MAIKI WEEKLY SNAPSHOT 11/01 - 15/01 | MAU MAKAI MAKAHI LOA O GLOBAL I KE OLA I KA MANAWA MUA O 2021, MA KE KANAWAI INVESTORS BANK MA KE KAHEA HAWAII VACCINE
ʻO nā mākeke kaulike ʻo US, ʻo SPX 500, DJIA 30 a me NASDAQ 100 nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe i paʻi ʻia i ke kālepa ʻana o ka pule mua o 2021. ʻO nā kumu like ʻole: ke hoʻokokoke ʻana ʻo Biden-Harris i ka wā, ua holo ka Senate e hāʻawi ana i ka maopopo i ke aupuni. a me ke kaʻina hana kānāwai, a me ka holomua ma ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka lāʻau, ʻoiai ke hōʻike nei ka lāʻau ākea ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa i nā pilikia loiloi.
ʻO ka hihiʻo o ke kūpaʻa a ke aupuni Kemokalaka e hiki mai ana i hōʻoluʻolu i ka manaʻo o nā mea hoʻopukapuka. Ua hoʻomohala ka hilinaʻi e hana hou i ka stimulus form e hana ʻia ke aupuni ʻo Fed a me US, nāna i hoʻokumu i ka ʻano makepono o ka mākeke.
Haki ka NASDAQ 100 i ka pae 13,000
Ma ka Pōʻahā, Ianuali 7, ua haki ka NASDAQ ma waena o ka helu kūleʻa 13,000 no ka manawa mua ma ka mōʻaukala o ka papa kuhikuhi. Ua hoʻolaha ʻia ka haki o ka pae ma ka pāpāho e like me ka mea hoʻokumu o Tesla, ʻo Elon Musk, i koho ʻia i kanaka waiwai loa o ka honua, he $ 180b keu.
ʻO nā mea hoʻopukapuka a me nā mea kālepa o Bitcoin a me nā moni crypto ʻē aʻe i loaʻa nā kumu e hauʻoli ai i loko o ka pule i ka wā i haki ka BTC i ka pae $ 40,000. Ua pāpālua ia i ke kumukūʻai i hoʻokahi mahina. ʻO nā kumu i hāʻawi ʻia e pili ana i ke kālā kikoʻī he pale a kue i ka inflation, kahi waiwai waiwai ke hāʻawi nā waihona moʻokāki iā ʻoe kokoke i ka zero zero, a me ka mining ʻana o BTC e hoʻokokoke ana i kāna hopena makemakika. A i ʻole he hype paha ia e pili ana i ka exuberance irrational.
Kūpaʻa ke kālā US ma Ianuali 2021
Ua loaʻa i kahi kālā US kahi hoʻohaʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa i kēia manawa ma 2021, ua komo ka helu helu DXY ma ka laina 90.00 a piʻi aʻe i 0.12% i kēia makahiki. ʻO Versus nā kālā antipodean ʻelua, NZD a me AUD, ua iho ka US kālā ma kahi o -0.75%. Kokoke ʻo USD i ka pae no kēlā me kēia makahiki me kāna mau hoa nui ʻē aʻe, koe wale no ka sterling, iho ʻo GBP / USD i lalo -0.68% ke hoʻomaka nei ke kuʻi o ka ʻoiaʻiʻo Brexit.
ʻO ke kālepa ʻana ma EUR, GBP a me USD he paʻakikī i loko o ka pule mua o 2021. He sporadic ka hana kumukūʻai o kēlā me kēia lā, a ua paʻakikī hoʻi ka ʻike ʻana i nā manawa waena i nā hui kālā nui e ʻike.
Eia nō naʻe, ua haki ʻo USD / JPY i kēia manawa i ka 50 DMA i ka manawa o kēlā me kēia lā, e ʻōlelo ana e ulu ana paha kahi piʻo kūleʻa, kahi manaʻo i kākoʻo ʻia e nā pahu Heikin-Ashi bullish i kēia mau lā i hala iho nei. ʻO ke kaua o Brexit, i ʻike ʻia e ka waiwai o EUR / GBP, ʻoi loa ke kiʻi ʻia e nā 100 a me 50 DMA e kokoke ana i ka hui ʻana.
ʻAʻole hiki i ka hōʻino ʻana i nā ʻikepili hana USA ke hōʻemi i ka manaʻo o nā mea hoʻopukapuka
ʻO ka ʻikepili waiwai waiwai nui no USA i kēia pule he mau helu hana pilikino, nā kuleana hana ʻole a me ka helu NFP. Ua hele mai ka helu o nā hana pilikino ADP ma -123K, ʻoiai ua pili kokoke nā kuleana hana ʻole i kēlā me kēia pule i ka pae 800K. Ke kākau nei i kēia loli, ua wānana ʻo Reuters i ka helu NFP e komo i 70K ma ka Pōʻalima 8, ka helu hana hana ʻoi loa ʻoi loa mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka nalu 1 o ka maʻi maʻi COVID-19.
ʻO kēia mau helu e hopohopo nā mea hoʻopukapuka e pili ana i ke olakino olakino holoʻokoʻa o US i kēlā me kēia au. Akā me ka haʻalele ʻana o nā lāʻau āpau, ke nānā nei nā mea hoʻopukapuka a me nā mea kālepa i ka ʻikepili hana hoʻohoka, a i nā aupuni a me nā panakō kikowaena e kūkulu hou ana i ka hoʻokele waiwai o ka hemisphere komohana ma 2021 a me 2022.
Ua kaupalena ka hopena o nā lockdowns Pandomy i nā mākeke kaulike kālā
Paʻa nā Lockdowns i ke kī i kahi ola hoʻomau. Eia nō naʻe, hopohopo ʻole nā mea hoʻopukapuka i ka waihona no ka mea inā hoʻomau ka indulge o nā panakō a me nā aupuni i nā stimulus a i ʻole ke kūʻai ʻana i nā waiwai ma o ka hoʻoliʻiliʻi nui ʻana, e ala ana nā mākeke.
ʻO kahi laʻana, ua hoʻolaha ke aupuni UK he loka laka loa i ka pule mua o Ianuali, a hāʻule ke wāwae wāwae kūʻai ma kahi kokoke i 50% i nā pule kūʻai kumu mua o Kēkēmapa i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 2019. ʻO ka wanana ka pae maoli o ka hana ʻole ma UK. a e kū ka recession lua-pā e Q2. I kēia manawa, e hoʻomaka mālie ʻo Brexit i ka haunaele mau ma nā awa.
Akā ʻo ka papa kuhikuhi alakaʻi nui ka FTSE 100 i kēia manawa 6.00% i luna i Ianuali ma hope o ka panakō ʻana o ka Bank of England a me ke UK Chancellor i ke kākoʻo hou inā pono. I ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, nui nā ʻoihana FTSE 100 i ʻōlelo ʻaʻole i hoʻokumu ʻia ma UK, akā paʻa ka manaʻo maikaʻi i nā hoʻopukapuka UK ma muli o nā pilikia.
Hiki i ka ʻaila, keleawe a me nā metala makamae ke kuhikuhi i kahi o ka manaʻo global
Kuhi pinepine ʻia ʻo “kauka keleawe” no ka mea kākau ia i ke olakino o ka hoʻokele waiwai honua, ua piʻi ke keleawe i kahi kiʻekiʻe he ʻewalu mau makahiki i kēia pule. Ua ala nui ʻo WTI, e haki ana i ka $ 50 no ka uku barela no ka manawa mua mai Malaki 2020. Piʻi pū kekahi ke kālā a me ke gula a ʻoiai nā metala waiwai he waiwai wānana a hoʻohana nui ʻia lākou i ka hana ʻoihana.
Hoʻonohonoho ʻia nā huahana a pau i kapa ʻia ma luna e like me nā thermometers e lawe ana i ka mahana o ka hoʻokele waiwai o ka honua. ʻO ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelike ke kikowaena o ka pilikia COVID-19 a me ʻEulopa a me ʻO ʻAmelike GDP i hiolo i ka makahiki 2020. Ma ka ʻokoʻa, ua hana mua ʻo Kina a me nā ʻāina ʻĀsia i ka makahiki 2020, me ka ulu ʻana o ka GDP o Kina ma 4.90% i ka makahiki 2020. ʻenekini o ka ulu honua ʻana, no laila ua piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai o ka wā mua.
ʻO ka pule e hiki mai ana ma ka kalena waiwai
Ma ka Pōʻalua hoʻopuka ʻia nā hana JOLTS hou loa ma USA. ʻO ka mea i manaʻo ʻia no ka hāʻule ʻana i 6.3m. Kuhi ʻia nā kumukūʻai aila ʻaila e hōʻike i ka hāʻule hou ʻana i hiki ke hoʻopili i ke kumukūʻai o ka barela aila.
ʻIke ka Pōʻakolu i ka paʻi ʻia o nā helu hana hana no ka Eurozone. ʻO ka wānana no kahi hina nui i Nowemapa e -1.4%. Ma hope o ka lā e like me ka mākaukau o ke kau ʻo Nu Ioka e wehe, hoʻopuka ʻia nā helu kumukūʻai US. ʻAʻole e loli ka mea i manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui ʻia ma 1.2%. Hiki ke nānā ʻia ka waiwai o yen i ka hālāwai Asia, ʻoiai ʻo Japan e hoʻopuka nei i kāna ʻikepili kauoha mīkini hou. E hāʻule ka wanana i 4.2% no Nowemapa ua wānana kekahi mau loiloi i kahi helu maikaʻi ʻole no kēia metric Kepani alakaʻi.
Ma ka Pōʻahā i hōʻike ʻia ai kahi ʻauʻau o kā Kina lawe aku a lawe mai i ka ʻike. ʻO ka mea i manaʻo ʻia no ka ulu olakino, makahiki i ka makahiki a me ka mahina i ka mahina, e ʻike ʻia i ke kaulike o nā helu kalepa. ʻO ka hana maʻamau o kēlā me kēia pule koi i ka ʻikepili i paʻi ʻia ma ka US, ka pule mua ke helu ʻia ka hapa nui o nā hoʻolāʻau kau, a he kumu ia e ulu ai. Hoʻolaha ʻia nā kumukūʻai kūʻai a lawe mai no ka US, e hōʻike ana i kahi e piʻi ai ka hoʻonui kālā ma ka wā pōkole.
ʻIke ka Pōʻalima i ka paʻi ʻia o ka helu hou GDP UK. ʻO ka wānana he 1.5% ulu no nā mahina ʻekolu a hiki i Nowemapa. Eia nō naʻe, manaʻo ka poʻe loiloi i ka Q hope loa o 2020 a me Q1 2021 e maikaʻi ʻole ma muli o nā lockdowns. ʻO ke kaulike UK o nā helu kālepa e hōʻino pū kekahi. Hiki i ka helu GDP ke hoʻopili i ka waiwai o ka sterling ma muli o ka nalo ʻana o nā wanana a kuʻi paha i nā kuhi. Aia kekahi peʻa o ke kaulike a me nā ʻike nui i paʻi ʻia ma ka US ma nā kau o ke awakea. ʻO nā kūʻai kūʻai liʻiliʻi, ka papa kuhikuhi o New York Empire, nā helu hana ʻoihana, nā papa inoa ʻoihana, a me nā heluhelu ʻana o ka manaʻo Michigan e paʻi ʻia i ka wā o ka wā nui. Hiki i kēlā ʻano ʻikepili ke hoʻopili i nā helu kaulike US a me ko USD waiwai me kāna mau hoa nui.
« ʻO nā mākeke kaulike ʻo US e paʻi i nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe, e lawe nei i ka US kālā me lākou Kū mua nā mākeke kaulike a me USD i ka pule e hiki mai ana »
