ʻO nā rula nui a Nassim Taleb o ka ʻōlelo aʻo kālepa lima lima

ʻAp 3 • Ma waena o nā laina • 14270 Nānā • 1 Comment ma nā rula nui a Nassim Taleb o ka ʻōlelo aʻo kālepa lima lima

Mai kēlā manawa kēia manawa he mea pono ke nānā i loko o ka manaʻo o kekahi o nā: 'kaʻao' kālepa, essayists a me nā mea noʻonoʻo i kā mākou honua kālepa, i mea e ʻike ai i ko lākou mau manaʻo i nā ʻano he nui o ke kālepa a mākou e ʻike ai i kēlā me kēia lā. kumu. ʻO ka mea pili i ko lākou hiki ke ʻoki wale i nā ʻāpana o nā kope i kākau ʻia ma kā mākou ʻoihana a "hiki i ke kiko". Me he mea lā ua hoʻemi ʻia ko lākou mau makahiki o ka ʻike a ʻaʻole i ʻoi aku ma mua o hoʻokahi kakini kikoʻī, kūpono a pōkole e hiki ke hoʻoponopono koke i kekahi o kā mākou mau manaʻo a me nā maʻamau. Mālama ʻo Mark Douglas e hana i kēia ma kāna puke maikaʻi loa "Trading in the Zone" kahi i lawe ai kona mau manaʻo a me kona mau manaʻoʻiʻo i kahi kūlana kaʻao i kā mākou ʻoihana.

Akā ma kēia ʻatikala, ʻo ia kekahi kanaka nunui o ka honua kālepa a mākou e makemake ai e noʻonoʻo - Nassim Taleb * nāna i hoʻopuka i ʻeiwa "rules of thumb" i ka mea i kapa ʻia ʻo kāna "Trader Risk Management Lore". E ʻike ka poʻe heluhelu maʻamau o kēia mau kolamu (ma ka pōʻino a i ʻole ka hoʻolālā ʻana) ua ʻōlelo mākou i kāna mau ʻōlelo i loko o nā ʻatikala he nui a mākou i haku ai. Eia kekahi, e ʻike ka poʻe heluhelu i ka manaʻo o Taleb, e pili ana i ka nānā ʻana, e pili ana i ka pōʻino holoʻokoʻa a me ka hoʻokele kālā, he kumuhana mau i ka nui o kā mākou ʻatikala. Ma ka ʻaoʻao o kēia ʻatikala, ua ʻoki mākou i kekahi mau paukū mai Wikipedia e pili ana iā Taleb a no nā mea kālepa i loko o ko mākou kaiāulu e ʻimi ana i nā mea heluhelu e hoʻolōʻihi i ka manawa ma waena o nā hoʻonohonoho kālepa a hoʻomohala i kahi ʻano holoʻokoʻa a holoʻokoʻa i kā mākou ʻoihana. Manaʻo mākou e heluhelu i nā puke na Taleb me Black Swan a me Fooled By Randomness. ʻO ka puke mua ʻole o ka ʻenehana ʻo Taleb, Fooled by Randomness, e pili ana i ka underestimation o ke kuleana o ka randomness i ke ola, a puni ka manawa like me ka hoʻouka ʻana o Kepakemapa 11, ua koho ʻia e Fortune e like me kekahi o nā puke akamai 75 i ʻike ʻia. ʻO kāna puke lua ʻole ʻenehana, The Black Swan, e pili ana i nā hanana unpredictable, i paʻi ʻia ma 2007, kūʻai kokoke i 3 miliona mau kope (e like me Pepeluali 2011). Ua hoʻohana ʻia he 36 pule ma ka papa inoa ʻo New York Times Bestseller, 17 ma ke ʻano he paʻa paʻa a he 19 mau pule ma ka pepa pepa a ua unuhi ʻia i loko o 31 mau ʻōlelo. Ua hōʻoia ʻia ka Black Swan i ka wānana ʻana i ka pilikia kālā a me ka hoʻokele waiwai o 2008.

ʻO Lore Management Management Lore: Nā Kauoha Nui a Taleb o Thumb

Rula No. 1- Mai hoʻomaka i nā mākeke a me nā huahana āu i maopopo ʻole ai. He ʻiʻo noho ʻoe. Rula No. 2- ʻAʻole like ka pā nui āu e lawe ai ma hope aku me ka mea āu i lawe hope ai. Mai hoʻolohe i ka manaʻo e pili ana i kahi o nā pilikia (ʻo ia hoʻi, nā pilikia i hōʻike ʻia e VAR). ʻO ka mea e hōʻeha iā ʻoe ʻo ia ka mea āu e manaʻo ai i ka liʻiliʻi loa. Rula No. 3- Manaʻoʻiʻo i ka hapalua o nā mea āu i heluhelu ai, ʻaʻohe o nā mea āu e lohe ai. Mai aʻo i ke kumumanaʻo ma mua o ka hana ʻana i kāu nānā ponoʻī a noʻonoʻo. E heluhelu i kēlā me kēia ʻāpana o ka noiʻi theoretical hiki iā ʻoe-akā e noho kālepa. ʻO kahi haʻawina mālama ʻole o nā ʻano haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa e hao ʻoe i kou ʻike.

Rula No. 4- E makaʻala i ka poʻe kālepa kūʻai kūʻai ʻole i loaʻa ka loaʻa kālā paʻa. ʻO nā mea kālepa me nā poho pinepine e hōʻeha iā ʻoe, akā ʻaʻole paha lākou e puhi iā ʻoe. Loaʻa i ka poʻe kālepa volatility lōʻihi ke kālā i ka hapa nui o nā lā o ka pule. (Inoa aʻo: nā waiwai liʻiliʻi o ka ratio Sharpe). Rula No. 5- E hahai nā mākeke i ke ala e hōʻeha i ka helu kiʻekiʻe loa o nā mea pale. ʻO nā pā maikaʻi loa nā mea āu i kau ai. Rula No. 6- Mai hoʻokuʻu i kahi lā me ka nānā ʻole ʻana i nā hoʻololi o nā kumukūʻai o nā mea hana kālepa i loaʻa. E kūkulu ʻoe i kahi inference instinctive i ʻoi aku ka ikaika ma mua o nā helu helu maʻamau. Rule No. 7- ʻO ke kuhi hewa nui loa: "ʻAʻole hiki kēia hanana i kaʻu mākeke." ʻO ka hapa nui o nā mea i hana mua ʻole ʻia ma kahi mākeke i hana ʻia ma kekahi. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo ʻaʻole i make kekahi ma mua ʻaʻole ia i make ʻole. (Inoa aʻo: ʻO Hume pilikia o ka hoʻokomo ʻana). Rula No. 8- Mai hele i ka muliwai no ka mea, he 4 kapuai ka hohonu. Rula No. 9- Heluhelu i kēlā me kēia puke a nā mea kālepa e aʻo i kahi i nalowale ai ke kālā. ʻAʻole ʻoe e aʻo i kekahi mea pili mai kā lākou loaʻa kālā (hoʻololi nā mākeke). E aʻo mai ʻoe i kā lākou lilo.

* ʻO Nassim Nicholas Taleb

ʻO Nassim Nicholas Taleb he mea kākau moʻolelo Lebanese ʻAmelika, ka mea aʻoaʻo a me ka helu helu, kāna hana e kālele ana i nā pilikia o ka randomness, probability and uncertained. ʻO kāna puke 2007 ʻo The Black Swan i wehewehe ʻia ma kahi loiloi e ka Sunday Times ʻo ia kekahi o nā puke koʻikoʻi he ʻumikūmālua mai ke Kaua Honua II. He mea kākau maikaʻi loa ʻo Taleb a he polopeka ʻo ia ma kekahi mau kulanui, i kēia manawa ʻo Professor Distinguished of Risk Engineering ma New York University Polytechnic School of Engineering. He mea hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻo ia i ke kālā makemakika, he luna mālama kālā pā, he mea kālepa derivatives, a i kēia manawa he kākā'ōlelo ʻepekema ma Universa Investments a me ka International Monetary Fund. Ua ʻāhewa ʻo ia i nā ʻano hana hoʻokele pilikia i hoʻohana ʻia e ka ʻoihana kālā a ua ʻōlelo ʻo ia e pili ana i nā pilikia kālā, ma hope o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā mai ka hopena o ka makahiki 2000. Kākoʻo ʻo ia i ka mea āna i kapa ai he "ʻeleʻele swan robust", ʻo ia hoʻi he hui hiki ke kū i nā hanana paʻakikī e wānana. Manaʻo ʻo ia i ka "anti-fragility" i nā ʻōnaehana, ʻo ia hoʻi, kahi hiki ke pōmaikaʻi a ulu mai kekahi papa o nā hanana hanana, nā hewa, a me ka volatility a me ka "convex tinkering" ma ke ʻano he ʻano ʻike ʻepekema, ʻo ia hoʻi. koho-like hoʻokolohua outperforms, kuhikuhi noiʻi.   

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