Замав / анализа на трендови за недела што започнува во недела на 20 април
Нашата анализа за тргување со тренд / замав се состои од два дела; прво ги анализираме основните одлуки за политиките и новостите за следната недела. Второ, ние користиме техничка анализа во обид да утврдиме какви било потенцијални можности за тргување. Трговците што ги читаат нашите клучни настани во календарот за оваа недела треба да ги забележат предвидувањата, бидејќи секое отстапување, од предвиденото од анкетираните економисти, може да резултира во големи движења на валутни парови, во зависност од последователните поместувања на расположението предизвикано ако податоците се појават погоре, или под очекувањата.Вторник sees wholesale sales in Canada published, with the anticipation that the figure comes in at a circa 0.7% rise month on month. HPI for the USA is predicted to come in at 0.6% up for the month. Consumer confidence in Europe is anticipated to come in at -9, with existing home sales in the USA expected to come in at an annual rate of 4.57 million. The Richmond manufacturing index is anticipated to have recovered from -9 to a zero reading.
Среда sees CPI from Australia published, predicted to come in at 0.8%, the HSBC manufacturing index for China is expected in at 48.4, flash manufacturing PMI for Germany is predicted to come in at 53.9, with services PMI scheduled to come in at 53.5. France’s flash Manufacturing index is expected in at 51.9 with services in at 51.5. Europe’s flash manufacturing PMI is predicted to come in at 53 with services at 52.7. The UK’s BoE MPC will reveal its voting to keep the base interest rate and the quantitative easing programme static with the vote expected to have been unanimous. Public net sector borrowing for the month is expected to have risen to £8.7 bn for the last month.
Од Канада, продажбата на мало се очекува да порасне за 0.5%, а од САД предвидено е читањето за производство на блиц PMI да достигне 56.2. Продажбата на нови станови во САД се очекува да достигне цена од 455 илјади КВ. Од Нов Зеланд ќе ја добиеме одлуката за основната стапка која се очекува да достигне 3.00%, порасна од 2.75%. RBNZ ќе објави изјава во врска со нивната одлука за каматната стапка.
Четврток sees the business climate reading from the IFO for Germany expected to come in at 110.5. The ECB president Mario Draghi will deliver a speech, whilst Spain will launch a ten year bond debt auction. In the UK the CBI will publish its realised sales expectations, predicted to come in at 18. From the USA we’ll receive core durable goods orders expected to come in at 0.6% up. Unemployment claims are expected in at 309K for the past week. Durable goods orders are anticipated to come in at 2.1% up.
Петок sees Tokyo’s core CPI published with the anticipation that the reading will come in at 2.8%. All industries activity from Japan is expected to come in at -0.5%. From the UK we receive the latest data on retail sales, expected to come in at -0.4% for the month. BBA mortgage approvals in the UK are predicted to come in at 48.9K. Flash services PMI for the USA is expected to come in at 56.2 whilst the university of Michigan Consumer sentiment report is expected to deliver a reading of 83.2.
Техничка анализа со детали за потенцијалните занаети на неколку големи валутни парови, индекси и стоки
Нашата техничка анализа за замав / тренд се состои од користење на следниве индикатори кои сите се оставени на нивната стандардна поставка, со исклучок на стохастичките линии кои се прилагодени на 10, 10, 5 во обид да се „бираат“ лажните читања. Целата наша анализа се спроведува само на дневна временска рамка. Ние користиме: PSAR, Bollinger band, DMI, MACD, ADX, RSI и стохастиката. Ние исто така ги користиме клучните просечни движења од: 21, 50, 100, 200. Бараме клучни активности за акција на цените и ги набудуваме клучните рачки / бројните тркала и нивото на психата. За дневните решетки се претпочита методот Хајкин Аши.
EUR / USD broke to the upside on April 8th, currently PSAR is positive and below price, the MACD and DMI are both positive, but failing to make higher high when using the histogram visuals for both indicators. Price is above all the major SMAs however the 21, 50 and 100 SMA are clustered indicating that price could break to the downside as momentum to the upside has potentially failed. The middle Bollinger band has been breached to the downside whilst several of the daily Heikin Ashi candles of last week failed to indicate direction to the upside or downside. The RSI is at 50 whilst the ADX is at 13. The stochastic lines have crossed to the upside, but are short of the overbought territory. Traders currently long would be advised to stay so until perhaps the PSAR has indicated a reversal in sentiment by turning negative. Thereafter traders would be advised to wait for extra indicator confirmation before committing to the downside. 13800 could prove to be the critical level for this security over coming days.
AUD / USD broke to the upside early in March, currently PSAR is below price and positive, the DMI is positive and making lower highs. The MACD is negative. The stochastic lines have crossed to the downside and have exited the overbought area. The RSI is at 59 and the ADX is at 37. Price is above all the main SMAs and threatening to breach the 21 SMA whilst the middle Bollinger band has been breached to the downside. The Heikin Ashi candles late in the week were inconclusive with a bias to the downside. Traders who are currently long, who have been so since this security broke to the upside in early March, will have locked in their profits by way of trailing stops. Thereafter, traders looking for an indication of a reversal in sentiment on the Aussie, could look towards the PSAR to reverse as a reason to stop and then reverse their trade direction. Given the length of the current trend traders might also be advised to wait for the DMI to also become negative before taking short opportunities.
USD / JPY broke to the downside on April 7th, however price has lost the majority the gains witnessed as the security sold off sharply for several days after the break to the downside. Currently the PSAR is above price, the MACD and DMI are positive, but making lower highs. Price is threatening to break through the 21 and 50 day SMAs. The stochastic lines are yet to cross and are short of the oversold area. The RSI is at 49 whilst the ADX is at 17. Looking at the Heikin Ashi candles towards the end of last week the Aussie is threatening to break to the upside and reverse sentiment to bullish. Traders might be advised to wait for the DMI and MACD to become positive and the PSAR to appear below price before fully committing once again to long trades.
DJIA broke to the upside on April 15th. Currently price is above all the critical SMAs. PSAR is below price and positive whilst the last Heikin Ashi candles of last week were closed, full bodied with upward shadows. The DMI and the MACD are both positive and making higher highs using the histogram visual. The stochastic lines are mid territory and indicating that (on the adjusted setting) they are about to cross. The RSI is at 54 and the ADX is at 11. Traders currently long would be advised to stay so until as a minimum the PSAR turns negative and several of the other indicators in our cluster guide take on bearish tendencies.
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