Adadin GDP na Eurozone da aka fitar a ranar Talata, na iya jagorantar manufofin ECB a cikin 2018
Safiyar Talata wani taro ne mai matukar birgewa don fitowar kalandar tattalin arziki mai tasiri. Kafin motsawa zuwa maɓallin sakin rana; GDP na Eurozone, yana da mahimmanci mu hanzarta rufe duk sauran abubuwan da suke faruwa a ranar, ko kafin 10:00 na safe agogon GMT.
An buga sabon adadi na GDP na Jamus, ana tsammanin zai zo a cikin 2.3% YoY girma a Q3, wannan zai wakilci ci gaba daga 2.1% da aka rubuta a Q2. Idan ya dace da ci gaba mai ƙarfi lokacin da aka fitar da adadi mafi girma na GDP, yawan zai iya ba da kwarin gwiwa ga masu aiwatar da manufofin kuɗi da kuɗaɗen Eurozone, don yin gyara a cikin 2018. Bayan shan wahala a wani mawuyacin lokaci a cikin recentan shekarun nan, Italia ma tana nuna alamun dawo da karfi; An yi hasashen GDP zai shigo cikin 1.7% na Q3, daga 1.5% a cikin Q2. A matsayinta na jagorar masana'antun masana'antu da fitar da kayayyaki, tare da banki kuma suna taka muhimmiyar rawa, ba za a manta da gudummawar da Italiya ke bayarwa ga ci gaban Yankin na Yuro.
Tattalin arzikin Burtaniya zai zo a karkashin madubin hangen nesa a ranar Talata yayin da aka fitar da sabon alkaluman hauhawar farashi, mafi shaharar karatu shi ne tsarin CPI. Tsammani shine cewa CPI zai tashi zuwa 3.1% YoY a watan Oktoba, daga 3% da aka rubuta a watan Satumba. Babban bankin Burtaniya BoE ya kara darajar tushe da 0.25% zuwa 0.5% a farkon wannan watan (Nuwamba 2 ga Nuwamba), a kokarin dakile matsin hauhawar farashi. Sun yi tsammani fam zai tashi tare da takwarorinsa tare da hauhawar riba, don rage shigar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
Koyaya, fam ɗin ya kasa tashi, kasancewar an sami farashi mai ƙima, saboda jagorar ci gaba da aka bayar a baya da kuma rakiyar BoE mai ba da labari, wanda ya ba da shawarar cewa haɓakar 0.25% za ta zama ɗaya; Tashin ba zai nuna alamar harbin bindiga ba don tsarin da za a hauhawa a cikin tsari a shekara ta 2018. An yi hasashen hauhawar farashin shigar da kudi ga Burtaniya ya ragu sosai daga 8.4% zuwa 4.7%, wannan ma wani adadi ne na manazarta ya kamata su mai da hankali sosai, kamar yadda haɗe da ma'aunin CPI, yana nuna idan matsin hauhawar farashin kaya daga Burtaniya yana daidaitawa.
Yayin da muke matsawa kan bayanan Eurozone sabbin binciken ZEW na Jamus da Eurozone ana gabatar dasu ne don halin da ake ciki da halin tattalin arziki, yayin da babban taron shuwagabannin babban banki ke gudana a cikin hanyar ECB panel; Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda da Carney, waɗanda suka haɗu kuma suka yi magana a Frankfurt.
Safiyarmu mai ban mamaki na fitowar muhimman abubuwa ga Turai, an rufe yayin da wannan taron ke gudana, tare da fitowar sabon Q3 adadi na Eurozone GDP. Abun jira shine na adadi na Q3 don rikodin ci gaban 0.6%, tare da adadi na YoY yana riƙe adadi mai girma na 2.5%. Idan Jamus, Italia da Yankin Eurozone suka buga lambobin karfafa GDP, to manazarta da 'yan kasuwa na iya yanke hukuncin cewa Mario Draghi da ECB yanzu suna da alburusai masu mahimmanci don fara ɓarnatar da shirin siye kadara na yanzu.
Bugu da ƙari, ana iya yin la'akari da sauƙaƙe yanki ɗaya na ƙungiyar yanzu daga ƙimar ƙimar amfani da ƙimar ƙira. A dabi'ance, da wuya Draghi ya bayyana irin wannan yanke shawara a jawabin da taron tare da takwarorinsa na manyan bankunan, amma akwai yiwuwar idan abubuwa uku na GDP suke da karfi, to tambayar zata bayyana. Tare da yiwuwar ƙimar Amurka Fed zata iya tashi a cikin watan Disamba, lokacin da FOMC suka haɗu a karo na ƙarshe a cikin 2017 da kuma UK BoE suma suna haɓaka ƙimomi, tambayar ita ce "har yaushe ECB zata iya gujewa bin sahun?" Koyaya, Euro mai ɗan ƙarfi zai cutar da ci gaban tattalin arzikin da ake ciki yanzu, wanda yankin ke jin daɗin sa?
Ranar ta ƙare da sabon GDP ɗin Japan da aka fitar. A halin yanzu a 2.5%, hasashen na faduwa zuwa 1.5% na Q3. Yayin da wannan zai wakilci gagarumar faɗuwa, duk wani tasiri akan yen na iya yin shiru, idan tuni kasuwanni suka yi farashin faɗuwar.
TATTALIN MULKIN KUDI
• Hawan hauhawar farashin kashi 1.4%.
• Gwamnati. bashi v GDP 89.2%.
• GDP na ci gaban shekara-shekara 2.5%.
• Rashin aikin yi 8.9%.
• Kudin sha'awa kashi 0.0%.
• Hadadden PMI 56.
• Ci gaban tallace-tallace na girma YoY 3.7%.
• Bashin gida v GDP 58.5%.
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