zoyendetsa kwambiri pamtengo wandalama, motsutsana ndi anzawo patsikulo.
KUCHITA
Malingaliro adakwera ndikutuluka ndikutuluka mwabwino Lachinayi, mogwirizana ndi zolankhula za osewera osiyanasiyana aku Europe. Sterling idagwa poyambilira pomwe misika idakonzekera kufotokozedwa kwa Brexit yaku UK, ndi chiyembekezo chosamala chomwe chikuwonetsedwa ndi mbali zonse ziwiri, mapaundi aku Britain adakwera kumapeto kwa gawo la Europe. Komabe, ndalamazo zinatha tsiku loyandikira kwambiri poyerekeza ndi anzawo ambiri, mwina ndalamazo zatha komanso zasokonezeka ndi nkhani ya Brexit, monga momwe atolankhani ambiri akhalira. GBP yakwera m'miyezi yaposachedwa motsutsana ndi USD chifukwa cha dola yofooka, m'malo mwa mphamvu zilizonse zodziwika bwino. Kukwera kwaposachedwa motsutsana ndi EUR, kuchokera ku EUR/GBP kuphwanya 93, kutsika mpaka pafupifupi. 87, popanda kupita patsogolo kwakukulu kwa Brexit, ndi chodabwitsa. Ngakhale akatswiri ambiri asintha malingaliro awo okhudzana ndi mtengo wa paundi, akadaulo odziwa zambiri akadali ndi maulosi omwe adaneneratu kumayambiriro kwa chaka, kuti euro v pound ifika pamlingo, UK isanatuluke mu EU mu Marichi 2019.
ZINTHU ZOYENERA KUKHALA NDI ZONSE ZONSE ZA PA 28 SEPTEMBER
• DJIA yatseka 0.18%.
• SPX inatseka 0.12%.
• NASDAQ yatsekedwa lathyathyathya.
• STOXX 50 yatseka 0.22%.
• DAX inatseka 0.37%.
• CAC inatseka 0.22%.
• FTSE 100 inatseka 0.13%.
• Golide anagulitsidwa pafupifupi 0.3% pa $1287.
• Mafuta a WTI adatsika ndi 1% mpaka $51.75.
ZOCHITA ZOFUNIKA KWA CALENDAR YACHUMA PA 29 SEPTEMBER
• Zogulitsa zamalonda zaku Germany zikuyembekezeka kukwera mpaka 3.2% YoY, kuchokera ku 2.7%.
• Ulova wa ku Germany ukuyembekezeka kukhalabe wosasintha, pa 5.8%.
• Mitengo yamitengo ya nyumba ku UK ikuyembekezeka kutsika kufika pa 1.9% YoY, kuchoka pa 2.1%.
• GDP yaku UK ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe pa 1.7% pachaka.
• Eurozone CPI ikuyembekezeka kukwera kufika pa 1.6% YoY, kuchoka pa 1.5%.
• GDP yapachaka yaku Canada ikuyembekezeka kutsika kufika pa 3.9%, kuchoka pa 4.3%.
• Kumwa kwakukulu kwa US kumanenedweratu kuti sikudzasintha, pa 1.4%.
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