Janairu 16 • Sharhin kasuwancin • Ra'ayoyin 6098 • 1 Comment akan Burtaniya Ta Dawo Cikin Cigaban Tattalin Arziki Bai Fito Ba
Burtaniya Ta Dawo Cikin Hannun Tattalin Arziki Bai Taba Fitowa Ba. A Haƙiƙa Amurka Ba Ta Bambanta
Ma'anar koma bayan tattalin arziki ya canza a tsawon shekaru kuma ya bambanta daga ƙasa zuwa ƙasa da nahiyar zuwa nahiya. A cikin Burtaniya An bayyana koma bayan tattalin arziki azaman lokuta biyu masu zuwa na ci gaba mara kyau. A cikin Amurka ana ganin Kwamitin Sadarwa na Abokin Ciniki na Babban Ofishin Bincike na Tattalin Arziki (NBER) a matsayin hukuma don saduwa da koma bayan Amurka. NBER ta bayyana koma bayan tattalin arziki azaman:
raguwar ayyukan tattalin arziki ya bazu cikin tattalin arziƙi, wanda ya ɗauki fiye da monthsan watanni, yawanci ana gani a cikin GDP na ainihi, samun kuɗaɗen shiga, aikin yi, samar da masana'antu, da tallace-tallace-tallace-tallace.
Kusan a duk duniya, masana ilimi, masana tattalin arziki, masu tsara manufofi, da kasuwanci suna jinkirta ƙaddarar da NBER ke yi don tabbatar da dacewar farawar tattalin arziki da ƙarshenta. A takaice idan ci gaba 'ya kasance mara kyau' a cikin Amurka to ƙasar tana cikin matsalar tattalin arziki.
A cewar masana tattalin arziki, tun daga 1854, Amurka ta ci karo da zagaye 32 na fadadawa da ragin, tare da matsakaita na watanni 17 na ragin da kuma fadada watanni 38. Koyaya, tun daga 1980 akwai lokuta takwas kawai na ci gaban tattalin arziƙi sama da kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu na kasafin kuɗi ko fiye, kuma lokuta huɗu suna la'akari da koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Amurka koma bayan tattalin arziki tun 1980
Yulin 1981 - Nuwamba 1982: watanni 14
Yulin 1990 - Maris 1991: 8 months
Maris 2001 - Nuwamba 2001: 8 months
Disamba 2007 - Yuni 2009: 18 watanni
A cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki uku da suka gabata, shawarar NBER ta yi daidai da ma'anar da ke tattare da sau biyu a jere na raguwa. Duk da yake koma bayan tattalin arziki na 2001 bai ƙunshi raguwa biyu a jere ba, ya kasance gabanin kwata biyu na sauyawa baya da rauni mai rauni. Tabarbarewar Amurka na 2007 ya ƙare a watan Yuni, 2009 yayin da al'ummar ta shiga cikin farfadowar tattalin arzikin yanzu.
Adadin rashin aikin yi a Amurka ya karu zuwa kashi 8.5 cikin dari a cikin watan Maris na 2009, kuma akwai asarar ayyuka miliyan 5.1 har zuwa Maris din 2009 tun bayan koma bayan tattalin arziki a watan Disambar 2007. Wannan shi ne kusan mutane miliyan biyar da ba su da aikin yi idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata, wanda shi ne mafi girma tsalle na shekara-shekara a cikin yawan mutanen da ba su da aikin yi tun daga 1940s.
Batun koma bayan Burtaniya Tun 1970
Tsakanin matsin tattalin arziki na 1970s 1973-5, shekaru 2 (6 daga 9 Qtr). Ya ɗauki kwata 14 don GDP don murmurewa zuwa matsayi a farkon koma bayan tattalin arziki bayan 'tsoma biyu'.
Farkon koma bayan 1980s 1980- 1982, shekaru 2 (6 - 7 Qtr). Rashin aikin yi ya tashi 124% daga 5.3% na yawan masu aiki a watan Agusta 1979 zuwa 11.9% a 1984. Sun ɗauki 13 bariki don GDP don dawowa zuwa wancan a farkon 1980. Ya ɗauki 18 kwata don GDP ya dawo zuwa wancan a farkon koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Farkon koma bayan 1990s 1990-2 shekaru 1.25 (5 Qtr). Akarancin gibin kasafin kuɗi 8% na GDP. Rashin aikin yi ya tashi 55% daga 6.9% na yawan masu aiki a 1990 zuwa 10.7% a 1993. Sun ɗauki 13 bariki don GDP don dawo da hakan a farkon koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Late koma bayan tattalin arziki 2000, shekaru 1.5, 6 kwata. Fitarwa ya fadi da kashi 0.5% a cikin 2010 Q4. Adadin rashin aikin yi da farko ya tashi zuwa 8.1% (2.57m mutane) a watan Agusta 2011, matakin mafi girma tun 1994, daga baya an zarce shi. Ya zuwa Oktoba 2011, bayan kwata 14, GDP har yanzu ya ragu da kashi 4 cikin ɗari daga farkon lokacin koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Yadda 'Aka Sayi' Maido
Figuresididdigar koma bayan tattalin arziki ta Amurka 2008/2009 na nuna yadda Amurka ta tsaya cik kuma da ɗan 'ci gaban' da aka samu. Duk da yawan talla da bata gari gaskiyar lamarin shine Amurka har yanzu tana cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki. A watan Maris na 2009 rashin aikin yi ya kai kashi 8.5%, a yau ya kai kashi 8.5%. A watan Maris na 2009 miliyan 5.1 sun rasa ayyukansu, ƙididdiga yanzu suna ba da shawarar kusan asarar miliyan 9.0 na rashin aiki daga 2007-2012. Duk da kokarin da ake yi na juya shi in ba haka ba babu irin wannan lamarin a matsayin 'rashin dawowa aiki', Amurka har yanzu tana cikin mawuyacin halin koma bayan tattalin arziki. Amurka zata buƙaci ƙirƙirar guraben aiki kusan 400,000 a kowane wata kan tsawan shekaru kusan uku, domin dawowa kan matakan aiki na 2007.
Bayanai da alkalumma, da suka shafi bayar da tallafi, ceto da kuma shirye-shiryen sassaucin yawa a cikin Amurka, an shayar da su ko an tilasta musu abinci saboda sa hannun Bloomberg ta kotuna. Aura da waɗancan lambobin ba a canza suturar bashi ba. Hikimar da aka karɓa ita ce cewa a cikin kowane dala biyu na haɓaka Amurka ta 'sayi' dala takwas na bashi. Barin ainihin lalacewar ikon sayayya wannan ya haifar, saboda hauhawar farashi da aka ɓoye, shaidar rufin bashi tana nan baki da fari game da yadda farfadowar ta kasance cikin haƙiƙa.
An ɗaga rufin bashin sama da kashi 40% tun shekara ta 2008. atesididdiga sun nuna cewa an tara zunzurutun $ tiriliyan 5.2 domin aiwatar da 'warkewa', farfadowar da har yanzu ke ganin matakin da ya fi dacewa (U3) na rashin aikin yi a inda ya faro. , a 8.5%. Duk da duk wani tallafi da ceto (na sirri ko na bugawa) shirye-shiryen 'tarp' da kuma bashin bashi ya daukaka Amurka tayi daidai, ba a taba samun hakan ba sakamakon koma bayan tattalin arziki, an yi ta yada alakar dangantakar jama'a.
Kwatancen Burtaniya yayi kama da kama, kamar na Turai. Yawan marasa aikin yi a Burtaniya ya kai kashi 8.5%, amma duk da haka adadin marasa aikin yi sun kasance a matakin su mafi girma a cikin shekaru goma sha bakwai kuma bisa ga binciken gwamnati akwai iyalai miliyan 3.9 ba tare da 'mai karbar albashi' ba. Akwai kusan adultsan 4.8 miliyoyin Burtaniya akan fa'idodin aiki da ayyukan 400,000 da ake samu a kowane lokaci. Kuma tare da aiki kusan miliyan 20 wannan wadatar aikin yana wakiltar ƙididdigar yau da kullun na 'churn', 2%. Kama da Amurka, amma a wani karamin mizani, gwamnatocin Burtaniya duka sun yi yunƙurin 'siye hanyar su', suna barin Burtaniya tare da yawan bashin GDP da bashin sama da 900%, mafi munin a Turai wanda (a gefe ɗaya) shine me yasa yawancin masu sharhi da politiciansan siyasan Turai suke tambaya game da matsayin Burtaniya na AAA.
http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimony/12-15-11_TARP_Sanders_Testimony.pdf
Haƙiƙa ga Burtaniya da Amurka ita ce cewa ba su taɓa barin koma bayan tattalin arziki ba, kuma kamar yadda mutane da yawa suka ba da shawara (bayan faruwar lamarin a shekara ta 2008) a ƙoƙarin gujewa koma bayan tattalin arziki ikon da ƙasashen biyu ke so su yi na baƙin ciki kamar jihar da ba a shaida ba tun lokacin shekarun 1930.
Idan zan iya aron zancen Ba'amurke, shugabannin siyasa na Burtaniya, na Turai da na Amurka suna bukatar 'fess' ga jama'a game da halin da ake ciki. Yayin da sake zabar gajeren lokaci shine burinsu amma gaskiyar ta kasance cewa dukkan yankuna sun kasance a cikin 'kewayon tattalin arziki' tsawon shekaru hudu. Duk da mafi yawan kuɗaɗen ƙirƙirar kuɗi da aka gani tun lokacin da aka gabatar da tsarin banki na zamani 'haɓaka', kamar yadda aka auna ta hanyar mahimmancin amfani; ayyuka, abubuwan more rayuwa, tanadi kaɗan, bai faru ba.
Idan muka cire wadatattun kayan aikin ceto muka watsar da alfanun da ke tattare da ita, Amurka a yanzu ana ta jayayya da watannin 48 na koma bayan tattalin arziki, Birtaniya da Turai suna cikin 35-37th, yana mai sanya wannan koma bayan tattalin arziki mafi munin a cikin zamani 'rubuce'. Dukkanin gwamnatocin guda uku na iya son yin la'akari da yin muhawara ta gaskiya da gaskiya tare da wadanda zasu zaba kafin a samu rarrabuwar kawuna tsakanin haƙiƙanin gaskiya da juyawa kamar yadda ba za a iya misalta su ba kamar yadda lambobinsu da suka ɓata da ɓatarwa.
koma bayan tattalin arzikiukAmurka
« Shin Burtaniya ta dawo cikin matsalar tattalin arziki? Kamar yadda aka saukar da EFSF Shin Tsoho ne na Girkanci Yanzu Bazai Iya Zama Ba? »
Burtaniya Ta Dawo Cikin Hannun Tattalin Arziki Bai Taba Fitowa Ba
Janairu 16 • Sharhin kasuwancin • Ra'ayoyin 6098 • 1 Comment akan Burtaniya Ta Dawo Cikin Cigaban Tattalin Arziki Bai Fito Ba
Burtaniya Ta Dawo Cikin Hannun Tattalin Arziki Bai Taba Fitowa Ba. A Haƙiƙa Amurka Ba Ta Bambanta
Ma'anar koma bayan tattalin arziki ya canza a tsawon shekaru kuma ya bambanta daga ƙasa zuwa ƙasa da nahiyar zuwa nahiya. A cikin Burtaniya An bayyana koma bayan tattalin arziki azaman lokuta biyu masu zuwa na ci gaba mara kyau. A cikin Amurka ana ganin Kwamitin Sadarwa na Abokin Ciniki na Babban Ofishin Bincike na Tattalin Arziki (NBER) a matsayin hukuma don saduwa da koma bayan Amurka. NBER ta bayyana koma bayan tattalin arziki azaman:
raguwar ayyukan tattalin arziki ya bazu cikin tattalin arziƙi, wanda ya ɗauki fiye da monthsan watanni, yawanci ana gani a cikin GDP na ainihi, samun kuɗaɗen shiga, aikin yi, samar da masana'antu, da tallace-tallace-tallace-tallace.
Kusan a duk duniya, masana ilimi, masana tattalin arziki, masu tsara manufofi, da kasuwanci suna jinkirta ƙaddarar da NBER ke yi don tabbatar da dacewar farawar tattalin arziki da ƙarshenta. A takaice idan ci gaba 'ya kasance mara kyau' a cikin Amurka to ƙasar tana cikin matsalar tattalin arziki.
A cewar masana tattalin arziki, tun daga 1854, Amurka ta ci karo da zagaye 32 na fadadawa da ragin, tare da matsakaita na watanni 17 na ragin da kuma fadada watanni 38. Koyaya, tun daga 1980 akwai lokuta takwas kawai na ci gaban tattalin arziƙi sama da kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu na kasafin kuɗi ko fiye, kuma lokuta huɗu suna la'akari da koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Amurka koma bayan tattalin arziki tun 1980
Yulin 1981 - Nuwamba 1982: watanni 14
Yulin 1990 - Maris 1991: 8 months
Maris 2001 - Nuwamba 2001: 8 months
Disamba 2007 - Yuni 2009: 18 watanni
A cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki uku da suka gabata, shawarar NBER ta yi daidai da ma'anar da ke tattare da sau biyu a jere na raguwa. Duk da yake koma bayan tattalin arziki na 2001 bai ƙunshi raguwa biyu a jere ba, ya kasance gabanin kwata biyu na sauyawa baya da rauni mai rauni. Tabarbarewar Amurka na 2007 ya ƙare a watan Yuni, 2009 yayin da al'ummar ta shiga cikin farfadowar tattalin arzikin yanzu.
Adadin rashin aikin yi a Amurka ya karu zuwa kashi 8.5 cikin dari a cikin watan Maris na 2009, kuma akwai asarar ayyuka miliyan 5.1 har zuwa Maris din 2009 tun bayan koma bayan tattalin arziki a watan Disambar 2007. Wannan shi ne kusan mutane miliyan biyar da ba su da aikin yi idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata, wanda shi ne mafi girma tsalle na shekara-shekara a cikin yawan mutanen da ba su da aikin yi tun daga 1940s.
Batun koma bayan Burtaniya Tun 1970
Tsakanin matsin tattalin arziki na 1970s 1973-5, shekaru 2 (6 daga 9 Qtr). Ya ɗauki kwata 14 don GDP don murmurewa zuwa matsayi a farkon koma bayan tattalin arziki bayan 'tsoma biyu'.
Farkon koma bayan 1980s 1980- 1982, shekaru 2 (6 - 7 Qtr). Rashin aikin yi ya tashi 124% daga 5.3% na yawan masu aiki a watan Agusta 1979 zuwa 11.9% a 1984. Sun ɗauki 13 bariki don GDP don dawowa zuwa wancan a farkon 1980. Ya ɗauki 18 kwata don GDP ya dawo zuwa wancan a farkon koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Farkon koma bayan 1990s 1990-2 shekaru 1.25 (5 Qtr). Akarancin gibin kasafin kuɗi 8% na GDP. Rashin aikin yi ya tashi 55% daga 6.9% na yawan masu aiki a 1990 zuwa 10.7% a 1993. Sun ɗauki 13 bariki don GDP don dawo da hakan a farkon koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Late koma bayan tattalin arziki 2000, shekaru 1.5, 6 kwata. Fitarwa ya fadi da kashi 0.5% a cikin 2010 Q4. Adadin rashin aikin yi da farko ya tashi zuwa 8.1% (2.57m mutane) a watan Agusta 2011, matakin mafi girma tun 1994, daga baya an zarce shi. Ya zuwa Oktoba 2011, bayan kwata 14, GDP har yanzu ya ragu da kashi 4 cikin ɗari daga farkon lokacin koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Yadda 'Aka Sayi' Maido
Figuresididdigar koma bayan tattalin arziki ta Amurka 2008/2009 na nuna yadda Amurka ta tsaya cik kuma da ɗan 'ci gaban' da aka samu. Duk da yawan talla da bata gari gaskiyar lamarin shine Amurka har yanzu tana cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki. A watan Maris na 2009 rashin aikin yi ya kai kashi 8.5%, a yau ya kai kashi 8.5%. A watan Maris na 2009 miliyan 5.1 sun rasa ayyukansu, ƙididdiga yanzu suna ba da shawarar kusan asarar miliyan 9.0 na rashin aiki daga 2007-2012. Duk da kokarin da ake yi na juya shi in ba haka ba babu irin wannan lamarin a matsayin 'rashin dawowa aiki', Amurka har yanzu tana cikin mawuyacin halin koma bayan tattalin arziki. Amurka zata buƙaci ƙirƙirar guraben aiki kusan 400,000 a kowane wata kan tsawan shekaru kusan uku, domin dawowa kan matakan aiki na 2007.
Bayanai da alkalumma, da suka shafi bayar da tallafi, ceto da kuma shirye-shiryen sassaucin yawa a cikin Amurka, an shayar da su ko an tilasta musu abinci saboda sa hannun Bloomberg ta kotuna. Aura da waɗancan lambobin ba a canza suturar bashi ba. Hikimar da aka karɓa ita ce cewa a cikin kowane dala biyu na haɓaka Amurka ta 'sayi' dala takwas na bashi. Barin ainihin lalacewar ikon sayayya wannan ya haifar, saboda hauhawar farashi da aka ɓoye, shaidar rufin bashi tana nan baki da fari game da yadda farfadowar ta kasance cikin haƙiƙa.
An ɗaga rufin bashin sama da kashi 40% tun shekara ta 2008. atesididdiga sun nuna cewa an tara zunzurutun $ tiriliyan 5.2 domin aiwatar da 'warkewa', farfadowar da har yanzu ke ganin matakin da ya fi dacewa (U3) na rashin aikin yi a inda ya faro. , a 8.5%. Duk da duk wani tallafi da ceto (na sirri ko na bugawa) shirye-shiryen 'tarp' da kuma bashin bashi ya daukaka Amurka tayi daidai, ba a taba samun hakan ba sakamakon koma bayan tattalin arziki, an yi ta yada alakar dangantakar jama'a.
Kwatancen Burtaniya yayi kama da kama, kamar na Turai. Yawan marasa aikin yi a Burtaniya ya kai kashi 8.5%, amma duk da haka adadin marasa aikin yi sun kasance a matakin su mafi girma a cikin shekaru goma sha bakwai kuma bisa ga binciken gwamnati akwai iyalai miliyan 3.9 ba tare da 'mai karbar albashi' ba. Akwai kusan adultsan 4.8 miliyoyin Burtaniya akan fa'idodin aiki da ayyukan 400,000 da ake samu a kowane lokaci. Kuma tare da aiki kusan miliyan 20 wannan wadatar aikin yana wakiltar ƙididdigar yau da kullun na 'churn', 2%. Kama da Amurka, amma a wani karamin mizani, gwamnatocin Burtaniya duka sun yi yunƙurin 'siye hanyar su', suna barin Burtaniya tare da yawan bashin GDP da bashin sama da 900%, mafi munin a Turai wanda (a gefe ɗaya) shine me yasa yawancin masu sharhi da politiciansan siyasan Turai suke tambaya game da matsayin Burtaniya na AAA.
http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimony/12-15-11_TARP_Sanders_Testimony.pdf
Haƙiƙa ga Burtaniya da Amurka ita ce cewa ba su taɓa barin koma bayan tattalin arziki ba, kuma kamar yadda mutane da yawa suka ba da shawara (bayan faruwar lamarin a shekara ta 2008) a ƙoƙarin gujewa koma bayan tattalin arziki ikon da ƙasashen biyu ke so su yi na baƙin ciki kamar jihar da ba a shaida ba tun lokacin shekarun 1930.
Idan zan iya aron zancen Ba'amurke, shugabannin siyasa na Burtaniya, na Turai da na Amurka suna bukatar 'fess' ga jama'a game da halin da ake ciki. Yayin da sake zabar gajeren lokaci shine burinsu amma gaskiyar ta kasance cewa dukkan yankuna sun kasance a cikin 'kewayon tattalin arziki' tsawon shekaru hudu. Duk da mafi yawan kuɗaɗen ƙirƙirar kuɗi da aka gani tun lokacin da aka gabatar da tsarin banki na zamani 'haɓaka', kamar yadda aka auna ta hanyar mahimmancin amfani; ayyuka, abubuwan more rayuwa, tanadi kaɗan, bai faru ba.
Idan muka cire wadatattun kayan aikin ceto muka watsar da alfanun da ke tattare da ita, Amurka a yanzu ana ta jayayya da watannin 48 na koma bayan tattalin arziki, Birtaniya da Turai suna cikin 35-37th, yana mai sanya wannan koma bayan tattalin arziki mafi munin a cikin zamani 'rubuce'. Dukkanin gwamnatocin guda uku na iya son yin la'akari da yin muhawara ta gaskiya da gaskiya tare da wadanda zasu zaba kafin a samu rarrabuwar kawuna tsakanin haƙiƙanin gaskiya da juyawa kamar yadda ba za a iya misalta su ba kamar yadda lambobinsu da suka ɓata da ɓatarwa.
koma bayan tattalin arzikiukAmurka
« Shin Burtaniya ta dawo cikin matsalar tattalin arziki? Kamar yadda aka saukar da EFSF Shin Tsoho ne na Girkanci Yanzu Bazai Iya Zama Ba? »