Seachain an bearna; Nuashonrú Margaidh Londain agus Réamhamharc Nua Eabhrac…
The UK balance of payments data has been 
published in the morning London session. The prediction was for a minus £11.9 bn deficit, but the figure came in far worse than the economists’ predictions at £14.5 bn, thereby exceeding the previous month’s figure by €0.9 bn. This figure represents 3.6% of UK GDP. Business investment in the UK has fallen by 1.9%, this despite various UK govt initiatives such as lending for funding. Finally the UK GDP figure was confirmed at the estimate of 0.3% growth for the quarter.
However, hidden amongst the raft of UK published data delivered by the UK’s official bodies this morning, an outlier statistic will shine a light into the real issues UK citizens are facing in their ‘real’ economy. UK disposable income has fallen to its lowest level since 1987…
Another ‘outlier’ published this morning shows that the fall in the UK economy (post the economic crisis beginning in 2007/2008) was in fact far worse than originally calculated. The UK’s economy is 3.9% smaller than 2007, as the peak to trough measurement from the ONS was revised to a fall of 7.2% and not the 6.3% originally calculated. It’s notable that the USA, Germany and most notably France in direct comparison to the UK have since reclaimed their post slump GDP figures.
Oscail Cuntas Taispeántais Forex SAOR IN AISCE Anois le Cleachtadh
Trádáil Forex I dTimpeallacht Trádála Fíor-Bheo & Gan Riosca!
The overall assessment regarding these latest UK figures is that the UK, despite the mathematical claims that the double-dip recession never happened, is in an incredibly feeble ‘recovery’ and this recovery is despite (and after) the various; bank rescues, bailouts, £375 bn of quantitative easing, funding for lending schemes and a recent under-writing of mortgage lending by the govt up to a loose ceiling of £130 bn. With a budget deficit of 6.3% of GDP the UK continues to have one of the highest budget deficits in the European Union despite years of austerity measures. Only debt-ravaged Spain, Ireland, Greece and Portugal spent higher percentages of their gross domestic product (GDP) on deficit repayments in 2012.
The German unemployment figures printed in the London morning session have defied most analysts’ predictions. The unemployment number fell by 12,000 to 2.94 million this after a revised improvement of 17,000 in the month of May.
Comhaontú fóirithinte Banc Limistéar an Euro aontaithe.
Europe’s finance ministers agreed new rules to contain the cost of future bank bailouts, which will see losses forced onto creditors, such as large depositers as well as bond holders and shareholders. In Brussels, ministers agreed rules ensuring that creditors are ‘bailed in’ to help recover the cost of future rescue deals. This will end the era of taxpayers automatically picking up the tab. This will perhaps usher in the Eurozone banking union that the UK will be isolated from.
The key aspect to the overall deal is that 8% of a failing bank’s total liabilities ranked by first shareholders, then junior bondholders, then ‘uninsured deposits’ (over €100,000) – must be effectively ‘wiped out’ before any public funds can be used.
Faigh amach d’acmhainn le Cuntas Cleachtais SAOR IN AISCE & Gan Riosca
Cliceáil Chun Do Chuntas a Éileamh Anois!
Deposits of under €100,000 will remain protected, creating a significant surety for private depositors. The overall framework agreed by EU ministers places big deposits held by large companies first in the ‘firing line’, before those of smaller companies and individuals.
Innéacsanna.
UK indices have risen for their third day to be up 0.35% at 6192 at the time of writing. The equity indies future for the DJIA is up at 14928, once again threatening to challenge the psyche level of 15,000. The Standard & Poor’s equity index future is up a similar level to the DJIA at 0.1% The STOXX 600 European index has fallen by 0.2% in the morning session and by 5.6% in June, its first monthly fall in over a year.
Forex i bhfócas
Tá láthair an euro cothrom faoi láthair i seisiún lár na maidine i Londain, méadú circa 0.06% i gcomparáid leis an gcúl glas. In ainneoin gur sáraíodh an leibhéal laethúil pointe mhaighdeog, níor éirigh leis aon mhóiminteam ardú a bhaint amach i dtreo na chéad líne friotaíochta. Shleamhnaigh an greenback 0.2 faoin gcéad go $1.3031 in aghaidh an euro ag pointe amháin. Bhain sé le $1.2985 inné, an leibhéal is láidre a chonacthas ó 3 Meitheamh.
Thit an punt suas le 0.3 faoin gcéad go $1.5269 am Londain, tar éis dó teagmháil a dhéanamh le $1.5264, an leibhéal is ísle a chonacthas ó 3 Meitheamh. Laghdaigh sé 0.4 faoin gcéad go 85.33 pingin in aghaidh an euro.
Thit Yen suas le 0.3 faoin gcéad i gcomparáid lena 16 piaraí móra go léir, ag méadú a ghnóthachain mhíosúla, agus d'ardaigh stoic na hÁise. Laghdaigh airgeadra na Seapáine 0.4 faoin gcéad go 98.12 in aghaidh an dollar i seisiún Londain. Thit sé 0.6 faoin gcéad go 127.88 in aghaidh an euro.
D'ardaigh dollar Aussie 0.5 faoin gcéad i gcomparáid leis an gcúl glas go 93.20 cent SAM i seisiún trádála Sydney, tar éis 0.9 faoin gcéad a fháil le ceithre sheisiún anuas. Chaill sé 2.6 faoin gcéad go dtí seo an mhí seo.
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