TATTALIN SATI NA SATI NA 11/01 - 15/01 | KASUWAN KASASUWAN DUNIYA SUN KOMA DOMIN RAI A SATIN FARKO NA 2021, KAMAR YADDA 'YAN BANGARI SUKA BANKI AKAN SAMUN CIKIN SAMUN WUTA
Manyan kasuwannin hadahadar Amurka, da SPX 500, da DJIA 30 da NASDAQ 100 duk sun buga manyan tarihi yayin kasuwancin satin farko na 2021. Dalilan sun kasance daban-daban: bikin Biden-Harris ya gabato, zaben fitar da gwani na majalisar dattijai yana ba gwamnati tabbaci. da aiwatar da doka, da ci gaba kan ci gaban allurar rigakafi, kodayake maganin alurar rigakafin a duk duniya har yanzu yana wakiltar matsalolin kayan aiki.
Ganin kwanciyar hankali da gwamnatin dimokuradiyya mai zuwa ta kirkira ya sanyaya zuciyar masu saka jari. Amincewa ta haɓaka cewa ƙarin ƙarfin haɓaka Fed da gwamnatin Amurka za a ƙirƙira su, wanda ya haifar da yanayin haɗari-kan kasuwa.
NASDAQ 100 ya keta matakin 13,000
A ranar Alhamis, 7 ga Janairu, NASDAQ ya ɓarke ta hanyar lambar zagaye na 13,000 a karo na farko a tarihin tarihin. An bayyana cin zarafin matakin a kafafen yada labarai yayin da aka kirkirar wanda ya kafa kamfanin Tesla, Elon Musk a matsayin mutumin da ya fi kowa kudi a duniya, wanda ya kai dala biliyan 180.
Masu saka jari da 'yan kasuwa na Bitcoin da sauran tsabar tsabar kudi suna da dalilai na yin farin ciki a cikin makon yayin da BTC ta keta matakin $ 40,000. Yanzu ya ninka cikin farashi a wata ɗaya. Dalilan da aka bayar sun hada da kudin kama-da-wane kasancewar shinge a kan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, saka hannun jari mai amfani yayin da asusun ajiya ya ba ku kusan dawo da sifili, da hakar BTC da ke gabatowa zuwa ƙarshen lissafi. Ko kuma yana iya zama talla bisa dogaro da motsin rai.
Dalar Amurka ta daidaita a watan Janairun 2021
Dalar Amurka ta sami sauki sosai a cikin 2021, farashin dala DXY ya ratsa cikin layin 90.00 kuma ya tashi 0.12% ya zuwa yanzu a cikin shekara. Akan duk kudaden antipodean, NZD da AUD, dalar Amurka tayi ƙasa kusan -0.75%. USD ta kusan matakin daidai da sauran manyan takwarorinta, banda na sterling, GBP / USD ya yi kasa -0.68% saboda gaskiyar Brexit ya fara bugawa.
Ciniki a cikin EUR, GBP da USD sun kasance masu wayo yayin makon farko na 2021. Ayyukan farashi na yau da kullun sun kasance bazuwar, kuma yanayin matsakaiciyar lokaci a cikin manyan nau'ikan kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗen sun tabbatar da wahalar ganowa.
Koyaya, USD / JPY yanzu sun keta 50 DMA a kan lokaci na yau da kullun, suna ba da shawarar cewa saurin canzawa na iya ci gaba, ka'idar da goyan bayan sandunan Heikin-Ashi masu ƙarfi ke tallafawa a kwanakin baya. Yaƙin Brexit, wanda aka gano ta ƙimar EUR / GBP, shine mafi kyawun zane ta hanyar 100 da 50 DMAs suna kusa da haɗuwa.
Rarraba ayyukan ayyukan Amurka ya kasa rage tunanin mai saka jari
Babban sanannen bayanan tattalin arziki na Amurka a wannan makon ya kasance lambobin aiki masu zaman kansu, da'awar rashin aikin yi da lambar NFP. Lambar ayyuka masu zaman kansu na ADP sun shigo--123K, yayin da da'awar rashin aikin mako-mako ta kasance kusa da matakin 800K. Lokacin rubuta wannan sabuntawar, Reuters ta yi hasashen lambar NFP da za ta shigo a 70K ranar Juma'a 8, mafi munin lambar samar da aikin yi tun farkon raƙuman ruwa 1 na cutar COVID-19.
Irin waɗannan alkaluman zasu sa masu saka jari su damu game da lafiyar tattalin arzikin Amurka a kowane zamani. Amma tare da shirin da ake yi na allurar rigakafin, masu saka jari da 'yan kasuwa suna kallon bayan ayyukan ban takaici, kuma ga gwamnatoci da bankunan tsakiya na sake gina tattalin arzikin kasashen yamma yayin 2021 da 2022.
Kulle-kullen annoba yana da iyakantaccen tasiri a kasuwannin hada-hadar kuɗi
Kullewa suna riƙe mabuɗin don ci gaba mai dorewa. Duk da haka, masu saka hannun jari ba su damu ba saboda idan manyan bankunan da gwamnatoci suka ci gaba da ba da sha'awa ko sayayyar kadara ta hanyar sassaucin yawa, kasuwanni za su tashi.
Misali, gwamnatin Burtaniya ta sanar da kulle kulle a cikin makon farko na watan Janairu, kuma kafar sayar da kayayyaki ta fadi da kusan 50% a farkon makonnin cinikayya na Disamba idan aka kwatanta da 2019. Hasashen ya nuna cewa ainihin matakin rashin aikin yi na Burtaniya zai ninka, kuma koma bayan ninki zai koma Q2. A halin yanzu, Brexit zai fara sannu a hankali haifar da hargitsi a tashar jiragen ruwa.
Amma babban jagorar FTSE 100 a halin yanzu ya kasance 6.00% a cikin Janairu bayan Bankin Ingila da Shugaban Ingila sun sanar da ƙarin tallafi lokacin da ya cancanta. A hakikanin gaskiya, yawancin kamfanonin FTSE 100 da aka nakalto ba su da tushe na Burtaniya, amma kyakkyawan fata a cikin saka hannun jari na Burtaniya ya kasance mai ƙarfi duk da matsalolin da ke bayyane.
Mai, tagulla da ƙarafa masu tamani na iya nuna inda ra'ayin duniya yake
Sau da yawa ana kiransa "likitan jan ƙarfe" saboda yana rikodin lafiyar tattalin arzikin duniya, tagulla ya kai shekaru takwas a wannan makon. WTI shima yayi tashin gwauron zabi, wanda ya karya dala 50 kan ganga a karon farko tun Maris 2020. Azurfa da zinare suma sun tashi kuma alhali karafa masu daraja kayan arziki ne wadanda ake amfani dasu sosai kuma ana amfani dasu sosai wajen samar da masana'antu.
Duk kayan da aka ambata a sama ana sanya su a matsayin ma'aunin zafin jiki masu ɗaukar zafin tattalin arzikin duniya. Turai da Amurka sune cibiyar rikicin COVID-19 kuma Turai da GDP na Amurka sun ruguje yayin shekarar 2020. Sabanin haka, China da sauran kasashen Asiya suna kan gaba a shekarar 2020, tare da karuwar GDP na China da kashi 4.90% a shekarar 2020. Ana iya cewa Asiya ita ce injin ci gaban duniya, don haka farashin kayan masarufi ya tashi.
Makon da ke gaba kan kalandar tattalin arziki
Ranar Talata sabon aikin JOLTS a cikin Amurka ana buga shi. Abun jira shine faduwa zuwa 6.3m. An yi hasashen hada-hadar danyen mai don nuna kara faduwa wanda ka iya yin tasiri kan farashin gangar mai.
Laraba tana ganin wallafe-wallafen masana'antar masana'antar yankin Euro. Hasashen na faduwar faduwa a watan Nuwamba da -1.4%. Washegari yayin da ake shirin buɗe taron na New York, ana buga adadin ƙididdigar hauhawar farashin kayayyakin Amurka. Tsammani shine hauhawar farashin kaya ba zai canza ba a 1.2%. Ofimar yen zai iya zama abin dubawa a cikin zaman Asiya, yayin da Japan ke buga bayanan odar kayan masarufinta. Hasashen zai faɗi zuwa 4.2% don Nuwamba wasu masharhanta suna hasashen lamba mara kyau don wannan babban ma'aunin Japan.
A ranar Alhamis an bayyana wani rago na bayanan fitarwa da shigo da kasar Sin. Abun jira shine don ci gaban lafiya, shekara a kan wata da wata kan wata, wanda ke nunawa cikin daidaitattun ƙididdigar kasuwanci. Aikin mako-mako na al'ada na da'awar bayanai ana bugawa a cikin Amurka, makon farko lokacin da aka kidaya mafi yawan lokacin aiki, wanda zai iya haifar da karuwar. Ana sanar da farashin fitarwa da shigo da kaya ga Amurka, yana nuna inda hauhawar farashi zai fara akan ɗan gajeren lokaci.
Jumma'a tana ganin sabon adadi na GDP na Burtaniya. Hasashen ya bunkasa 1.5% na watanni uku har zuwa Nuwamba. Koyaya, manazarta suna tsammanin Q na ƙarshe na 2020 da Q1 2021 zasu zama mara kyau saboda kullewa. Har ila yau daidaita ma'aunin Burtaniya na adadi na kasuwanci ya lalace. Adadin GDP na iya tasiri kan darajar sitiyari dangane da ko hasashen ya ɓace ko ya doke ƙididdigar. Akwai raftin matsakaiciyar bayanai masu tasiri da aka buga a Amurka yayin zaman la'asar. Tallace-tallace, jerin New York Empire, adadi na samar da masana'antu, ƙididdigar kasuwanci, da karancin tunanin Michigan duk ana buga su yayin zaman aiki. Irin wannan kashe-kashen bayanan na iya tasiri alamun adadi na Amurka da ƙimar USD tare da manyan takwarorinta.
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